Introduction
Border dispute issue is prominent issue determining Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan relations. This issue has been going on since the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, these countries faced not only border problems among themselves, but also economic, social and political problems. These internal problems are also reflected in the relations between neighbors. The solution of the border dispute has either been impossible or postponed. The continuation of these problems has at times led to border tensions and armed conflict between the border security forces of the two countries. Border confllict have also adversely affected relations between countries. Only half of the 987 km common border between the two neighbours could be agreed upon. Discussions continue in the border areas close to 70%.
Crisis Zones and Search for Solutions
Conflicts arise at certain points. Conflicts are taking place in the Ak-Sai, Kok-Taş, Samarkand, Tajik Corku and Surh regions of the Kyrgyz villages, moreover around the Voruh enclave, which is connected to the territory of Tajikistan with a single connection. The mutual claims of the Kyrgyz and Tajiks living in the border region hinder the reconciliation process. Controversies over a growing population, poor cultivable land, scarcity of water resources and local transport infrastructure create problems. Also, uncertainty about who belongs to the region is one of the main problems. Intercalarily, criminal groups, who is emerging in the border areas, are trying to take control over the borderlines into their own hands. This situation makes the solution of the existing confusion more crucial. Tensions on the border between the two countries often lead to conflicts that result in loss of life.
Dushanbe and Bishkek have been trying to solve the border problem for many years. The parties have established an intergovernmental commission on the determination of state borders and negotiations have been made on this issue since the beginning of the 2000s. Meetings are held three or four times a year with the participation of experts from the relevant departments of both countries. At the meetings, representatives of both neighboring countries, as a rule, refer to various documents and maps of the Soviet era.
In July 2019, President of Tajikistan, Imamali Rahman, and President of Kyrgyzstan, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, met for the first time directly in disputed areas. It was agreed that the “simple to complex” issues would be addressed and that local residents should abide by this consensus process. Despite the agreement between the parties on some issues, tensions at the border can turn into armed conflicts. The conflicts in recent years have become more violent and have caused more loss of life.
On 12-13 April 2020, the Kyrgyz Border Servise said that clashes broke out as a result of Tajik soldiers opening fire in the Selkan area of the Leilek district of the Batken region. A year later, in April 2021, approximately 20 people from both sides lost their lives in the armed conflict that broke out in border regions such as Ak-Say, Ak-Tatır and Samarkand. About 150 people were injured. Tajikistan has seized a region as a result of attacking Kyrgyzstan by sending heavy weapons to the border. He attacked the military quarters on the border and rendered it unusable. The conflicts of 2021, one of the most violent conflicts of the recent period, have brought both countries to the brink of war. After the direct negotiations between the parties, the tension decreased and the problems were temporarily frozen.
On January 27, 2022, a new development took place on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. After the Tort-Kocho settlement of the Batken district on the Tajik side decided to close the Batken-Isfana highway, an armed conflict between the Kyrgyz Border Security Forces who tried to prevent this. Kyrgyzstan interpreted these events as a pre-planned initiative by Tajikistan. Following mutual accusations, Kyrgyz and Tajik officials held a meeting on January 28, 2022 in the Surh settlement of the city of Isfar. After negotiations between the parties, a cemse-fire could be achieved. A numen of issues have been agreed upon:
- A complete cease-fire should be achieved;
- Withdrawal of weapons to the barracks;
- Opening of traffic on the Batken-Isfana road;
- Joint patrols of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Law Enforcement Forces in border areas to prevent conflicts.
The parties also agreed on the establishment of a joint commission to detect conflicts in the border regions.1
Both the Kyrgyz and Tajik sides continued to come together with the idea that the interim negotiations would prevent possible larger conflicts. On March 12, 2022, a meeting was held at the Guliston-Avtodorozhny Checkpoint in Tajikistan. Following talks with the participation of the representatives of the two countries responsible for border security, the parties announced that they had reached an agreement on a number of issues:
- The Parties agreed to take strict measures to implement intergovernmental agreements and protocols on the coordination of efforts to prevent incidents in the border areas of the two countries.
- The border representatives of the two countries agree to do explanatory work between military personnel, the non-submission of military personnel to provocations, and to act more constructively against personalities who exacerbate the situation on the border.
- The border representatives of the parties shall be in constant communication with each other regarding developments. Military personnel of the two countries are prohibited from using weapons, except as required by the legal regulations of both sides.
- All military personnel are obliged to strictly comply with the requirements of the line of conduct of border guards on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.
Following the meeting between the delegations, the representatives of the Batken and Sughd regions held a separate meeting and discussed the issues related to the economic activities of the people living in the border regions of the two countries. Additionally, Kyrgyzstan’s Special Representative in Batken announced that the issue of “prohibition of the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in border areas” was also raised during the talks.
On April 16, 2022, President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadr Japarov, announced that an agreement was reached on 664 km of the 972 km border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Japarov stated that the 308 km remains unresolved and the approval process is proceeding slowly. Imamali Rahman, in a meeting with residents of the border town of Isfara on April 17, 2022, said that he favors an early settlement of the problems on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border through negotiations.2
Political Will and Insolvency
70 settlements on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are still controversial. Apart from the efforts of the parties to maintain the cease-fire and prevent further escalation of the incidents, there has been no progress in the negotiations on the demarcation of the borders.
The issue of land has a special sensitivity for Kyrgyzstan. Considering the relationship between the Kyrgyz administration and the people, the existence of the power is put at risk if any concessions are made to the Tajik side. In the previous years, the idea prevailed that the rights of the Kyrgyz side in resolving the territorial problems of Kyrgyzstan in China, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan were violated and that Kyrgyzstan was the party that made concessions. In the eyes of the Kyrgyz society, the image of Kyrgyzstan as a permanent loser leads to serious pressures on the Kyrgyz government. For this reason, the current Kyrgyz administration wants to solve the border problems and has concerns that it will do so. For this reason, it is necessary to be much more cautious in the negotiations with Tajikistan. The fact that Kyrgyzstan’s form of government is different from Tajikistan’s and that it listens to the sensitivities of its people inevitably leads to its hesitation in solving the territorial problem and no limit its political will.
In this context, the government of Tajikistan is more advantageous than its neighbor. The Government of Tajikistan depends on the will of the government rather than the demands of the people of Tajikistan on the resolution of the borders. Although it is easier for the Government of Tajikistan to reach any agreement on the territory than for Kyrgyzstan, it is reluctant to do so. In addition, Tajikistan acts with the principle that “no one will be given an inch of land”. 3
The fact that both states have equal military and economic power seems positive in terms of ensuring the balance of power on the border and in the region and preventing one side from establishing superiority over the other. But this also leads to the postponement of the solution. One of the parties has neither the ability power to exert pressure on the other nor the opportunity to offer opportunities. Both have weak economies. In addition, there is no interdependence between these countries. For example, although there are border problems between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan or between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the decision to be taken by Uzbekistan has the opportunity to seriously affect the process.
But in terms of Tajik-Kyrgyz relations, each country expects the other side to make concessions or prefers that the problem remains frozen. As always, frozen issues are also potential crisis issues. This always runs the risk of turning into a conflict and then turning into a war.
The Tajik-Kyrgyz border issue continues to adversely affect relations between the two countries and continues to damage economic relations. It is known that it would be in the interest of both countries to develop their economic relations due to the fact that both countries have weak economies. Therefore, due to both economic reasons and security risks, Kyrgyzstan is seen as the side that wants to solve the problem without losing “neither territory nor image”.
It can be said that the solution of the problem will also be in the interest of Tajikistan. One of the main reasons for this is the quality of Tajikistan’s security attacks from the South. Threats emanating from Afghanistan cause Tajikistan to concentrate its military capacity mainly on its southern borders. Because of his problems and concerns with the Taliban, it seems less costly for Dushanbe to defend a single front.
The threats emanating from Afghanistan have been an advantage for Tajikistan in its relations with Kyrgyzstan. Due to the Taliban threat, many states, especially Russia, have provided significant military support to Tajikistan. This caused Dushanbe to act boldly towards Bishkek. It has led to a further departure from compromise.
On the grounds of threats from the Taliban, Russia has provided significant military support to Tajikistan. It has both trained and strengthened the Tajikistan Army and dispatched some of the troops stationed at its military base in Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan. Located in Tajikistan, “201. Russian Military Base” is the largest military base abroad. It has nearly 8,000 soldiers. In this context, In this context, Tajikistan is much more integrated with Russia militarily than Kyrgyzstan and receives more support. This leads to the belief that Tajikistan has more advantages over Kyrgyzstan.
The fact that Tajikistan has gained significant external support on the threat emanating from Afghanistan has pushed Kyrgyzstan to seek external support to ensure the security of its southern borders and not to fall behind its neighbor. The factor that prevents the positive development and border wars for Kyrgyzstan is that Tajikistan has concentrated its military weight on its southern borders.
The relative balance of power in the region, in other words, the equal power of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is one of the factors that prevent a comprehensive war. This means that without serious external support, they will not have the means to wage a long war.
The fact that both states are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) led by Russia is a factor that prevents or affects the prevention of war between these two countries. The fact that they are included in a single security system in both states causes them to be seen as an “internal problem”. Betweentimes, both countries ask Russia to give it more support and ask for the arms it needs for its military. But Russian mediation is not desirable. Russia has suggested that it can mediate in resolving border issues. In particular, Tajikistan did not accept this proposal by expressing that there was no need for such a thing.4 It made a similar proposal to the CSTO, of which both states are members, but there was no positive response from the parties.5
Moreover, the CSTO has not previously developed a mechanism to solve similar problems. It is known that after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of border conflicts in some countries, peacekeepers were sent to the border regions under the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) for peacekeeping purposes. But it does not have any authority to solve existing problems. Both the CIS and the CSTO function as an international organization within the framework of the decisions taken by the states.
For this reason, each country tries to defend its own borders or the lands it claims with external support or its own means. Tajikistan enjoys significant support from Russia and, more recently, from Iran. It seems that Kyrgyzstan is seeking a similar way to balance this power of Tajikistan.
Border issues are the most important factor determining Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan relations. Territorial claims, problems in water sharing, smuggling and the activities of criminal organizations at the border are the reasons that trigger these tensions. There have been hundreds of border clashes in the last two years. These conflicts have been extensive and advanced at times. Although it has been stopped as a result of the interventions of the heads of state, the border problems will continue to adversely affect the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan relations without being completely resolved. The risks posed by the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border conflicts also pose a threat to regional security. It can be said that without resolving the Tajik-Kyrgyz border problems, it is unlikely that friendly relations will be established by taking into account the military and economic capacities of both countries. Although Kazakhstan does not have a border with Tajikistan, the bilateral trade relationship reached 1.1 billion dollars in 2021.7 In the last 6 years, trade has increased 37 times to over 1 billion dollars. According to 2022 figures, Tajik-Kyrgyz trade relations have declined to 25 million dollars, seeing the highest level in history. Until the border problems are solved, the development of economic and trade relations remains limited. It even increases the risk of war by causing security problems.
1 “Обострение на киргизско-таджикской границе: погибли 2, ранены 10 граждан Таджикистана”, EurAsia Daily, https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2022/01/28/obostrenie-na-kirgizsko-tadzhikskoy-granice-pogibli-2-raneny-10-grazhdan-tadzhikistana, (Date of Accession: 28.01.2022).
2 Эмомали Рахмон выступил за скорейшее решение приграничных вопросов путем переговоров
3“Сироджиддин Мухриддин: Таджикистан никогда не поступится землями, исконно и по праву принадлежащими ему”, Asya Plus, https://asiaplustj.info/news/tajikistan/politics/20190802/tadzhikistan-ne-otdast-nikomu-ni-pyadi-svoei-zemli-predsedatel-sogdiiskoi-oblasti, (Date of Accession: 17.06.2022).
4 “Россия готова помочь урегулированию ситуации на границе Киргизии и Таджикистана”, Kommersant, https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4800320, (Date of Accession: 17.06.2022).
5 “ОДКБ предложила Киргизии и Таджикистану помощь в решении конфликта на границе”, Kommersant, https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5183582, (Date of Accession: 17.06.2022).
6“Товарооборот между Казахстаном и Таджикистаном достиг $1,1 млрд”, Central Asia Media, https://centralasia.media/news:1787509, (Date of Accession: 17.06.2022).
