Serbia, who tries to follow “neutral” and “balanced” policy in the Russian-Ukrainian War, has been in a dilemma within the European Union (EU) and Russia in that process. Currently, the Belgrade administration condemned Russia’s invasion to Ukraine while persistently rejecting the sanctions of the EU towards Moscow, and aiming full membership to the Union. Aleksandar Vucic, the President of Serbia, who challenged to protect the relations with Russia, and the EU after the Ukrainian War, struggles to have a balanced foreign policy.
In 2007, Serbia declared itself as a neutral country,[1] and not lean towards to be a member to the military alliances such as North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In addition, Serbia follows a foreign policy that aims to develop good relations with the EU, the United States (US), Russia and China. However, Russian-Ukrainian War caused significant fragility for the foreign policy of the country. Thus, the relationship with the EU and Russia, which is a strategic element for Belgrade, is negatively affected from this process.
After the beginning of the Ukrainian War, Vucic has indicated that the sanctions against Russia is contradicting with the interest of the countries; however, he expressed that they are defending the territorial integrity of Ukraine.[2] Besides, both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian[3] protests in Serbia[4] showed the division within the society. Therefore, Serbia’s determination of not applying sanctions to Russia continues. One of the basic reasons of rejecting this is that the historical connection between the two countries. Thus, Serbia and Russia have religious, cultural and ethnic similarities.
On the other hand, another reason why Serbia does not apply sanctions is dependency on Russia in terms of gas. Because, even though there is a pressure on Vucic, he indicated that they were going to purchase gas from Russia in an acceptable price on May 29, 2022, and they are going to sign a three-year gas agreement with Moscow.[5]
The biggest reaction for the agreement was from the EU. In the explanation of High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell on May 16, 2022, it is expressed that there is a demand for Serbia to join the sanctions against Russia and harmonize their foreign policy with the EU.[6] In such a process, it can be said that Belgrade took a reef for preventing the membership process to the EU and soften the reactions coming from the union. Thus, in his speech in the oath-taking ceremony on May 31, 2022 Vucic said that his country will be on the path of the membership to the EU and referred to join to the sanctions in the following periods.[7]
Right after this explanation, it is indicated that on June 6-7, 2022 the Minister of Foreign Affairs Russia Sergey Lavrov is going to visit Belgrade. In fact, the visit, of which Vucic is pleased, was cancelled due to the decision of Bulgaria, Montenegro, and North Macedonia not allowing the passage of the Lavrov’s plane, and this led Vucic to be freed of reactions may come from the West.[8]
After the UN Generally Assembly Meeting in New York on September 23, 2022, Serbia signed an agreement with Russia on bilateral negotiations on foreign policy was the final straw for the EU. Brussels strongly condemned the “Negotiation Plan” signed by Foreign Ministers of the two countries. On September 26, 2022, the Speaker of the European Commission Peter Stano expressed that Serbia could not strengthen its ties with Russia, as a country negotiating with the EU for membership. Moreover, he expressed that the agreement causes some concerns.[9]
On the other hand, in the news in European media, it is expressed that European Parliament will ask for suspension of the negotiations for membership with Serbia in the meetings in October 2022.[10] Therefore, it can be said that the latest agreement between Serbia and Russia caused pressure on Belgrade from the EU.
As a result, Belgrade does not want to lose the support of Russia in the United Nations Security Council by applying sanctions on Russia. Therefore, it is observed that Serbia is decided to maintain its relations with Russia even there are pressures from the West. However, the Belgrade administration, who does not choose to turn to the West faces a serious dilemma. Because Belgrade does not want to lose both Moscow and Brussels, and in that sense tries to follow a multilateral and multidimensional diplomacy, and forced to make a choice.
[1] “Military Neutrality of the Republic of Serbia”, CFSP, https://cfsp.rs/2019/10/07/military-neutrality-of-the-republic-of-serbia/, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[2] “Sırbistan Cumhurbaşkanı’na Göre, Rusya’ya Yönelik Yaptırım, Ülkesinin İlkelerine Mal Olur”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/sirbistan-cumhurbaskanina-gore-rusyaya-yonelik-yaptirim-ulkesinin-ilkelerine-mal-olur/2566281, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[3] “Sırbistan’ın Başkenti Belgrad’da Rusya’ya Destek Gösterisi”, NTV, https://www.ntv.com.tr/galeri/ukrayna-savasi/sirbistanin-baskenti-belgradda-rusyaya-destek-gosterisi,UmNWv_D43kyzzdDUwZH6pg, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[4] “Sırbistan’ın Belgrad ve Novi Sad Şehirlerinde Ukrayna’ya Destek Gösterisi”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/sirbistanin-belgrad-ve-novi-sad-sehirlerinde-ukraynaya-destek-gosterisi/2525895, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[5] “Sırbistan, Rusya ile 3 Yıllığına Gaz Anlaşması İmzalamaya Hazırlanıyor”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/sirbistan-rusya-ile-3-yilligina-gaz-anlasmasi-imzalamaya-hazirlaniyor/2600701, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[6] “AB, Sırbistan’ın Rusya’ya Yaptırımlara Katılmasını İstedi”, TRT Haber, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/ab-sirbistanin-rusyaya-yaptirimlara-katilmasini-istedi-680625.html, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[7] “Serbian President Commits to Country’s EU Membership Path in Inaugural Speech”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/31/serbian-president-commits-to-country-s-eu-membership-path-in-inaugural-speech, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[8] “Russia’s Lavrov Forced to Cancel Serbia Visit After Neighboring Countries Close Airspace”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-lavrov-cancel-serbia-closed-airspace-bulgaria-north-macedonia-montenegro/, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[9] “Brussels Warns Serbia not to Reinforce Ties with Russia”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/brussels-warns-serbia-not-to-reinforce-ties-with-russia/, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[10] “EU Parliament to Demand Suspension of Serbia’s Accession Talks”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/eu-parliament-to-demand-suspension-of-serbias-accession-talks/, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
