Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. These elections are of critical importance for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s political future. The elections also serve as a de facto referendum on Prime Minister Pashinyan’s foreign policy choices since 2018. Coming to power in 2018 thru protests known as the “Velvet Revolution,” Pashinyan initiated a new era in Armenian politics. After 2018, Armenia has, for the first time, become a battleground in the geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West. Between 1991 and 2018, Armenia was under Russia’s strategic control, but with Pashinyan coming to power, it prioritized diversifying its foreign policy. Undoubtedly, this priority has reflected in the relations between Russia and Armenia and has influenced Moscow’s regional policy.
After Azerbaijan’s victory in Karabakh in 2020, significant changes occurred in Armenian politics. Fractious groups, unable to digest the victory in Karabakh and labeled as revanchist, stormed the parliament and demanded Pashinyan’s resignation. The Armenian Army has also supported these revanchist factions. This situation has also brought rumors of a military coup against Pashinyan to the forefront. To prevent a political crisis, Pashinyan decided to call for early elections. The election held on June 20, 2021, resulted in a victory for the Civil Contract Party led by Pashinyan.
Pashinyan claims that he has adopted a balanced strategy in foreign policy. The main objective of this strategy is to increase dependence on Russia and to create new mechanisms thru regional collaborations. In this context, the establishment of a regional cooperation framework with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran is being prioritized. According to Pashinyan, from the mid-1990s onward, Armenia had remained in a “deadlock” for approximately 25 years. This situation stemmed from the dominance of a “specific and fixed strategic approach.”
In the June 7 elections, not only domestic policy but also foreign policy will be voted on. In the elections, the “Strong Armenia” Bloc, formed by the Russia-backed oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, the “Armenia” Bloc led by former Armenian President Robert Kocharian, and the “Prosperous Armenia” party of local oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan will be opposing Pashinyan’s party. The opposition parties are operating with a revanchist agenda. These parties accuse Pashinyan of “betraying Karabakh.” In this context, they accuse Pashinyan of being a “servant of Türkiyeand Azerbaijan.”
It is also on the agenda for the opposition parties to form a coalition against Pashinyan. It is not possible for Karapetyan to assume the Prime Minister’s seat due to his dual citizenship. In this context, former President Kocharian stands out as the joint Prime Minister candidate of the opposition. The Armenian Church also supports the Armenian opposition’s anti-Pashinyan propaganda. The opposition accuses Pashinyan of “turning Armenia into a geopolitical battleground.” According to the opposition, this situation is causing problems in relations with Russia.
Armenia had occupied Azerbaijani territories for a long time. Therefore, it has been excluded from regional projects and thus has not achieved economic prosperity. Pashinyan’s biggest advantage in the elections is his rhetoric that emphasizes regional cooperation and stability. The peace talks with Azerbaijan are guided by concepts such as regional economic, commercial, and transportation cooperation. The 8th European Political Community Summit, held in Yerevan on May 4, 2026, concretely outlined the foreign policy priorities of Armenia under the leadership of Pashinyan. The importance of achieving a permanent arrangement for regional normalization was emphasized at the summit. Pashinyan stated that they are working closely with Azerbaijan to establish peace and that they will strive for lasting peace. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev also participated in the Summit online. In his speech, Aliyev emphasized peace and stated Azerbaijan’s commitment to the peace agenda. At the summit, Türkiye was represented by Vise President Cevdet Yılmaz. A memorandum of understanding regarding the joint restoration of the Ani Bridge between Türkiye and Armenia has been signed. This step is significant in terms of regional normalization.
The visit of United States (U.S.) Vise President JD Vance to Yerevan and the agreements made, Pashinyan’s desire to deepen relations with Brussels, and the EU’s efforts to improve the conditions of competition with Russia in the South Caucasus after the Ukraine War, reveal the rapidly changing regional geopolitics. Pashinyan is trying to effectively use the agreement made in Washington on August 8, 2025, under U.S. mediation, in his election campaign. The agreement hosted by Trump refers to the Trump Road Corridor for International Peace and Prosperity. At the same time, the 8th European Political Community Summit is also considered an effective electoral tool from Pashinyan’s perspective. The EU believes that Pashinyan has chosen the European path with the policies he has pursued and that the elections are a turning point. It is especially possible to say that France sees Armenia as an “area of influence” in the South Caucasus and Caspian basin. The EU announced in December 2025 that it would allocate 12 million euros to Armenia to combat hybrid threats originating from Russia and promised to send a “rapid response group” to the country.
In the elections to be held in Armenia on June 7, the orientation of undecided voters will be decisive. In terms of convincing undecided voters, Pashinyan’s emphasis on the economy, stability, security, and peace is particularly important. In this context, Pashinyan’s slogan “choose us, or there will be war” has the potential to influence the votes of undecided voters. Without the undecided voters being distributed, Pashinyan’s party will achieve a relative majority, not an absolute one, in the parliament. In this context, the rhetoric aimed at undecided voters can determine the direction of the election. There are serious signs that former President Kocharian’s social support is fragile. Karapetyan, on the other hand, is being criticized for his “Russian connection.” However, a very difficult election process awaits Pashinyan.
If Karapetyan, Koçaryan, and Tsarukyan act together, there is a possibility of the “Gyumri scenario” being repeated. After the local elections held in Gyumri in 2025, the opposition parties united to prevent Pashinyan’s party from taking power there. To prevent the “Gyumri scenario” from happening, Pashinyan’s emphasis on peace and stability is of special importance. Armenia does not have the power, capability, capacity, and resources for a new war. The opposition’s rhetoric of revenge will take Armenia further back. Therefore, Pashinyan’s policies emphasizing regional peace and stability are significant in the context of Armenia’s future. Armenia can participate in regional projects and thus emerge from the economic quagmire it has fallen into by adopting constructive and peace-loving neighborhood policies. In this context, discourse aimed at peacebuilding needs to find a serious response in Armenian politics.
