The US and UK forces responded to Yemeni attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, increasing risks to international trade. Concerns about the security of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which more than 1 in 5 of the world’s trade passes, have escalated and Western powers are seeking to build a maritime coalition in the region. Houthi leaders in Yemen have threatened further retaliation against shipping after the attack.
Following the airstrikes, global oil prices briefly rose to more than $80 per barrel, but quickly fell back to around $75 per barrel. Although the Suez Canal is still open, the number of ships passing through the canal has dropped significantly. Major shipping companies (including Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk and MSC) have diverted their shipping traffic from the Red Sea/Suez Canal route through the Cape of Good Hope. This is highly undesirable, especially as it will increase the travel time of ships and the cost of fuel. Thus, global freight costs have risen sharply.
Despite the US and UK attacks, the Houthi militias still have the capacity to attack ships in the Red Sea. Despite this threat, fuel markets are fairly calm for now, perhaps because global supplies remain adequate. However, higher transportation costs will eventually put some inflationary pressure on world markets. On this issue, Economist El-Erian said, “We are facing serious downsides, we are living in a new reality where the supply side is stabilizing. The global economy is much more fragile, which means that inflationary tendencies are higher than before.”[i]
The origins of the crisis in Yemen date back to the 1970s and 1980s, and today it has become a multidimensional global crisis. In 2011, after President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down during the Arab Spring, central authority was weakened and Yemen became the stage for regional power struggles. Since then, Yemen has been the scene of a proxy war involving global powers. The actors in this struggle include Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, Sudan, Egypt and, at the global level, the US, UK and Russia.
The crisis here also indirectly concerns European and Asian countries. The Suez Canal, the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Sea of Oman constitute an important part of the trade between east and west. Ensuring the security of these seas is very important. That is why the US and the UK have taken action to establish an international maritime coalition.[ii] Many Western countries have joined this coalition, which aims to ensure maritime security and protect global shipping routes.
These coalitions have also been established in the wake of previous attacks on oil ships in the Sea of Oman or the Persian Gulf. These US-led coalitions also set the stage for regional and global polarization. By joining these naval coalitions, countries from Europe or Asia are in effect choosing an axis in global geopolitics. For example, in the wake of increasing security threats in the Red Sea, the United States invited European countries as well as Asian countries such as India and Australia to join the multinational naval coalition. These engagements deepen the polarization of regional actors with each other. To ease tensions in the Red Sea, India has stepped up its dialog with Iran. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Iran to draw up a plan to alleviate concerns in the region.
It is significant that the two BRICS members discussed the recent tension in the Red Sea and the war in Gaza. India is concerned not only about the escalation of the situation in Gaza, but also about the Houthi attacks on ships off the Indian coast.[iii] Indeed, the Houthis have recently targeted Indian-flagged ships. The US blamed Iran for this attack.
While focusing on the regional and global dimensions of the crisis in Yemen, one should not stray too far from the reality on the ground. It is important to remember that the Houthis are anti-American and anti-Israeli in nature. Therefore, it will not be possible to defuse the crisis in Yemen without stopping the Israeli attacks in Gaza. In this sense, it is not possible to evaluate Hamas-Israel and the Yemen Crisis independently of each other. In conclusion, it is known that actors such as India and China want to open up to the West through Israel. Therefore, we can interpret the Hamas-Israel conflict as a blow to global transportation projects. In this context, the mobilization of Hamas and later the Houthis can be interpreted as part of the power struggle between global powers.
[i] “Red Sea Crisis Drives Inflationary Trading Costs”, Sea Trade, https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/red-sea-crisis-drives-inflationary-trading-costs, (Date of Access: 23.01.2024).
[ii] “US Invites India to Join Naval Coalition in Red Sea”, Livemint, https://www.livemint.com/news/world/us-invites-india-to-join-naval-coalition-in-red-sea-11704356854836.html, (Date of Access: 04.01.2024).
[iii] “Jaishankar bound for Iran; Gaza, Houthi attacks on agenda”, Hindustan Times, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jaishankar-bound-for-iran-gaza-and-houthi-attacks-on-agenda-101705037455396.html, (Date of Access: 04.01.2024).
