As a result of coordinated attacks carried out in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan on February 1, 2026, at least 31 civilians and 17 security personnel lost their lives. While the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack, Pakistan accused New Delhi, alleging that the organization is supported by India.[1] India, on the other hand, rejected these accusations and stated that Pakistan intended to divert attention elsewhere.[2] The occurrence of a terrorist attack in Pakistan, while protests are rising within Iran and the threat of an attack by the USA continues, indicates that regional geopolitical balances are being rapidly destabilized.
Attacks by Baloch terror groups along the Pakistan-Iran border have been ongoing for many years. This issue, in particular, leads to major political tensions between Tehran and Islamabad. Significantly, Iran often accuses Pakistan regarding Baloch terror attacks occurring on its own territory, and these attacks frequently result in diplomatic crises between the two countries. Although the activities of Baloch organizations have been largely suppressed on the Iranian front, the same cannot be said for the Pakistani front. Baloch terror groups in Pakistan draw attention by targeting security forces, Chinese employees in and around Gwadar, and infrastructure projects. Pakistan has asserted that Baloch organizations are mostly linked to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), that the TTP receives support from the Afghan Taliban, that some of the militants in the recent attack were of Afghan nationality, and furthermore, that India was behind this attack.[3]
It is widely considered that organizations in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, Pakistan’s Balochistan region, the Fergana Valley in Central Asia, the geography of Afghanistan, and the disputed Kashmir region are often interconnected or can cooperate in line with their common interests. These criticisms are frequently voiced by regional states. Therefore, there is an utmost need for cooperation among regional states against the organizations in question. Due to the symbiotic ties between the aforementioned organizations, the dynamics in South Asian geopolitics are highly volatile and often interconnected. In this regard, developments occurring along the line of Iran, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asian countries, Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and China, have a high potential to create a “domino effect” across the entire geography.
The shifting power dynamics currently observed along the Pakistan-Afghanistan-India axis are rapidly transforming regional stability. The improving relations between the Taliban and India in 2025 constitute one of the most significant geopolitical shifts observed in the region. However, this cooperation,[4] is met with suspicion by Pakistan. Accordingly, the Islamabad administration asserts that the Taliban and India have joined forces against it, directs accusations at both, and states that it will maintain its struggle against them resolutely and simultaneously.[5]
These developments are undoubtedly closely related to Iranian geopolitics as well. India’s increasing interest in Central Asia and its desire to implement transportation projects towards Iran and Afghanistan are decisive factors in New Delhi’s regional policies. In this context, India’s project to reach Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia emerges as a factor that weakens Pakistan’s hand in regional power balances. Consequently, India follows the USA’s “aggressive” stance towards Iran with concern. Indeed, India’s Chabahar Port Project is progressing slowly, and it is frequently stated that New Delhi has withdrawn from this project due to US-led pressures.[6] In general, India supports the modernization of the transportation infrastructure in Iran and desires the emergence of an economically strong and stable Iran.
Due to this geopolitical equation, Iran frequently accuses the Islamabad government of allowing these organizations to take refuge on Pakistani land following terrorist attacks in the Sistan-Baluchestan region. However, certain Baloch terrorist organizations also carry out major attacks within Pakistani territory. The Islamabad administration asserts that these organizations receive support from the TTP, the Afghan Taliban, and other fundamentalist groups in the region.
From a regional perspective, it can be argued that the balance of power between Pakistan and India moves along a very delicate line, and that any disruption of dynamics, particularly in Iran, could shake South Asia through a domino effect. Therefore, it appears to be in the common interest of neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, India, and China to adopt a unified stance against a potential American intervention in Iran. Indeed, an unstable structure in Iran could create major fractures in South Asian geopolitics, primarily for its neighbours Pakistan and Afghanistan. For instance, Turkey, aware of the potential risks in this regard, is attempting to mediate between the USA and Iran. On the other hand, the disputes among Pakistan, India, and China make it difficult for these countries to develop a collective strategy in their approach toward their western neighbour, Iran.
Developments in Iran could influence the dynamics in Pakistan through a subsequent domino effect. Simultaneously, India’s Chabahar Project and its efforts to reach Afghanistan could completely fall through, while China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects passing through Iran (the southern corridor) could face failure. The US threat toward Iran may, in essence, point to an effort to redesign Asian geopolitics. Despite this, regional actors who ought to remain vigilant regarding such dangers instead engage in political infighting, failing to develop a collective strategy against these “regional design efforts” conducted through terrorist organizations.
In conclusion, South Asian power balances are shifting rapidly, driven by the developing relations between the Taliban and India over the past year, the escalating US threat toward Iran, and the surge in terrorist attacks by Baloch organizations in Pakistan. These volatile dynamics necessitate that regional states prioritize effective policies and preventive strategies. Increasing consultations and developing collective strategies among key actors including Pakistan, Iran, India, and China is essential for regional security and stability. Ultimately, the principle that ‘the future of the region should be decided by the regional countries themselves’ stands as the most fundamental foreign policy tenet for the Eurasian geography.
[1] “Pakistan: 145 militants killed after suicide and gun attacks”, DW, https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-145-militants-killed-after-suicide-and-gun-attacks/a-75750607, (Date Accesed: 02.02.2026).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “Pakistan: Belucistan’da 145 ‘Hindistan destekli terörist’ öldürüldü”, Euronews, https://tr.euronews.com/2026/02/02/pakistan-belucistanda-145-hindistan-destekli-terorist-olduruldu, (Date Accessed: 02.02.2026).
[4] “Taliban-Hindistan Yakınlaşması ve Güney Asya’nın Değişen Jeopolitiği”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/anka-analizler/taliban-hindistan-yakinlasmasi-ve-guney-asyanin-degisen-jeopolitigi/
[5] “Asif says Pakistan ready to confront Taliban and India simultaneously”, Amu tv, https://amu.tv/220087/, (Date Accessed: 02.02.2026).
[6] “Did India just withdraw from Iran’s Chabahar Port under US pressure?”, Trt World, https://www.trtworld.com/article/e9605c09d611, (Date Accessed: 02.02.2026).
