India and Pakistan are two rival neighboring countries of South Asia. The parties come to the fore with the Kashmir Issue and border problems, which have not been resolved for years. However, this is not the only matter in dispute between them. The Indus Water Issue is also one of the disputes between Islamabad and New Delhi.
A new development took place on 27 January 2023 regarding the dispute in question. The first hearing of the case regarding the Indus Waters Treaty began at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, as the Government of India did not acknowledge Pakistan’s concerns expressed in various bilateral talks.[1] As a result of the two day Arbitration Court, it is expected that the preliminary proceedings will be initiated with restrictions on India and Pakistan. It is known that no information will be shared on the subject until the final decision is taken.
The dispute, which has been taken to court, stems from India’s hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi has the 850 MW Ratle Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab River and the 330 MW Kishenganga Hydroelectric Project on the Jhelum River. Pakistan claims that if India built the 850-megawatt Ratle Hydroelectric Project of its own design, the Chenab River at Head Marala would reduce water flow by 40% and harm irrigation in the Punjab Province.[2]
Expressing the issue at the Permanent Indus Commission held in 2021, the Islamabad administration sought a solution in the meetings held at the government level in New Delhi in July 2015. On August 19, 2016, it started the legal process. It requested the establishment of an ad hoc Arbitration Court pursuant to Article 9 of the Indus Waters Treaty. In the statement made in the court, it was stated that Islamabad had to take this step after its efforts to negotiate with New Delhi through other forums failed.[3]
On January 27, 2023, news emerged that India notified Pakistan to amend the Indus Waters Treaty. It was stated that India boycotted the Court of Arbitration and called for meetings to resolve the long-standing dispute within 90 days in a statement sent to Pakistan. However, it is also stated that Pakistan opposes the declaration.[4]
The Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates the use of Indus River waters, was signed in 1960. The river originates in the Tibet Autonomous Region in southwest China and flows through the disputed Kashmir Region to Pakistan. From there, it empties into the Arabian Sea. It merges a large number of tributaries, mainly the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers in the East Punjab Plain.[5] Many branches pass through the Line of Control, which separates the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir from the Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir.[6] India has about 20% of the total water carried by the Indus system and Pakistan 80%.[7]
The aforementioned agreement offers the parties two ways to resolve disputes that may arise regarding the distribution of water from any of the rivers. First option; it is the Court of Arbitration, which deals with legal, technical and systemic issues. The other is to resolve the issue with an impartial expert who only handles technical issues. India looked more favorably on the second option and asked for expert to be appointed. Pakistan, on the other hand, favored the first option; therefore no consensus has been reached.[8] The hydroelectric projects on the Indus River and its tributaries added a new dimension to the disagreement in question.
The parties formed working groups to discuss the sharing and use of waters. Various interviews were made between the groups. One of these is the meeting of the Indus Waters Commissioners of India and Pakistan on 23 and 24 March 2021. The two countries met for the 116th time to exchange views within the scope of the Indus Waters Treaty in New Delhi.[9]
It is still unclear to what extent the disagreement between Pakistan and India, which has come to the fore with different agendas recently will reach. However, it can be said that the issue is a new tension front. As a matter of fact, the issue of water sharing is becoming more important every passing day. Especially the fact that it takes place between actors who already have conflict dynamic makes the issue important.
It is also important that the region in question is a controversial geography like Kashmir. This means that violent activities are a high probability to increase. Accordingly the subject is sensitive. It can be said that the competition on water and border management will continue to rank high in the relations between the two countries.
However, there is a possibility that countries tend to act more moderately in such disputes due to different developments. Indeed such positive steps have been taken recently. Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif called for talks with India on all unresolved issues, including Kashmir; New Delhi also invited Islamabad to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. While there is a positive and moderate process between the two countries; it can be said that reappear of tensions will not be preferred due to the Indus Waters issue. At least in the short term, it can be foreseeable that the parties will not want this.
[1] “First Hearing of Indus Water Dispute Begins at the Hague”, The News, https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1034857-first-hearing-of-indus-water-dispute-begins-at-the-hague, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2023).
[2] “India-Pakistan Legal Battle Over Water-Sharing Begins in the Hague”, Anadolu Agency, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/india-pakistan-legal-battle-over-water-sharing-begins-in-the-hague/2799016, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2023).
[3] “First Hearing of Indus…”, op.cit.
[4] “Pakistan Opposes India’s Notice to Alter Indus Water Treaty as First Hearing on Dispute Begins at The Hague”, Tribune India, https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/pakistan-opposes-indias-notice-to-alter-indus-treaty-as-first-hearing-on-dispute-begins-at-the-hague-474323, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2023).
[5] “Indus Waters Treaty”, Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/event/Indus-Waters-Treaty, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2023).
[6] “Water Conflict and Cooperation Between India and Pakistan”, Climate Diplomacy, https://climate-diplomacy.org/case-studies/water-conflict-and-cooperation-between-india-and-pakistan, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2023).
[7] ““Pak Actions Have Forced…”: India Issues Notice Over Indus Waters Treaty”, NDTV, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-issues-notice-to-pakistan-seeking-modification-of-indus-water-treaty-cites-its-intransigence-sources-3728063, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2023).
[8] “First Hearing of Indus…”, op.cit.
[9] “The Indus Waters Treaty: Prospects for India-Pakistan Peace”, ISAS, https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/the-indus-waters-treaty-prospects-for-india-pakistan-peace/, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2023).
