The new sanctions decisions taken by the administration of United States President Donald Trump against Cuba show that the historical tension on the Washington–Havana line has hardened once again. The new sanctions, which particularly target the energy, defense, finance, and security sectors, are evaluated not only as a continuation of economic pressure policies but also as part of the United States’ efforts to reestablish its influence in Latin America. These decisions, described by Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla as “illegal” and “abusive,” have the potential to further deepen the current economic and humanitarian problems on the island.[i]
When the historical background of the sanctions against Cuba is examined, it becomes clear that the issue is not limited solely to current political crises. Following the revolution led by Fidel Castro in 1959 and the overthrow of the U.S.-backed government, this development meant, for Washington, not only an ideological loss but also the strengthening of Soviet influence in the Western Hemisphere. The economic embargo policy that began in 1960 subsequently became one of the main foreign policy instruments of the United States toward Cuba throughout the Cold War. The continuation of sanctions despite the passage of decades demonstrates the existence of a structural continuity in U.S. policy toward Cuba.
The new sanctions of the Trump administration are particularly noteworthy in terms of targeting the energy sector. The Cuban economy has long been struggling with energy crises. The country, which is heavily dependent on oil imports, has been experiencing serious fuel shortages due to the economic collapse in Venezuela and fluctuations in international energy markets. U.S. pressure on oil transportation and the tariffs it is considering imposing on third countries are making Cuba’s energy supply chain more fragile. Indeed, the recent power outages across the island have directly affected not only economic activities but also health, transportation, and education services.
At this point, debates over whether the U.S. sanctions are aimed at “regime change” are coming back to the agenda. The statements made by Trump in his speech in Florida, to the effect that Cuba would “surrender in a very short time,” can be read as an open display of power beyond diplomatic conventions.[ii] In particular, the rhetoric he used regarding the dispatch of an aircraft carrier off the coast of Cuba evokes the interventionist American foreign policy approach that remained influential for a long time in the history of Latin America. This situation may lead to the renewed strengthening of anti U.S. discourse in the region.
The Cuban administration, for its part, defines the sanctions not only as economic pressure but also as a policy of “collective punishment.[iii] The statements made by Miguel Díaz Canel reveal that the Havana administration sees the American embargo as the main party responsible for the current economic problems. Indeed, the energy crisis in Cuba, the shortage of medicine, transportation problems, and the difficulties experienced in access to basic consumer goods show how severe the social effects of the sanctions are. However, there is an important point that must be taken into consideration here: it is not sufficient to explain all of the economic problems in Cuba solely through American sanctions. The inefficiencies of the centrally planned system, low production capacity, shortage of foreign currency, and the lack of structural reforms are also among the major causes of the current crisis.
There is also a possibility that the pressure policy of the Washington administration may produce the opposite effect. When examined historically, policies of external intervention and sanctions have strengthened nationalist reflexes in Cuba. Anti-Americanism continues to be one of the most fundamental elements of Cuban revolutionary discourse. The protests held in front of the U.S. Embassy during May Day demonstrations also reflect this situation. Therefore, although the sanctions may put pressure on the regime in the short term, they carry the risk of strengthening the government’s internal legitimacy in the long term.
On the other hand, these developments are important not only in terms of U.S.–Cuba relations but also in terms of the geopolitical balances in Latin America. The increasing influence of China and Russia in the region in recent years has pushed the United States to pursue a more aggressive Latin America policy once again. Countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua are often evaluated by Washington as part of an “anti-American bloc.” For this reason, the sanctions against Cuba are not only a reflection of bilateral relations but also of great power competition.
Russia’s provision of energy support to Cuba is noteworthy. However, the statement that only one Russian oil tanker was able to reach Cuba shows that U.S. pressure is also affecting the Moscow–Havana energy line.[iv] However, Russia’s tension with the West due to the Ukraine War makes its relations with allied countries such as Cuba strategic. Similarly, China continues to increase its economic influence in Latin America. For this reason, the United States’ harsh sanctions policies may push countries in the region toward alternative partnerships.
The hard rhetoric of the Trump administration toward Cuba can also be read in the context of U.S. domestic politics. In particular, the Cuban migrant community in Florida constitutes an important voter base in American elections. The traditional support of Republican candidates for hardline anti-Cuba policies is also connected with electoral calculations. In this context, the sanctions constitute not only a foreign policy choice but also a message directed at domestic politics.
A controversial process is also emerging in terms of international law. For many years, the United Nations General Assembly has adopted resolutions calling for the lifting of the U.S. embargo on Cuba. A large part of the international community criticizes the effects of the sanctions on civilians. In this framework, the emphasis by Foreign Minister Rodriguez on the United Nations Charter gains meaning. However, the United States defends the sanctions on the grounds of national security and human rights. This situation once again makes visible the tension between international law and great power politics.
In conclusion, the new wave of U.S. sanctions against Cuba shows that the historical conflict between the two countries is still alive today. For Cuba, which is struggling with energy crises, economic bottlenecks, and political tensions, the social effects of these sanctions may be severe. However, it remains uncertain whether Washington’s pressure policies will achieve the goal of regime change. On the contrary, such policies may strengthen anti American discourse in Cuba and increase the internal political resilience of the Havana administration.
[i] Mitchell, Ottilie. “Cuba Condemns New US Sanctions as ‘Illegal’ and ‘Abusive.’”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy21n1970vo, (Access Date: 10.05.2026).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid.
