In today’s complex international landscape, the global order is becoming more unstable by the day. This instability negatively impacts the balance of imports and exports of global resources—as exemplified by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp rise in energy prices—which, in turn, disrupts supply chains and creates serious instability in the global economy.
The world today;
• Global warming,
• Climate change,
• Over-militarization,
• Migration,
• Radicalization,
• Israeli colonialism,
• Food security,
• Cyber security risks,
• Risks along trade routes,
• International lawlessness,
• Threats to logistics hubs, and
• Multidimensional security challenges extending to societal moral issues (such as the erosion of values regarding LGBT and values education). These threats to humanity indicate that the world has effectively entered a “century of crises.”
The global system, grappling with countless crises, is also undergoing profound changes and transformations. As a result of these changes and transformations, in the coming years, many states will either vanish from the map or see their borders redrawn. In other words, there are strong indications that the era of Western hegemony is nearing its end and that a new hegemonic actor—one that will lead and shape the global system—is emerging. Experts are making strong assessments regarding the likelihood that this hegemonic state will be China.
During the First and Second World Wars, the Soviet Union, Japan, and European nations lost power by fighting one another. The United States (U.S.), which joined World War II later, became the global victor by dropping atomic bombs on Japan. One of the most effective factors in the U.S.’s rise as a hegemonic power after World War II was its ability to produce atomic bombs through nuclear weapons technology and thereby establish a deterrent against its rivals.
After 1945, while the U.S. used the atomic bomb and military deterrence as a threat, it also imposed dollar hegemony on the world. Similarly, it is evident that U.S. interests were decisive in the establishment of institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the United Nations (UN), and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Over time, these institutions have become instruments of global order, which sometimes works in favor of other states and sometimes against them.
According to George Modelski’s Theory of Long Cycles, on average once every 100 years, a nation-state rises to the position of a hegemonic power within the global political system, and this process continues in cyclical rhythms. According to Modelski, the evolution of the global political system began during the Song Dynasty in what is now China. From the 11th to the 15th century, Eurasia served as the active center of the world system. One of the primary reasons for this was that economic and technological advancements—such as the printing press, the compass, gunpowder, and firearms—directly influenced global political transformation. In other words, these technological innovations were the fundamental factors determining the direction of global hegemony.
Throughout history, various factors have played a decisive role in a state’s rise to regional and global power status. Additionally, the geopolitical and geostrategic positions of various states have influenced their ascent to leadership within the framework of import and export balances.
In this context, one of the primary reasons for the Ottoman Empire’s emergence as a global power in the 15th and 16th centuries was that Anatolia served as a crucial trade route between the East and the West. The passage of the historic Silk Road through Anatolia provided the Ottomans with substantial economic revenues, and these revenues supported the Ottoman Empire’s rise and its position as a global power in the 16th century. Therefore, in the global system, a state’s ability to become a hegemonic power hinges on its geographical advantages and its position at the intersection of trade corridors and logistics centers. However, the emergence of new sea- and ocean-based trade routes that bypassed Anatolia following the Age of Discovery led to the Ottoman Empire’s loss of economic power.
The use of coal in steam-powered ships during the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, the strategic importance of oil—particularly in aviation—in the 19th century, and the growing importance of natural gas in the 20th century all contributed to the rise of British and American global hegemony.
In summary, technological advancements in the effective and efficient use of energy sources—such as the printing press, the compass, gunpowder, firearms, coal, oil, and natural gas—have determined the direction of global power and/or global hegemony.
Today, there are strong indications that the world order established under U.S. hegemony following World War II has reached a stage of collapse. These indications are briefly summarized below:
• The Trump administration’s decision to leave a total of about 66 international organizations—including approximately 31 UN-affiliated ones—as of January 2026,
• The failure of organizations founded by the U.S., such as NATO and the UN, to produce solutions to regional and global crises and their subsequent dysfunction,
• The rise of mid-sized regional powers such as Turkey, India, Brazil, Russia, and Saudi Arabia,
• China’s rapid advancement in political, military, economic, cultural, and especially technological fields,
• The inability of the U.S. and Israel to defeat Iran in the face of Russia and China,
• The significant trade deficits in U.S.-China trade that have developed to the detriment of the United States,
• The erosion of the dollar’s status as a reserve currency with each passing day,
• NATO’s loss of its former strength and the growing debate over its potential dissolution,
• The declining confidence of countries such as Europe, the Gulf states, and Japan in the U.S. alliance,
• NATO’s failure to ensure European security during the Russia-Ukraine War,
• The loss of global prestige suffered by both Israel and the U.S. due to Israel’s attacks in the region—such developments indicate that U.S. global power is waning.
During the Cold War, the U.S. supported China’s admission to the UN Security Council in 1971 to counterbalance the Soviet Union. China, which began opening up to the outside world in the 1980s, has rapidly risen politically, economically, militarily, culturally, and technologically, particularly after joining the WTO in 2001. Accelerating its development since the 2000s, China announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, aiming to circulate its goods, services, and capital on a global scale and establish a vast network of connectivity. Much like the United States, which built its hegemony after World War II by forming alliances through institutions such as the Bretton Woods system, the UN, NATO, and the WTO, China is also attempting to implement a model of rise through the BRI.
In parallel with this initiative, China is expanding its network of alliances with Global South countries through organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. These organizations are emerging as entities that challenge the dollar-centric system, and their growing strength is interpreted as a sign of the weakening of American hegemony.
The continuity of U.S. global dominance depends on three key factors:
• First, the continuity of institutions established under U.S. leadership, such as the UN, NATO, and the WTO;
• Second, control over oil and natural gas reserves;
• Third, control over international trade corridors and logistics hubs.
When analyzed in the context of recent crises and technological advancements, it is evident that the U.S.’s influence in these three areas is rapidly eroding.
Following the attacks on the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, the United States launched a military intervention in Afghanistan under the pretext of combating Islamic terrorism. This intervention was carried out alongside strategic objectives aimed at establishing a U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and limiting China’s regional influence. In other words, the U.S. went to Afghanistan to stop China. However, the U.S. presence in Afghanistan failed to prevent China’s strategic expansion toward the West via the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. In the ensuing period, the U.S. failed to achieve its intended outcomes in regional conflicts and wars centered on Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and suffered setbacks in these areas.
Due to its failure in the war against Iran, the U.S. has seen its influence weaken along the route spanning the Caspian Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal. The weakening of U.S. power in these areas reflects that its control over global energy reserves, trade corridors, and logistics hubs is no longer as strong as it once was.
Since the early 2000s, China has been investing in new power dynamics, particularly through rare earth elements and critical minerals. Just as printing, the compass, gunpowder, and fossil fuels shaped global hegemony in the past, it is believed that rare earth elements and critical minerals could play a similar role today.
Rare earth elements and critical minerals are:
• Essential in all types of renewable energy systems and nuclear reactors,
• Critical to the entire defense industry, including UAVs/UCAVs, the F-35, and missile systems,
• Vital in all digital technologies such as phones, tablets, and computers,
• Essential in all electrification processes, and
• In the production of all electric vehicles.
Due to the emerging needs in the above-mentioned areas, many countries, including the United States, are compelled to develop cooperation with China. This situation will contribute to strengthening China’s position as a global power and/or its global hegemony.
The U.S. has attempted to pressure China through chip technologies, tariffs, and energy geopolitics, but has failed. Developments related to the Iran Crisis and the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, have incurred certain economic and strategic costs for the U.S. In other words, the U.S. sought to pressure and control China through Iran by playing the “oil card,” but the rise in energy prices has negatively impacted the U.S. During this process, it is evident that China has gained geopolitical advantages without engaging in direct conflict, that rising energy prices have also provided economic benefits to Russia, and that Russia has secured certain advantages over Europe in the context of Ukraine. In a sense, China is achieving victory over the U.S. without firing a single shot. This is because the U.S. has been unable to develop a strategy for extricating itself from the Iranian quagmire in the Middle East.
China holds a significant portion of the world’s reserves with its 44 million-ton rare earth reserve. According to 2024 data from the U.S. Geological Survey;[i] when listing the top six countries with the largest rare earth reserves after China, the order is Brazil (21,000 tons), India (6,900 tons), Australia (5,700 tons), Russia (3,800 tons), Vietnam (3,500 tons), and the U.S. (1,900 tons).
According to 2023 production data, China accounted for nearly 70% of global production with 240,000 tons.[ii] The United States, with 25,000 tons of production[iii] and a share of around 10%—lagged far behind China. This situation demonstrates that China is the dominant actor not only in terms of reserve size but also in terms of production capacity, processing capability, and market dominance.
As a result, demand for rare earth elements and critical minerals is growing day by day across many sectors, ranging from military technologies to electric vehicles, and from nuclear and small modular reactors to clean energy systems. The chances of actors that establish strong control over these resources becoming the global hegemonic powers of the future are rising. When analyzing the power cycle that occurs on average every 100 years according to Modelski’s long-cycle theory, it becomes evident that China possesses important advantages in capitalizing on this window of opportunity.
[i] “Çin-ABD geriliminde nadir toprak elementleri ağırlığını koruyor”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/cin-abd-geriliminde-nadir-toprak-elementleri-agirligini-koruyor/3538535, (Date Accessed: 28.04.2026).
[ii] “Mining of rare earth metals | China”, Statbase, https://statbase.org/data/chn-rare-earth-metals-production/, (Date Accessed: 28.04.2026).
[iii] “Mining of rare earth metals | United States”, Statbase, https://statbase.org/data/usa-rare-earth-metals-production/, (Date Accessed: 28.04.2026).
