The Eurasian geography, which has been historically referred to as ‘the Great Game,’ and has been the scene of imperialist powers’ struggles for influence, is currently undergoing a structural transformation phase that clearly diverges from the 19th-century paradigm of military conquest and political domination. In the period following the Cold War, relations between the landlocked states of Central Asia and Pakistan, the strategic actor in South Asia, have evolved beyond diplomatic protocols into a structural geo-economic necessity. This strategic rapprochement indicates the formation of a new strategic centre of gravity that will integrate the interior of Eurasia into the global trading system.
The essential determinant of this transformation is the determination to overcome geographical constraints through rational economic policies. The fact that states such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are located in one of the world’s largest landlocked regions is considered a structural factor of isolation that limits their economic development processes. In particular, Uzbekistan’s status as one of only two countries in the world surrounded by two land borders increases the cost of accessing global markets and makes foreign trade dependent on the political stability of neighbouring states. It has been observed that regional states, which have long been dependent on the northern routes of the Russian Federation or the eastern corridors of the People’s Republic of China, are shifting their foreign policy axes towards South Asia and the Indian Ocean with the aim of diversifying their foreign trade networks and strengthening their strategic autonomy. In this equation, Pakistan, with its modern logistics infrastructure, the ports of Karachi and, in particular, Gwadar, which is envisaged as a hub within the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), serves as a strategic corridor that will enable Central Asian commodities to be transported to global markets in the most efficient way.
The relevant geo-economic dynamics are taking shape in an environment characterised by a multi-layered power struggle and complex strategic calculations. Regional processes are determined, on the one hand, by the pursuit of classical power balance, while on the other hand, the potential of shared economic interests to balance historical political disagreements comes to the fore. For example, India’s investments in the Chabahar Port in Iran, in line with its strategy of geopolitically encircling Pakistan, reveal the depth of strategic competition in the region. In contrast, high-cost projects such as the Trans-Afghan Railway or the TAPI Natural Gas Pipeline encourage stakeholders to meet on a rational basis for cooperation, avoiding the costs of conflict. This situation represents a hybrid period in which regional states have not entirely put national security concerns into the background, but have instead framed the pursuit of economic survival as a strategic defence mechanism.
The most critical component of the integration process is the change in Afghanistan’s regional position. Previously regarded as a structural obstacle to regional stability and a source of security threats, this country now has the potential to become a land-linked transit hub connecting two major regions. Although the process following the change of government in 2021 has not completely eliminated security risks, it has enabled regional actors to find common ground based on economic pragmatism. The Trans-Afghan Railway Project, planned to run from Tashkent via Kabul to Peshawar, is considered a strategic infrastructure vision that will transform the geopolitical destiny of the region. Upon completion of the project, transit times and logistics costs are expected to decrease significantly. The sustainability of this vision depends more on the will of the regional states to prioritise economic gain over political competition than on technical compatibility.
Energy geopolitics forms the structural basis and economic engine of this strategic relationship. Central Asia’s energy supply surplus and South Asia’s growing energy demand have made projects such as TAPI and CASA-1000 a structural necessity rather than a political choice. Pipelines aiming to transport Turkmen natural gas to the Pakistani and Indian markets via Afghanistan have the potential to create a partnership for stability based on the principle of mutual dependence, as well as providing economic resources to the regions they pass through. The continuity of transit revenues offers a model for establishing security through economic integration by linking the interests of local power centres along the route to the protection of the system.
This rapprochement on a global scale is part of the fragile balance between China, Russia and India. While the People’s Republic of China is consolidating its role as the region’s main financier through the Belt and Road Initiative, Russia is showing a tendency to shift its foreign trade routes southwards and manage this new connectivity in its traditional sphere of influence to its own advantage. India, meanwhile, is seeking to maintain the strategic balance in the region by developing alternative corridors.
Consequently, the future trajectory of Central and South Asia depends on the capacity of economic connectivity to overcome the structural barriers created by geopolitical competition. It is considered that the processes of stability and integration are in a dialectical cycle that feeds into each other. As collective motivation to protect infrastructure investments strengthens, it is likely that states will move towards a higher level of cooperation and crisis management. Ultimately, it is anticipated that a new regional bloc, integrated with the global system, economically empowered and strategically resilient, may emerge at the heart of Eurasia. In this new era, permanent success will be achieved by the actors who most effectively manage connectivity and shared prosperity.
