The Red Sea is an international trade route that connects the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and it is very important for economic stability. After the “Al-Aqsa Flood Operation” in October 2023 and the beginning of the Hamas–Israel War, the Houthis started attacking Israel-linked commercial ships as a response to Israel’s attacks on Gaza. After these attacks, major shipping companies such as Evergreen, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, which use this route for Asia–Europe sea trade, directed their vessels to the Cape of Good Hope route. After this route change, by mid-2024, the tonnage capacity of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden decreased by 76%, and the tonnage of ships passing through the Suez Canal decreased by 70%, while the total tonnage of ships using the Cape of Good Hope increased by 89%.[i]
Besides container transportation, the amount of crude oil carried through the region also decreased. As of December 2023, an average of 8.8 million barrels of oil per day was transported through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which equaled 8.7% of the global daily crude oil demand of 101.7 million barrels,[ii] after the Houthi attacks, this amount fell to 4 million barrels per day by August 2024, which equals about 3.9% of global demand.[iii] This rate means a drop of more than 50% in the amount of crude oil transported through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the first eight months of 2024.
After the Gaza Peace Plan was signed and entered into force at the beginning of October 2025, a Houthi military official announced in a letter written to Hamas’s Qassam Brigades that the attacks had stopped [iv] and in November, the Red Sea entered a relatively calm period, but the cautious position of the shipping companies that used the region before the attacks continued.
Among these statements, a Maersk Company official said that “steps will be taken to restart the Red Sea transit through the Suez Canal as soon as conditions allow, but no clear date has been set yet.” The Suez Canal Authority stated that the company’s container ships would begin partial transit through the canal at the beginning of December, and then a full return would follow.[v] Another major sea transportation company, Hapag-Lloyd, stated that it does not expect its vessels to return to the Suez route very soon and emphasized that the company is monitoring the situation.
Experts on the issue also said that caution is needed after the declared pause. They note that although the risk of Houthi attacks on maritime transport in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the wider region has decreased significantly, the Houthis still keep their ability to carry out attacks on ships passing through the area with missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and unmanned sea vehicles.[vi]
As remembered, in March 2025 the United States launched a major air and sea attack against Houthi targets in Yemen with the operation code-named “Rough Rider”, which became the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East during President Donald Trump’s second term. In this operation, the radar and air defense systems, as well as the ballistic missile and drone launch sites that the Houthis used to attack commercial ships and naval elements in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, were targeted. The United Kingdom also supported the attack on 30 April 2025. However, even after these strikes, Houthi attacks on ships passing through the region continued.[vii]
The attacks carried out by the Houthis in the Red Sea have had geopolitical effects such as increasing the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and causing the formation of international coalitions like the U.S.-led “Operation Prosperity Guardian” and the EU-led “Operation Aspides” to prevent attacks on trade and some naval ships. In addition, the security gap created in the region led to a rise in Somali piracy activities, which had dropped to zero between 2016 and 2022,[viii] delayed humanitarian aid to Yemen and Sudan, and economically affected the regional countries, especially Egypt, by increasing costs, insurance, and freight charges due to longer routes. The Suez Canal revenues, which contributed about 9 billion dollars annually in 2022, decreased by 22% after the attacks.[ix]
As a result, although the ceasefire in Gaza is a positive development for regional stability, it does not alone guarantee that global shipping through the Red Sea will return. It is considered that shipping companies will continue to approach the Red Sea route cautiously until the threat of Houthi attacks permanently decreases, and this will continue to put pressure on the global supply chain.
[i] Review of Maritime Transport 2024, UN Trade & Development (UNCTAD), https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024?utm_source, (Date of Access: 29.11.2025).
[ii] US Energy Information Administration, Red Sea Chokepoints are Critical for International Oil and Natural Gas Flows, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61025, (Date of Access: 29.11.2025).
[iii] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Fewer tankers transit the Red Sea in 2024, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63446&utm_source, (Date of Access: 25.11.2025).
[iv] Gambrell, J. (2025), Yemen’s Houthi rebels signal that they’ve stopped attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, AP, https://apnews.com/article/mideast-wars-yemen-houthis-red-sea-ee7be23641e9e3fd227d2c1677e03472, (Date of Access: 25.11.2025).
[v] “Maersk to return to Red Sea route as soon as conditions allow, CEO says”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/maersk-return-red-sea-route-soon-conditions-allow-ceo-says-2025-11-25/?utm_source, (Date of Access: 25.11.2025).
[vi] Schuler, M., (2025), Houthis Declare Suspension of Red Sea Attacks, But Maritime Threat Remains, gCaptain, https://gcaptain.com/houthis-declare-suspension-of-red-sea-attacks-but-maritime-threat-remains/, (Date of Access: 25.11.2025).
[vii] Oral, F., (2025). Savaş ve Çatışmaların Çevreye Olumsuz Etkileri, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/anka-analizler/savas-ve-catismalarin-cevreye-olumsuz-etkileri/, (Date of Access: 25.11.2025).
[viii] “Somali piracy spikes after months of calm”, Safety4sea, https://safety4sea.com/somali-piracy-spikes-after-months-of-calm/, (Date of Access: 25.11.2025).
[ix] Sainz, S., & Rodríguez, Á., The Strategic Disruption by Houthi Forces in the Maritime Corridor of the Red Sea, Global Economic, Humanitarian and Security Implications, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5MO5NI, (Date of Access: 25.11.2025).
