The international system is confronting new dynamics in the nature of interstate conflicts and their solutions in the first quarter of the 21st century. In the post-Cold War period, Europe’s security architecture had become relatively predictable thanks to institutional mechanisms centered around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). However, the Russia-Ukraine War has deeply disrupted this balance and made the global impact of regional crises more visible. Parameters such as energy security, economic resilience, military capacity, and diplomatic legitimacy carry existential importance not only for Ukraine and Russia, but also for the EU and transatlantic relations. In this context, the recent 28-point U.S.-Russia peace plan prepared by U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, is seen as a critical turning point at a time when European security is being reshaped and international power balances are being tested.
1. Content of the Peace Plan
The plan brings forward, in concrete terms, strategic demands that Moscow has long advocated. According to Reuters, the main points of the proposed peace plan by Moscow were presented to the public as follows:[i]
· Ukraine’s Withdrawal from Eastern Regions: Ukraine would withdraw from Donbas and certain eastern regions, creating buffer zones in favor of Russia. In addition, Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk would be recognized as de facto under Russian control.
· Reduction of the Armed Forces and NATO: Ukraine is asked to reduce its military forces by a certain amount. This would weaken the country’s defense capabilities and put its security at risk. Ukraine would also guarantee in its constitution that it will not join NATO.
· Renunciation of Strategic Weapon Systems: Ukraine would give up strategic and nuclear weapons systems. This threatens the country’s military independence and shifts the regional balance of power in favor of Russia.
· Russia’s Reintegration into the Global Economy: Russia would be gradually reintegrated into the global economy through the lifting of sanctions and economic cooperation. Russia would also be invited back into the G8.
· Reconstruction of Ukraine and Financial Support: Ukraine would receive a comprehensive reconstruction package. However, parts of the funding would remain under U.S. and European control.
The implementation of these concessions would represent not only a military and political setback for Ukraine, but also a major challenge in terms of national identity and sovereignty. On the other hand, the active role of the United States in drafting the plan, as well as the involvement of diplomatic figures close to Trump, shows that Washington is not only acting as a mediator but also as a strategic actor reshaping regional power dynamics.[ii] The U.S. approach is directly linked to its desire to gain diplomatic prestige and strengthen its image of global leadership. Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Russia could carry significant risks not only for Ukraine but also for Europe.
2. Positions of the Parties
2.1. Ukraine and Europe’s Approaches
For the Kyiv administration, this plan contains both opportunities and serious risks. While the plan offers the possibility of a ceasefire and a reduction in the economic and humanitarian costs of the war, the significant territorial and military concessions it demands threaten Ukraine’s strategic independence and long-term security. Moreover, domestic political instability, corruption investigations, and ministerial resignations have weakened the government’s diplomatic bargaining power and reduced the likelihood that the public would accept such a plan. This shows that Kyiv’s approach to the peace proposal must take into account not only strategic factors but also issues of political and societal legitimacy.
Europe is facing a serious strategic test as Ukraine’s future once again becomes the focus of geopolitical bargaining. Since Russia launched its full-scale illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has repeatedly stated that it wants to play a central role in peace negotiations. This position has led to a strong reaction from Brussels against a peace plan drafted behind closed doors by the United States and Russia. European leaders have firmly rejected the plan, and the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, emphasized that any peace plan must include both Ukrainians and Europeans at the negotiating table. Kallas stated, “It is very clear that any plan can only succeed if it has the approval of Ukraine and the Europeans,” stressing that for any solution to gain Europe’s support, Ukraine’s consent is essential.[iii] This view was also supported by Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel, who stated, “Without Ukraine’s support, you cannot gain the support of Europeans.”[iv]
The Thanksgiving ultimatum from the United States and Trump’s attempt to use the peace process to his own advantage, along with the exclusion of European leaders from the negotiations, create serious risks for Kyiv. However, the urgent consultations show that the plan might be revised in a way that protects Ukraine’s sovereignty, and the solidarity of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom plays a decisive role in shaping the negotiation process.[v]
As of 23 November, Europe prepared a counter-proposal. This counter plan, drafted by the E3 powers, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, is based on the U.S. plan but reviews each article individually and includes suggested changes and revisions. According to the text published by Reuters, some of the key points are as follows:[vi]
· Ukraine’s Sovereignty and Security: Ukraine’s sovereignty will be reaffirmed; the country will receive strong security guarantees, and the size of its armed forces will be limited during the peace period.
· NATO and International Arrangements: Ukraine’s NATO membership will depend on the consensus of alliance members. NATO will not station permanent troops in Ukraine during the peace period, but fighter jets will be deployed in Poland.
· Russia’s Reintegration into the Global Economy: Russia will be gradually reintegrated into the global economy through the phased lifting of sanctions and long-term economic cooperation with the United States. Russia will also be invited to rejoin the G8.
· Territorial and Conflict Arrangements: Ukraine will not attempt to regain occupied territories by military means; future territorial arrangements will be determined through mutual agreement and will not be changed by force. Additionally, Ukraine will receive a comprehensive global reconstruction package, war-affected regions will be restored, and the World Bank will provide special financing.
· Legal and Monitored Implementation of Peace: The agreement will be legally binding and implemented by the Peace Board chaired by President Trump, and an immediate ceasefire will take effect with the consent of all parties.
Given that Moscow is unlikely to accept a plan that resembles surrender and appears unconcerned about continuing the war, it is essential for Europe to adopt a firm position to secure its own safety through Ukraine’s security. The emergence of the U.S.–Russia plan has revived concerns that Europe—despite its substantial support for Ukraine—risks being sidelined in the peace process. European officials have expressed frustration at being excluded from key discussions, and some have questioned why Europe was not involved in drafting this proposal.
On the other hand, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to reassure European allies, stating that peace would “require difficult but necessary concessions from both sides,” and emphasized the importance of an inclusive approach that takes all parties’ views into account.[vii] However, the perception that the plan leans more favorably toward Russia highlights how critical Europe’s participation in the process is, as well as the importance of safeguarding Europe’s security interests. According to European leaders, excluding Ukraine and the EU from the process could undermine the legitimacy of any proposed peace agreement and threaten Europe’s collective security interests.
2.2. Approaches of Russia and the United States
For Russia, the proposed peace plan has the potential to strengthen its long-term strategic goals. Certain articles of the plan, particularly Ukraine’s withdrawal from its eastern regions and the limitation of its military capacity, would allow Moscow to solidify its influence in the region. Additionally, provisions such as Russia’s reintegration into the global economy and its invitation back to the G8 offer prospects for easing Western economic and diplomatic pressure, as well as gradually lifting sanctions to reduce economic burdens. However, the feasibility of the plan for Russia depends on the extent to which the United States and Europe are willing to provide security guarantees, as well as whether Ukraine can reach a compromise in the negotiation process. If these conditions are not met, Russia’s ability to achieve its objectives will remain limited.
For the United States, the plan offers an opportunity to establish a security architecture coordinated with Europe and NATO, and to foster stability in the region. U.S. guarantees and potential military response mechanisms aim both to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty and to create a deterrent posture against Russia. The economic and reconstruction packages allow the U.S. to strengthen long-term cooperation with Ukraine in energy, technology, and infrastructure, while also reinforcing solidarity among Western allies. However, the United States’ capacity to ensure the implementation of the plan, alongside Russia’s likelihood of refusing to compromise on its core objectives, are critical factors that directly influence the plan’s chances of success.
Russian President Vladimir Putin broke his silence one week after the peace plan was made public and announced that Moscow was ready for “serious” discussions on the U.S.-backed Ukrainian peace proposal.[viii] Putin stated that the plan agreed upon by the United States and Ukraine could serve as the basis for an agreement to end the nearly four-year conflict and noted that the U.S. had taken Moscow’s position into consideration. Russia also emphasized that it would not make concessions on key issues, indicating that progress in the negotiations would be necessary.
In conclusion, the U.S.-Russia peace plan represents a critical turning point that will shape not only Ukraine’s future but also the entire security landscape of Europe. Ukraine’s struggle to preserve its strategic independence and national sovereignty is being tested by the concessions outlined in the proposed plan. Territorial losses, the reduction of military strength, and the abandonment of strategic weapons could weaken the country’s defense capacity and have the potential to shift the regional balance of power in Russia’s favor.
On the other hand, the fact that the plan was developed primarily in line with U.S. and Russian interests, with Europe and Ukraine being only minimally involved, or not involved at all, carries the risk of violating international law and established security norms. Excluding the European Union and Ukraine could weaken the legitimacy of the plan and endanger Europe’s security interests.
Therefore, for peace to be lasting and sustainable, it is crucial that the international community, especially the EU, participate actively in the process and that all parties are represented in a balanced manner. This situation clearly demonstrates how global diplomacy and power dynamics are shaped and how complex and decisive power struggles in international relations can be.
[i]Sasha Vakulina, “Explainer: What is new in the US-Russia plan for Ukraine?”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2025/11/20/explainer-what-is-new-in-the-us-russia-plan-for-ukraine, (Accessed: 20.11.2025).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] “EU says any peace plan must consult Ukraine, Europe, doubts Russian intent”, Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/20/eu-says-any-peace-plan-must-consult-ukraine-europe-doubts-russian-intent, (Accessed: 20.11.2025).
[iv] Jorge Liboreiro & Mared Gwyn Jones, “EU countries demand seat at the table over US-Russia plan to end war in Ukraine”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/11/20/eu-countries-demand-seat-at-the-table-over-us-russia-plan-to-end-war-in-ukraine, (Accessed: 20.11.2025).
[v] Katherine Butler, “Can Europe prevent an unjust ‘peace’ in Ukraine – and what is at stake if it fails?”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/26/this-is-europe-ukraine-peace-plan-russia-us (Accessed: 27.11.2025).
[vi] “Full text of European counter-proposal to US Ukraine peace plan”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/full-text-european-counter-proposal-us-ukraine-peace-plan-2025-11-23/ (Accessed: 24.11.2025).
[vii]Ibid.
[viii] Holly Ellyatt, “Putin breaks his silence on Ukraine peace plan, says Moscow ready for ‘serious’ talks”, BBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/27/putin-moscow-ready-for-serious-talks-on-ukraine-peace-plan.html, (Accessed: 27.11.2025).
