“Although New START has expired, the failure to renew this treaty can be regarded as a significant indicator of the fragility rooted in mistrust within the international system. Such uncertainties in treaties like New START increase the risk of miscalculation by reducing transparency and predictability, particularly between the U.S. and Russia; conversely, it can be argued that these mechanisms facilitate crisis management by enabling parties to comprehend one another’s capacities.
Noting that such ‘systemic uncertainties’ emerge as a ‘tool of fear’ for states to exert political pressure not only on their adversaries but also on all other actors, Erol pointed out that recent developments have heightened security concerns in certain countries and stated that the idea of acquiring nuclear weapons has become more visible, albeit at a discursive level:
‘However, there is a critical distinction here: an increase in debate is not synonymous with an actual wave of armament. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) still provides a robust legal and normative framework. Furthermore, developing nuclear weapons entails risks of severe economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and regional instability. Parallel to the rising perception of risk, there is currently a tendency—though partial—toward spiraling out of control. Yet, this still follows a controlled course, as the process has not yet evolved into a widespread nuclear arms race. Although the system is weakening, it has not rendered itself entirely dysfunctional.'”
