While one year has passed in the Russia-Ukraine War that started on February 24, 2022; The speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Federal Assembly on February 21, 2023 had a wide impact in the international press. Because the speech of the Russian leader contains important clues at the point of evaluating the first year of the war and predicting its future.
Looking at the statements of the Russian leader, it is possible to argue that the war will escalate. Because there is no indication that the mediation processes are working and that they will return to the negotiating table. On the contrary, Putin once again expressed the reasons used by the Moscow administration from the beginning of the war, and while doing this, he reminded once again the trump cards he had during the war. Therefore, in order to understand the Russian leader’s approach to the war in Ukraine, the highlights of the talk should be mentioned. In this context, it can be said that Putin’s speech is shaped over four main headings and each topic contains critical messages.
First of all, Russia’s war in Ukraine is not only with the Kiev administration; This is what he deals with in the context of the struggle with the West. As a matter of fact, Putin used the following statements in his statement:[1]
“We are not at war with the Ukrainian people, Ukraine has become a prisoner of the Western masters. For decades they have razed Ukraine’s industry. In these circumstances, it became easy to spend money on military operations. They have turned people into commodities to be spent. The responsibility for this rests entirely with the Western elite and the Kiev regime.”
The aforementioned statements of the Russian leader were not an attack by Russia from the beginning of the war; It can be read as a continuation of his statements that he is in a defensive position. Because the Kremlin is uncomfortable with the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). As a matter of fact, Russia stated that after Romania and Bulgaria became NATO members in 2007, NATO had reached the last limit to which it could advance in the former Eastern Bloc countries. Accordingly, the Moscow administration showed its determination by intervening in Georgia in 2008 and in Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
According to this approach, Russia believes that the United States of America (2007) has eliminated buffer zones through NATO enlargement. It also bases its intervention in Ukraine on this justification. Therefore, from Moscow’s perspective, the responsible for the war in Ukraine is the USA and its allies.
Moreover, the Moscow administration does not want Western influence in the post-Soviet space within the framework of the “Near Perimeter Doctrine”, also known as the “Primakov Doctrine”. In other words, Russia is in a desire to maintain its hegemony in its immediate surroundings. For this reason, it wants to make the West accept that it is a “great power”. This is one of the causes of war. The Washington administration, on the other hand, is trying to make Russia accept that it is a “medium-sized power” through the war in Ukraine, which has turned into a “war of attrition”. This situation has already been expressed by Putin in the following statements:[2]
“Russia will respond to any challenge it faces, because we are a great country in unity and harmony. We are confident in ourselves and what we can do. The truth is on our side… Russia has the right to be strong.”
As it can be understood, Russia deals with the war in Ukraine within the framework of the registration of its great power status in the international system. Consequently, it can be stated that the war in Ukraine, which witnessed a hybrid war between Russia and the West, including proxies, has a tendency to escalate, expand and deepen.
The second issue is the acceleration of the arms race, which will affect global security. From the beginning of the war, Russia has been giving the message that it can resort to nuclear weapons. In other words, Moscow emphasizes that it will not be the winner of a war that it will lose. As a matter of fact, this emphasis was also included in the aforementioned speech of the Russian leader. Because although Putin did not withdraw from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), he announced that Russia suspended the agreement.[3] In addition, Putin made the following statement, revealing the nuclear arms race and revealing the fragility in the security environment:[4]
“In case the USA decides to conduct a nuclear test, the Russian Ministry of Defense and Rosatom must also be ready to conduct tests with Russian nuclear weapons. Of course, we won’t be the first to do this test, but if the US does a nuclear test, we will too.”
Although Putin’s statements do not mean that Russia will use nuclear weapons, it is evident that the global security environment has been severely damaged by the shelving of the agreements that have made progress on the road to nuclear disarmament.
Moreover, Putin said, “The longer-range systems come to Ukraine from the West, the more we will have to drive the threat away from our borders.”[5] He also drew attention to the security risks that arise in terms of long-range weapons. This shows that the war in Ukraine pushed the actors to use Cold War rhetoric for deterrence. Therefore, new discussions and developments that will pose a threat to the global security environment may be witnessed in the future.
Thirdly, Putin referred to the regions in Ukraine that Russia controlled and declared annexed by holding a referendum in violation of international law. In this context, Putin said:[6]
“We created programs for the development of our new regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporojiya, Kherson). As we did in Crimea, we will create new employment areas, build roads, and establish new ports on the shores of the Azov Sea.”
These statements of Putin reveal that Russia does not want to make Donsetsk, Luhanski Zaporizhia and Kherson the subject of bargaining in possible negotiations. Moreover, while Ukraine has a clear will to regain the lands it lost since 2014, including Crimea; The Russian leader cited Crimea as an example for these new regions. This means that Russia is closed to changing the status quo in Crimea. Undoubtedly, this situation stems from the difference in the expectations of Moscow and Kiev. This difference confirms that the war will be prolonged.
Finally, Putin voiced the argument of “De-Nazification of Ukraine” that the Kremlin has been using since the beginning of the war. Because Russia claims that it is fighting the neo-Nazi groups it claims to exist in Ukraine. That’s why, Putin said, “neo-Nazis in Ukraine do not hide who they see themselves as heirs to, they place swastikas and Nazi names on their equipment.” he said.[7] For this reason, it can be predicted that Russia will continue to use the discourse of fighting neo-Nazi groups.
As a result, while the first year of the Russia-Ukraine War is behind; In his speech at the Federal Assembly, Putin clearly emphasized that the war was the product of the struggle between Russia and the West. Putin’s statements indicate that there may be serious developments, especially nuclear armament, as well as show that Moscow will not accept to give up the regions it annexes, including Crimea, and reveal that the discourse of “Nazification of Ukraine” will continue. All these points indicate that the war will continue even more.
[1] “Federal Meclis Konuşması Yapan Putin: Yeni START’a Katılımımızı Askıya Alıyoruz”, Sputnik News, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20230221/putin-federal-meclis-konusmasini-yapiyor-1067307309.html, (Date of Accession: 21.02.2023).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid.
