Analysis

The Militarization Race of AI and the Cold War

The military use of AI is transforming warfare doctrines and intensifying strategic competition among major powers.
China-based AI platforms such as DeepSeek challenge U.S. technological leadership, raising new security concerns.
The AI and military technology race holds the potential to reshape the Second Cold War into an AI Cold War.

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The militarization of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has fundamentally transformed military organizations, combat strategies, and operational processes by altering the nature of warfare. Autonomous systems have accelerated decision-making processes, providing new advantages on the battlefield and enhancing target recognition, threat prediction, and precision strike capabilities through technologies such as machine learning, real-time data analysis, and artificial neural networks.

AI, which plays a critical role in areas such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomous systems, missile defense, and cyber warfare operations, has reshaped military doctrines through swarm technology, autonomous coordination, and quantum computing. Simulations based on Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) have digitized military training by eliminating physical risks in combat preparation. Major powers such as China, India, Russia, and the United States (USA) have sought to achieve strategic superiority on the battlefield through investments in AI-supported military technologies, transforming technological competition into a security strategy. AI is no longer merely a tool of warfare but has become a fundamental component of military doctrines and deterrence policies.[1]

Over the past decade, AI has influenced every aspect of human life, finding widespread applications from facial recognition software and autonomous vehicles to search engines and translation systems. However, this technological advancement has taken on a more complex dimension with AI’s integration into the battlefield, leading to its weaponization, which has created a dynamic similar to the nuclear arms race during the Cold War. As nuclear deterrence is gradually being replaced by autonomous weapon systems, major powers such as China, the USA, and Russia have placed AI-based military technologies at the core of their national security strategies. The advantages AI provides in intelligence, surveillance, and cybersecurity have altered military doctrines, disrupted global balances, and made diplomatic negotiations imperative. However, the United Nations (UN) and international legal mechanisms have struggled to keep pace with AI’s rapid rise in modern warfare, leaving the ethical and legal framework for autonomous weapons ambiguous. This situation has heightened the risk of AI-driven arms races destabilizing international security, necessitating diplomacy and multilateral agreements to play a crucial role in balancing this process.[2]

The rise of China-based DeepSeek in the AI sector, made accessible in January 2025, has shaken the dominance of the U.S. in the technology sector and heightened national security concerns. The U.S. Navy banned DeepSeek applications due to security and ethical reasons, while the White House began evaluating their impact on national security.[3] As one of Apple’s most downloaded free applications, DeepSeek has emerged as a serious competitor to U.S.-based AI firms like OpenAI, sparking allegations that it may have benefited from Western technologies through knowledge distillation. The 17% decline in Nvidia shares and a $600 billion market loss have dealt a significant blow to the U.S. economic power in the AI sector.[4]

As the U.S. government plans export controls and regulatory measures to curb China’s AI advancements, concerns that DeepSeek might transfer user data to the Chinese government have ignited debates on data security. The broad data access authority granted to companies under Chinese law has led to evaluations that the application could pose a national security risk. Additionally, DeepSeek’s censorship policies have drawn attention, with findings indicating that access to information on sensitive topics, such as the Tiananmen Square incident, has been restricted. These developments demonstrate that China’s progress in AI has become a direct factor impacting U.S. global leadership and strategic interests.

Data from the U.S. National University’s report, titled “131 AI Statistics and Trends for 2025”, reveal that AI is rapidly expanding globally and exerting a significant influence across a wide range of applications, from business to individual use. It has been reported that AI is present in 77% of devices currently in use, that 90% of organizations adopt AI for competitive advantage, and that this technology has become an integral part of the global economy. AI is expected to contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, with its impact extending beyond economic effects to transforming the labor market. It is projected that by 2025, 85 million jobs will be lost, but 97 million new jobs will be created, resulting in a net employment increase of 12 million. Furthermore, 63% of organizations plan to adopt AI within the next three years, while the market is reported to be growing at an annual rate of at least 120%. By 2024, the global AI market is expected to grow by 33%, while only one-third of consumers believe they use AI platforms, despite the actual usage rate reaching 77%. These data indicate that AI is no longer merely a technological advancement but a force that is fundamentally reshaping economic and social structures.[5]

AI’s impact on global security strategies has deepened, particularly altering strategic balances in South Asia, where nuclear powers are present. Within the historical rivalry between India and Pakistan, the militarization of AI presents both opportunities and risks for regional security. Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), advanced surveillance technologies, and AI-supported decision-making mechanisms have become fundamental components of military doctrines. While these technologies offer strategic advantages, they also introduce risks of errors, miscalculations, and escalation. The integration of AI into conventional and nuclear systems has increased the risk of sudden and uncontrolled crises, particularly in high-tension regions like South Asia, rendering the future of security policies increasingly uncertain.[6]

Marc Andreessen has emerged as a staunch anti-China advocate regarding the militarization of AI, arguing that an arms race against Beijing is inevitable. According to him, the winner of this race will achieve global dominance, and therefore, concerns related to AI—such as surveillance, job losses, or energy consumption—should be secondary to the overarching goal of defeating China at any cost. An analysis published by The Washington Post highlighted that after meeting with Donald Trump, Andreessen began perceiving the struggle against China as an opportunity for the U.S. technology sector.[7] While emphasizing the U.S.’s strength in software development, the report also expressed serious concerns regarding China’s growing dominance in UAV technology and hardware manufacturing. China’s rapid rise in the automotive sector was exemplified by Xiaomi, drawing attention to the necessity of a strong domestic production infrastructure in the U.S. to counter potential “nightmare scenarios” that could pose security risks. Additionally, it was stated that in order to maintain its competitive edge, the U.S. must address supply chain vulnerabilities and refocus on robotics and physical AI.[8]

Furthermore, the critical role that Vice President James David Vance may undertake has not been overlooked. Rising with the support of Peter Thiel, Vance worked for five years at one of Thiel’s companies and won the 2022 Ohio Senate election with $15 million in funding provided by Thiel. This situation has intensified the concentration of power within the government, placing the responsibility of counteracting it on independent media and public officials within the executive branch. Ensuring that the public has a say in how state tax resources are allocated has been of vital importance; otherwise, budget policies have been shaped by powerful lobbying groups. In this process, not only have trillions of dollars in public funds been at stake, but the well-being of the population has also been jeopardized, as the technocratic-militarist circles’ policies of direct confrontation with China have led to cuts in social spending and escalated tensions between two nuclear powers.[9]

The increasing concentration of power has made it imperative for independent media and public officials to resist this uncontrolled process. The lack of public influence over how taxes are spent has resulted in budgetary priorities being dictated by powerful lobbying groups, neglecting societal needs. The policies of technocratic-militarist circles advocating direct confrontation with China have caused reductions in social programs and an escalation of nuclear tensions. The goals of Elon Musk and technology elites have extended beyond financial gain to include colonizing space, sidelining China, and establishing global dominance. Considering that U.S. President Donald Trump may support this vision, the establishment of a counterbalance to this power concentration has become inevitable. Otherwise, democratic oversight will weaken, and global power dynamics will fall under the control of technology elites.

The militarization of AI has introduced new risks to international security due to misperceptions, system failures, and the unpredictability of autonomous decision-making mechanisms. Algorithmic errors, inaccurate threat assessments, and cyberattacks have triggered unexpected tensions, weakening regional stability. Additionally, legal uncertainties regarding accountability in accidental military incidents have become a significant topic of debate. In this context, the impact of AI-supported systems on nuclear deterrence and global security balances has emerged as a critical issue that requires careful consideration.

With the rapid advancement of AI, strategic competition between the U.S., China, and Russia is expected to intensify further. The rise of China-based AI platforms such as DeepSeek threatens U.S. technological leadership, prompting expectations that the Washington administration will implement new sanctions on national security grounds. It is anticipated that China will increase investments in developing an independent AI ecosystem to circumvent these restrictions, while Russia is expected to focus on utilizing AI primarily in military and cyber warfare domains. This competition is predicted to reshape global supply chains, while the EU will likely seek to maintain balance through data security and ethical regulations. However, the technological bloc formation between the West and China is expected to deepen further.

As 2025 begins, speculations have arisen regarding the possibility of World War III following the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine War, which began in 2022. However, this situation essentially indicates the emergence of a new Cold War period, which could be termed the “Second Cold War.” In this context, the race in AI and military technology is anticipated to trigger what can be referred to as an “AI Cold War.” U.S. bans on China-based AI companies are expected to prompt China to take countermeasures, potentially leading to the fragmentation of the global AI ecosystem. The proliferation of autonomous weapon systems and cyber warfare capabilities is assessed as a factor that will complicate crisis management and destabilize international security balances. AI is increasingly being seen not just as a technological advancement but as a strategic force redefining global security and the geopolitical landscape.


[1] Lal Khan Niazi, Militarization of Artificial Intelligence and Implications for the Global Security – A Strategic Theory Perspective, Social Sciences Spectrum 4, no. 1 (2025): 24-25. https://doi.org/10.71085/sss.04.01.19824-25

[2] Kristian Humble, “War, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of Conflict”, SFS – Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2024/07/12/war-artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-conflict, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

[3] João da Silva ve Graham Fraser, “OpenAI Says Chinese Rivals Using İts Work for Their AI Apps”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vm1m8wpr9o, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

[4] Emmet Lyons, “DeepSeek AI Raises National Security Concerns, U.S. Officials Say”, CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/deepseek-ai-raises-national-security-concerns-trump, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

[5] “131 AI Statistics and Trends for 2025”, National University, https://www.nu.edu/blog/ai-statistics-trends, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

[6] Zohaib Altaf ve Nimrah Javed, “The Militarization of AI in South Asia”, South Asian Voices, https://southasianvoices.org/sec-c-pk-r-militarization-of-ai-01-16-2024, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

[7] Cat Zakrzewski ve Jacqueline Alemany, “Elon Musk isn’t the Only Tech Leader Helping Shape the Trump Administration”, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/13/andreessen-tech-industry-trump-administration-doge, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

[8] Ben Horowitz ve Marc Andreessen, “AI, Robotics & the New Global Arms Race”, Andreessen Horowitz, https://a16z.com/podcast/ai-robotics-the-new-global-arms-race, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

[9] Daniel Klaidman, “The Billionaire Who Fueled JD Vance’s Rapid Rise to the Trump VP Spot — Analysis”, CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-trump-vp-peter-thiel-billionaire, (Access Date: 29.01.2025).

Ergün MAMEDOV
Ergün MAMEDOV
Ergün Mamedov completed his education in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Kütahya Dumlupınar University, from 2016 to 2020. In the same year, he was admitted to the thesis-based Master’s program in International Relations at the Institute of Postgraduate Education of Kütahya Dumlupınar University and successfully defended his thesis, graduating in 2022. He is currently continuing his education as a doctoral student in the Department of International Relations at the Institute of Postgraduate Education of Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, where he began his studies in 2022. A citizen of Georgia, Ergün Mamedov is proficient in Georgian, intermediate in English, and has a basic knowledge of Russian. His main areas of interest include contemporary diplomacy and political history, focusing on the South Caucasus and the Turkic world.

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