The future geopolitical map is being reshaped by the rise of regional actors beyond traditional power balances. In this context, Central Asia has become a focal point of global interest, not only due to its geostrategic location but also its economic and political integration. Particularly, the relations between the two key countries in the region, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, mark a historical turning point as of October 2025. These two nations are constructing a multidimensional strategic partnership that spans a wide spectrum, from economic collaboration and cultural diplomacy to military cooperation and the establishment of alternative logistics routes.
The developments in October 2025 demonstrate that the Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan axis, which is emerging as a new geopolitical pole in Central Asia, presents a model based on regional stability and multidimensional cooperation. By transforming their traditional ties into modern strategic partnerships, these two countries are taking significant steps in economic integration, security, and cultural diplomacy. Indeed, this reflects not only the strengthening of bilateral relations but also the region’s quest for diversification in its ties with global actors.
The economic ties between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan constitute the most tangible evidence of this dynamism. The trade volume between the two countries, which reached $3 billion with an 18.5 percent increase in the January-August 2025 period, and the ambitious target of $10 billion, highlights the rapid acceleration of economic relations. This momentum is not limited to commercial exchange but also deepens industrial integration through joint projects, such as production at the Uzbekistan GTL facility in the oil and gas sector. Furthermore, infrastructure projects like the “Joint Logistics Strategy,” which includes new transit routes through Afghanistan, and the synchronization of regional energy systems, solidify the strategic depth of this cooperation. Beyond economic integration, the visits of 1.5 million Kazakh citizens to Uzbekistan and the inauguration of new railway tours and cultural routes prove that the economic and strategic cooperation is supported by people-to-people bonds in the region.[i]
This spirit of regional cooperation is also reflected in multilateral security collaboration. The military exercise “Birlik (Unity) 2025,” which commenced in the Katakorgan training ground in Samarkand region with the participation of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan, is an indicator of the desire to strengthen military cooperation and partnership against rising geopolitical tensions and new-generation threats. This drill emphasizes the importance of multilateral cooperation in ensuring regional security by focusing on a comprehensive combat scenario using modern systems such as artillery units, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and armored vehicles.[ii] Such exercises contribute both to regional capacity building and serve as a balancing factor against the pursuit of influence by global powers in the region.
This dynamism is closely linked to the two countries’ pursuit of diversification in their foreign policies. The Russian Federation’s harsh stance towards Central Asian migrant workers over the past year and the resulting tensions have pushed the regional countries to seek alternative partnerships. In this context, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are pursuing a strategic balancing policy in their relations with Russia, aiming to reduce dependence on a single power by strengthening their ties with other global actors. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversations with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan on October 14, 2025, reflect Moscow’s effort to preserve its traditional influence in the region. While issues of economic cooperation, such as trade increases and energy projects, came to the fore in these discussions, Moscow’s desire to deepen these relations within an institutional framework also became apparent.[iii]However, the trade volume with Russia exceeding $45 billion indicates that economic ties with Moscow still carry significant importance.[iv] Nevertheless, it reveals that the two countries are moving towards a more autonomous and multi-vector foreign policy line instead of a policy of complete dependence on Russia.
Another important pillar of this multi-vector policy is the increasing rapprochement with India. The significant increase in air traffic from Central Asia to India, particularly to New Delhi, is a concrete manifestation of this strategic proximity. Liberalized visa policies, such as visa-free travel for Indian citizens adopted by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, have substantially increased trade and tourism potential. The expectation that the weekly number of flights will reach 45 by the end of the year underscores the commercial and touristic potential of this new air route network. This situation demonstrates that the redirection of Central Asian airlines’ operational strategies toward new markets outside Russia reflects the pursuit of diversification in regional foreign policy.[v]
Finally, the expansion of the route network of an Astana-based airline company across Central Asia, initiated by Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, constitutes another important dimension of this integration. Flights commencing on November 7, 2025, from Astana to Samarkand and on November 10, 2025, from Astana to Bishkek, aim to strengthen tourism, trade, education, and cultural ties. The use of Astana Airport as a transfer hub will increase mobility within the region, thereby reinforcing not only economic but also human connections.[vi] These flight networks also support commercial relations with India, contributing to an increase of over 24 percent in India’s exports to Central Asia in the 2025 fiscal year, reaching $927 million. While India’s trade surplus of $652 million in this process points to an asymmetric structure of economic cooperation, factors such as the region’s historical Silk Road legacy and the increasing potential for medical tourism indicate the multidimensional deepening of these relations. Notably, the presence of Indian hospitals in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan proves that this cooperation generates an interaction that extends beyond the economic dimension, strengthening not only commercial ties but also people-to-people relations.
This deepening integration between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will further strengthen the geopolitical position of the region in the coming period. The shared vision of these two leading nations holds the potential to transform Central Asia into a central actor that operates through its own internal dynamics and establishes multilateral relations, moving beyond the influence of Russia and China. The increase in economic cooperation will prioritize their own capacities, especially through infrastructure projects and logistics strategies. They will thus increase their strategic autonomy by ensuring direct access to the European and East Asian markets via alternative routes such as the Middle Corridor. This process will not only bring economic benefits but also enhance the global political leverage of both countries and enable them to play a more proactive role in regional matters.
This strengthening of bilateral relations will also be reflected in regional security. Multilateral military exercises such as “Birlik 2025” are a concrete manifestation of the increased cooperation among Central Asian countries, and this collaboration will develop a more effective and coordinated response capability against common threats such as instability in Afghanistan. The leadership of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in this area can pioneer the construction of a comprehensive security architecture that includes weaker neighbors like Tajikistan. However, this situation may affect the traditional balance of power in the region and, in particular, may lead other regional actors to evaluate their security interests differently. Therefore, the two countries will need to pursue careful diplomacy while preserving existing ties and forging new alliances and collaborations.
In the future, this strategic axis may play a key role in the shift of international investment and foreign policy interest toward Central Asia. Sanctions against Russia and general geopolitical uncertainties are directing global capital toward more stable and reliable alternatives. In this context, the economic reforms and liberalized visa policies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will make them attractive to international investors, tourists, and businesspeople. This dynamic, as seen in the growing trade and tourism relations with India, reinforces the region’s potential to become a new economic and political pole of attraction in the multipolar world order. Consequently, the future of cooperation between these two countries will be a critical juncture that will shape not only their own prosperity but also the future of the entirety of Central Asia.
In conclusion, this strategic rapprochement between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is redefining the geopolitical identity of the entire Central Asian region, extending beyond the relationship between two nation-states. A holistic economic integration, a multi-vector foreign policy, and a collective security understanding constitute the fundamental dynamics of this new axis. This model offers the regional countries the opportunity to establish multilateral collaborations based on mutual interest and shared vision, rather than dependence on a single power. As this process continues, the regional leadership of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will solidify, and Central Asia will evolve from being a passive object of global power competition to an active subject determining its own destiny.
[i] Teymur Atayev, “Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan: The Emerging Axis of Stability in Central Asia”, News.Az, https://news.az/news/kazakhstan-uzbekistan-the-emerging-axis-of-stability-in-central-asia, (Access Date: 15.10.2025).
[ii] “Ucheniya Voyennykh Pyati Stran ‘Yedinstvo’ Nachalis v Uzbekistane”, Gazeta Uz, https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2025/10/15/military, (Access Date: 15.10.2025).
[iii] Farid Akbarov, “Putin Holds Phone Talks with Leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan”, APA, https://en.apa.az/cis-countries/putin-holds-phone-talks-with-leaders-of-uzbekistan-tajikistan-and-kazakhstan-480641, (Access Date: 15.10.2025).
[iv] “Building Beyond the Great Powers: The New Geopolitics of Central Asia”, The Soufan Center, https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-october-15/, (Access Date: 15.10.2025).
[v] “Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan Airlines Boost Connectivity with New Delhi Amid Growing Trade and Visa-Free Travel”, Travel and Tour World, https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/kazakhstan-uzbekistan-and-kyrgyzstan-airlines-boost-connectivity-with-new-delhi-amid-growing-trade-and-visa-free-travel, (Access Date: 15.10.2025).
[vi] “Pryamyye Reysy Zapustili iz Astany v Kyrgyzstan i Uzbekistan”, Kazinform, https://www.inform.kz/ru/pryamie-reysi-zapustili-iz-astani-v-kirgizstan-i-uzbekistan-68ce8b, (Access Date: 15.10.2025).
