The increasing China-United States of America (USA) rivalry in recent years draws attention as the most significant geopolitical conflict that will force international relations to a new transformation. China’s demand for more power and rights, which began with the Xi Jinping administration, caused the USA to turn to the region and adopt new strategies. Diplomatic and economic policy towards Indo-Pacific in the Barack Obama term has evolved into security format in Donald Trump period. Especially, Trump’s harsh discourse towards China and security-based view triggered international relations to focus on that geography and the “Chinese threat” phrase was frequently expressed. Joe Biden after Trump also followed the path of his predecessors and combined the policies of both Presidents and created the strategy in the basis of “economy-diplomacy-security”.
As it is known, the containment of China and the steps taken by the USA towards the region have been identified with the concept of “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” for a while. As a matter of fact, the Indo-Pacific Strategy document, which was announced for the first time by the Trump administration, was evaluated as a report that reflects the perspective of the USA on Beijing together with its allies. For this reason, the Indo-Pacific Strategy to be announced by the Biden administration has been waited for a long time in terms of showing the steps to be taken for the future. In this context, the Biden administration announced the expected Indo-Pacific report on February 11, 2022.[1]
In the report titled Indo-Pacific Strategy of the USA, the 5 main objectives of the Washington administration regarding the region are listed as follows:
- Advance a free and open Indo-Pacific
- Build connections within and beyond the regions
- Drive Indo-Pacific Prosperity
- Bolster Indo-Pacific Security
- Build Regional Resilience to 21st Century Transnational Threats
To implement this strategy, USA will pursue ten core lines of effort in the next 12 to 24 months:
- Drive new resources to the Indo-Pacific
- Lead an Indo-Pacific economic framework
- Reinforce Deterrence
- Strengthen an empowered and unified the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
- Support India’s continued rise and regional leadership
- Deliver on the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)
- Expand U.S.-Japan-South Korea cooperation
- Partner to build resilience in the Pacific Islands
- Support good governance and accountability
- Support open, resilient, secure and trustworthy technologies
- While the aforementioned report announced by the Biden administration once again confirms that the USA is a Pacific country; his approach to the region was also expressed in the following words:[2]
“Under President Biden, the United States is determined to strengthen our long-term position in and commitment to the Indo-Pacific. We will focus on every corner of the region, from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, to South Asia and Oceania, including the Pacific Islands.”
Contrary to the two reports announced during the Trump era; it can be said that the new report has been written more clearly and target oriented. It is also a fact that the report emphasizes the policies announced by the US decision makers in the past. However, there are also lines in the report that are open to interpretation and give clues about the U.S.’s future plans.
First of all, contrary to previous reports, the emphasis on South Korea creates the impression that the USA will launch an initiative to solve the problems between its two notable allies, Japan and South Korea. In recent months, North Korea’s missile tests have enabled the US-Japan-South Korea mechanism to work more actively. With this rapprochement, the resolution of the conflicts between Japan and South Korea under the leadership of the USA will allow both countries to focus more on China and will increase the strength of the strategy of containment of China economically.
Another issue highlighted in the report and opened under a separate heading is India. While India is defined in the report as an important actor in the Indo-Pacific policies of the USA; positioned as a regional power. However, the expression in question, which was used at a time when Indian nationalism was dominant, created dissent in New Delhi. The reasons such as not being included in the AUKUS process, the discomfort felt by the emphasis on Ukraine in the last QUAD meeting, European countries, especially England, which the USA tried to attract to the region, and naturally the Anglo-Saxon point of view can be interpreted as developments that will make India’s stance questioned. For this reason, New Delhi will demand its role evaluated again as a global scale rather than regional in the coming period.
Another remarkable point in the report is the emphasis on ASEAN. ASEAN, which is formed by the countries located in the center of the Indo-Pacific region, has come to the fore with the “Centrality” strategy it has followed in recent years. However, it is known that in recent months, China has been trying to penetrate ASEAN’s centrality policy through Myanmar by using Cambodia. In this conjuncture, the U.S.’s emphasis on the centrality policy may bring ASEAN closer to Washington.
The most critical statement of the report on security is “integrated deterrence”. As it is known, the USA has been launching initiatives involving countries from within and outside the region in recent years. While U.S has created an Anglo-Saxon-based security agreement with AUKUS, it has formed a more comprehensive organization that includes the spirit of the region with QUAD. In addition, it makes bilateral security agreements with the countries of the region and organizes many military exercises. If the concept of integrated deterrence is evaluated in this context, it can be predicted that the cooperation between the organizations led by the USA will enhance, new countries will join the QUAD and security agreements such as AUKUS will be expanded. With this approach, it will be feasible to build a robust security architecture by gathering the region’s countries against China. Washington will provide defensive flexibility and deterrence against the Chinese Army in the Indo-Pacific area by boosting cooperation among the nations and organizations that have joined its alliance.
The international system is evolving into a new geopolitical fluctuation and a multipolar structure. Indeed, the rhetoric of “collective efforts,” which is repeatedly highlighted in the report, indicates that the United States admits with its own words that the world is no longer a unipolar one. There is an interesting point at this point. Because, although the policies, rhetoric and management style implemented by Biden, who came to the administration after a controversial election, are completely opposite to Trump’s, the steps he took in the context of the containment policy against China and the Indo-Pacific strategy are a continuation of Trump and even the Obama administration. For this reason, it would not be wrong to see the USA’s movement to the region as the macro plan of its deep-state. The USA has chosen the Indo-Pacific region as its top priority area now and in the future. Therefore, it can be predicted that its efforts and influence in the rest of the world will diminish.
[1] “Indo-Pacific Strategy of The United States”, The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf, 2022.
[2] “Indo-Pacific Strategy…”, a.g.r., s. 5.
