Russia’s repeated violations of Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace in September 2025, along with “suspicious” drone activity observed in Danish airspace ahead of the European Council summit, have signaled a new phase in Europe’s war against Russia. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, European powers have claimed that Russia has resorted to irregular warfare methods, actively using hybrid warfare tactics that include disinformation, propaganda, and other tools. It has also been frequently stated that Russia has turned this war into a war of attrition as the conflict has prolonged. It has also been frequently stated in public opinion that this war is essentially between Western powers and Russia and is being fought “by proxy” on Ukrainian soil.
At the beginning of 2025, hopes rose that a peace agreement would be signed between Russia and Ukraine following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump. Trump’s initiatives had raised hopes that the leaders of Ukraine and Russia would come together and accelerate the process leading to a peace agreement. Nevertheless, the failure to reach a concrete agreement in the diplomatic talks between Russia and the US during the process leading to the peace agreement has prolonged the war in Ukraine. It seems quite difficult to resolve critical issues such as the post-war order, Ukraine’s interaction with the West, the presence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the country, and the issue of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It is evident that Western powers and Russia have failed to reach even a close agreement on these issues.
In particular, the UK’s strong continued support for Ukraine, aiming to defeat Russia on the battlefield to achieve better peace terms, has been a factor contributing to the prolongation of the war. The UK, the US, and European powers have not abandoned their goal of defeating Russia on the battlefield to enable Ukraine to sign a better peace agreement. With Russia refusing to engage in peace negotiations, Western powers began intensively discussing NATO deployment in Ukraine starting in the second half of 2025. French President Emmanuel Macron, in particular, has been at the forefront of European actors advocating for security guarantees or the deployment of troops to Ukraine.[i]
NATO’s potential deployment in Ukraine could be seen as equivalent to Russia losing the war in Ukraine. Indeed, Russia’s objective in launching this war was to prevent NATO from expanding further to the east and to establish an order in which Ukraine would distance itself from the West. Therefore, a Ukraine that is more politically and militarily integrated with the West indicates a scenario in which Russia has not achieved what it desired out of the war. From a geopolitical perspective, Russia, which is in a position of being the “loser of the war,” has shifted to a new strategy in the war and has begun to test NATO’s boundaries.
Russia considers any potential security guarantees or military support provided by NATO to Ukraine as a “provocative move” or “escalation of the conflict.” Consequently, Russia has prioritized a “gray war” strategy that could test the defense capabilities and boundaries of NATO countries and NATO as a collective entity. Today, the distinction between war and peace has become blurred. The gray war strategy is used for situations where there is no declaration of war “de jure” but where there is a state of constant war “de facto.” Under this strategy, Russia can engage in actions that test the borders of NATO countries without triggering NATO’s collective defense clause (Article 5). While refraining from moves that could be considered a “casus belli” (cause for war), Russia can engage in provocative actions that challenge the national borders and defense capabilities of NATO countries. This situation may lead to the updating and development of NATO’s defense concept.
Russia’s new strategy may also be aimed at testing transatlantic relations. In fact, the US’s reluctance to provide the necessary support to Europe through NATO is causing Europe to become isolated in the field of security. Ahead of the summit in Denmark, where European leaders will assemble, the European Union (EU), in cooperation with NATO, has accelerated efforts to establish a “drone wall” against Russia following suspicious drone activity observed at various airports in the country.[ii] Additional measures to strengthen NATO’s eastern wing may lead Russia to adopt a different strategy in the future. Russia, which has been testing NATO airspace with UAVs and fighter jets, may soon increase its “gray” interventions in maritime and land areas as well.
Starting from 2014, concerns have continued to grow that the war in Ukraine could spread to Poland, the Baltic states, Moldova, Georgia, or other “near abroad” countries. Western powers have chosen to engage more with Ukraine and Georgia and to strengthen their defenses in Eastern Europe to prevent this from happening. However, these moves have turned into an “escalation” as a result of Russia’s counter-actions. The Ukraine War has long since become a “war of attrition.” This escalation, spreading from “nearby” countries such as Ukraine and Georgia to NATO as a whole, shows us how real and justified fears of a “Third World War” are.
Russia’s new “gray war” strategy tests the defensive reflexes of NATO countries, while the need to keep channels of dialogue open with Moscow is greater than ever. In this sense, Turkey’s responsibility among NATO countries has increased dramatically. Turkey may find itself having to fulfill its role as a balancing and mediating actor between Russia and NATO more than ever and in a more effective manner in the near future.
[i] “Macron says 26 nations ready to provide postwar military backing to Ukraine”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/04/european-leaders-pressure-trump-to-reveal-how-much-support-us-will-give-ukraine, (Accessed: 01.10.2025).
[ii] “AB ‘drone duvarı’ kuruyor: Doğu kanadını koruyacak”, Euro News, https://tr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/26/ab-drone-duvari-kuruyor-dogu-kanadini-koruyacak, (Accessed: 01.10.2025).
