In Europe, the issue of migration has transformed from a purely humanitarian problem into a strategic issue directly affecting security, border management, domestic politics, and the European Union’s relations with third countries, since the 2015 refugee crisis. However, developments in the summer of 2026 indicate a new phase in European migration policy. The mass crossings in Ceuta, an autonomous city on the Spanish-Moroccan border, Greece’s tightening of policies against irregular migration, and initiatives within the EU to strengthen return mechanisms, when considered together, reveal that concepts such as “refoulement,” “border security,” and “externalization” have become central to European migration management, alongside “protection” and “integration.”
The most striking example of this transformation is the developments in Ceuta. The influx of approximately 72,000 people from Morocco into Ceuta in late July created an extraordinary border crisis not only for Spain but also for the European Union. Considering that Ceuta’s population is around 85,000, the emergence of a migration movement approaching the city’s population in just a few days demonstrated just how fragile Europe’s external borders can be. The British Parliament Library also confirms that more than 70,000 people will have crossed into Ceuta by the end of July 2026.[i]
Moreover, this mobility is not limited to just a few thousand people crossing the border.[ii] The crisis facing Europe has quickly transformed into a large-scale “return” operation. This also demonstrates a fundamental shift in European migration policy: for Europe, success is now measured not only by preventing border crossings, but also by sending back those who have crossed the border as quickly as possible.
However, what makes the Ceuta case particularly significant is the fact that approximately 1,100 unaccompanied children remain in the region.[iii] While it is possible to return a significant number of adults to Morocco, the legal status and protection obligations of the children make the process far more complex. Spanish authorities are discussing transferring some of these children to mainland Spain, while Morocco has stated its willingness to cooperate on the repatriation of the children.[iv]
It is precisely at this point that the European Commission’s approach on August 18th, supporting the return of migrants in Ceuta, including unaccompanied children, to Morocco under certain legal conditions, becomes important. Because the issue is not only the future of the 1,100 children remaining in Ceuta. A precedent is being set here regarding which policy tool the European Union should prioritize in similar crises in the future. If return mechanisms become more easily implemented politically, the center of gravity of Europe’s migration policy will shift even further towards a security-oriented approach.
The second pillar of this transformation is the increasing externalization of migration policy. Instead of controlling irregular migration solely within their own borders, European countries want migrants to be stopped before reaching European soil, and for third countries to assume greater responsibility in this process. Morocco has become one of the most important partners in this policy, while Libya is also a critical actor in the movement of migrants from North Africa towards Europe. Thus, Europe’s border security is increasingly extending beyond its geographical borders.
This situation may seem rational for Europe in the short term. Stopping migrants before they reach Europe both reduces pressure on border capacities and allows governments to send a message to European public opinion that “we are in control.” However, in the long term, the EU’s increased dependence on Morocco, Libya, and other transit countries could create a significant problem. This is because migration management is no longer just a domestic political issue, but is becoming a tool for foreign policy and diplomatic bargaining.[v]
The example of Greece shows that the same trend is emerging on another border of Europe. Behind Athens’ hardening immigration policy lies a new migration route, particularly from Libya, towards Crete and Gavdos. The arrival of 8,552 refugees and asylum seekers in Crete and Gavdos in the first six months of 2026 demonstrates that this route is becoming increasingly important for Europe.[vi] This figure reveals that Crete is no longer a secondary route for migration to Greece, but has become one of the main entry points.
What is noteworthy here is that migration routes have not disappeared, only shifted. When Europe closes a route with security measures, migration often redirects to another route. The increasing importance of the Turkey-Greece line in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the Libya-Crete line, is an indication of this. Therefore, Europe’s approach based solely on border control may struggle to produce a long-term solution because it does not eliminate the root causes of migration.
The transformation in Europe needs to be understood not only through government policies but also through political discourse. In recent years, while the harsh rhetoric of far-right parties on immigration has become central to European politics, center-right and even center-left parties have begun to adopt more security-oriented policies on immigration due to voter pressure. Therefore, explaining the change in Europe simply as “the rise of the far right” would be incomplete. The truly significant development is that some policy proposals previously advocated by the far right have become part of mainstream politics.
The Ceuta crisis, in this respect, also demonstrated Europe’s political fragility. The extraordinary influx of 72,000 people reignited debates on border security in European public opinion, while the fact that the crisis was quickly managed by sending approximately 70,000 people back to Morocco revealed how central the return policy had become. However, the approximately 1,100 unaccompanied children left behind represent the point where security policies clash with human rights and international law.
Therefore, the fundamental problem facing Europe is not “stopping migration,” but maintaining a balance between migration management and Europe’s liberal values. Border security is a legitimate right of states; however, there are legal limits to return policies, especially when it comes to children and those in need of international protection.[vii] It is no coincidence that children constitute a separate legal category in Ceuta. Europe’s own legal system does not allow for the completely unrestricted application of return policies.
Public perception of migration in European politics is also changing. Migration is no longer discussed solely in terms of humanitarian aid or asylum rights; it is now considered in conjunction with security, housing, public services, border control, and national sovereignty. Consequently, political pressure on governments is increasing. The protests organized by the local population in Ceuta and the strain on the region’s infrastructure due to the movement of thousands of people demonstrate that migration can have serious political consequences at the local level.
The summer of 2026 marks a significant turning point for European migration policy. The fact that 72,000 people crossed into European territory from Ceuta in a short period, approximately 70,000 were sent back, and 1,100 unaccompanied children remain facing legal and humanitarian protection issues, concretely illustrates the transformation taking place in European migration policy. The 8,552 people who reached Crete and Gavdos in Greece during the first half of the year demonstrate that migration routes are continuing to change.
Therefore, defining Europe’s migration policy in 2026 simply as a “shift to the right” is insufficient. A more comprehensive transformation is underway. Europe is moving from a protection-centered model to a control-centered model in migration management; it is not only strengthening its borders but also trying to increase returns and transfer the management of migration to countries outside Europe. Europe’s main test in the coming period will be how to strike a balance between security and human rights. If return and externalization policies are strengthened while legal and humanitarian mechanisms are not strengthened to the same extent, Europe’s “Fortress Europe” approach could become a permanent policy paradigm. However, this would change not only Europe’s external borders but also its own political identity. Therefore, what happened in Ceuta is not a simple border crisis. The fact that 72,000 people headed towards Europe in a few days shows how fragile Europe’s borders are; and the fact that 1,100 unaccompanied children were left behind shows how difficult a test Europe faces in terms of its own values. The migration policy Europe will pursue in the future will also be an indicator of what kind of Europe it wants to be.
[i] Amandine Hess, “EU supports repatriation of unaccompanied migrant minors from Ceuta to Morocco”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/18/eu-supports-repatriation-of-unaccompanied-migrant-minors-from-ceuta-to-morocco, (Date of Access: 17.08.2026).
[ii] Hamza HABHOUB, “In Ceuta, migrants stranded at Europe’s gates await their fate”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260818-ceuta-migrants-stranded-europes-gates-await-their-fate, (Date of Access: 17.08.2026).
[iii] Agnese Pacciardi, “The grim future of European migration policy”, The Loop, https://theloop.ecpr.eu/the-grim-future-of-european-migration-policy/, (Date of Access: 17.08.2026).
[iv] “Europe needs ‘a more scientific approach’ to migration, says former Spanish diplomat”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/18/tv/video/amanpour-berdoy, (Date of Access: 17.08.2026).
[v] Luca Bertuzzi, “Security at the border: How the securitarian agenda came to dominate EU migration policy”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/11/security-at-the-border-how-the-securitarian-agenda-came-to-dominate-eu-migration-policy, (Date of Access: 17.08.2026).
[vi] Malcolm Brabant & Daphne Tolis, “Greece toughens stance on illegal migration with new deportation plan”, pbs, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/greece-toughens-stance-on-illegal-migration-with-new-deportation-plan, (Date of Access: 17.08.2026).
[vii] Ibid.
