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The Taliban Era in Afghanistan and China: ​Did the US Withdraw to Come Back

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Developments after the Taliban took control of Kabul have become one of the most important topics on the international agenda. At this point, it is a matter of curiosity what kind of strategy China will adopt against the Taliban in Afghanistan. It is possible to understand the traces of the policy that Beijing will implement from the reasons for the withdrawal of the United States of America (USA) from the region. Inasmuch, there are some ostensible reasons and one real reason for the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan, which it has occupied since 2001.

Among the ostensible reasons is the fact that the war has become unsustainable in terms of both military losses and financial burden for the USA. However, the main target of the Washington administration is to destabilize China, with which it competes in the global power struggle. In this context, the withdrawal of the USA is explained by many analysts as explained as encouraging Beijing at the point of intervention. Because, if China engage in military intervention in Afghanistan, it is likely that it will sink into the swamp and fail in this country, which is known as the “graveyard of empires”. Moreover, Beijing is also concerned about developments that will destabilize the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in the context of the rise of radicalization. In addition, Washington wants to harm China’s important investments in the region within the scope of the Belt-Road Project and to intimidate to the actors involved in the project.

As it is known, Beijing has long advocated not interfering in the internal affairs of other countries as a principle of foreign policy. This approach of China is also targeted by the USA through Afghanistan. In other words, the Washington administration is trying to undermine Beijing’s image by directing China to that country. However, when we look at the issue from the perspective of the strategic culture that China has had throughout its thousands of years of history, the reasons mentioned seem quite simple and ordinary. Inasmuch, China is aware of the trap that the USA wants to set up. Therefore, it is quite pragmatic that the Beijing administration prefers to negotiate with the Taliban instead of directly intervening in Afghanistan. Because China does not want to experience the failure of the previous empires (Great Britain and the Soviet Union) and finally the USA, which is the superpower of the world, by carrying out a military intervention in a geography known as the ‘cemetery of empires’.

Moreover, China’s thousands of years of strategic culture show that the real victory is to win without battle. Namely, according to Beijing, carrying out a military operation in Afghanistan will have both human and financial burden. Instead, it is more confident for Beijing to develop a relationship with a movement that needs international legitimacy through political recognition and economic encouragement. It is possible to see examples of this in Chinese history in the policies followed by the Chinese towards the Huns, Göktürks, Mongols, Jurcen tribes and other peoples.

If the argument comes true that China will intervene in the problem in order to fill the power gap that will occur in the aforementioned country after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and to prevent chaos, the principle of not interfering in the internal affairs of others, which Beijing has been applying for many years, will be shelved. However, maintaining this principle is very important for China to continue its “peaceful rise” discourse. For this reason, it can be argued that Beijing will not favor the option of military intervention. In addition, unlike major powers such as Russia and the USA, China’s lack of such war experience makes it easier for Beijing to contact the Taliban. By this means, China is not only avoiding the military risks it may face on the ground, but also preparing to recognize the Taliban in an international system that no one knows, thus assure its investments and security. In short, China has adopted a very pragmatist attitude and policy.

In the light of all these evaluations, it can be stated that there is also another purpose behind the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan. Because, the American decision makers are also aware of China’s unique strategic culture historically. In other words, the Americans know that the course of action that Beijing will adopt will not cause to an intervention in Afghanistan. Therefore, the main desire of the USA regarding the withdrawal policy is to destabilize the Belt-Road Project.

For the US, destabilizing the aforementioned project through Afghanistan is the ideal scenario. The Taliban is already an actor who can play this role. For this reason, the United States has welcomed the Taliban’s re-takeover of power. Because the Washington administration thinks that the ideology adopted by this movement is appropriate to create chaos in the region.

A refugee crisis that may occur under the influence of the Taliban, human rights violations and instability that will spread to the region may soon lead the USA to strike the Taliban elements in Afghanistan through its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies or the United Nations (UN). In such an operation, the USA, which sees China as its rival and wants to undermine the Belt-Road Project, may also target China’s investments in this country.

The Washington administration would prefer to do so with a broader coalition, since such an action alone would mean confronting China directly. Thus, the USA may send messages to the countries involved in the Belt-Road Project via Afghanistan, such as:” Leave the Project”, “I am still the dominant force here”, and “the project that I do not approve has no chance of survival”.

Also, Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor should be included in this equation. Because, Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban brings the Islamabad administration to the focus of criticism. China-Pakistan relations have also been developing in a close and amicable for a long time. In this context, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is vitally important for both countries.

The main purpose of China in the project is to have an alternative route against the maritime blockade that the USA, which has 60% of its naval power in the Pacific region, can implement through the East and South China Seas in the case of a conflict with its global rival USA. In this way, China will be able to reach Pakistan’s Gwadar Port from the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region and export its goods to the world. This will also enable China to maintain its energy imports. However, considering Pakistan’s contacts with the Taliban, a coalition that can be formed under the leadership of the US may also attack the Taliban elements in Pakistan. Thus, it may be possible for the US to damage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

As a Result, the reason for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is quite strategic. This decision mainly targets China’s Belt-Road Project. In other words, the Washington administration is preparing to clearly intimidate to all countries participating in the Belt-Road Project through Afghanistan.

Oktay KÜÇÜKDEĞİRMENCİ
Oktay KÜÇÜKDEĞİRMENCİ
Oktay Küçükdeğirmenci, 2015 yılında Balıkesir Üniversitesi Siyaset Bilimi ve Kamu Yönetimi Bölümü’nden mezun olmuştur. 2018 yılında ise Atılım Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı’nda yüksek lisans EĞİTİMİNİ tamamlamıştır. Küçükdeğirmenci, Çin’in Shandong Üniversitesi’nde Uluslararası Politika Anabilim Dalı’nda doktora eğitimine devam etmektedir. Çalışmalarını Çin Dış Politikası, Japonya Dış Politikası, Çin-Japonya İlişkileri, Çin-Rus İlişkileri ve jeopolitik üzerine yürüten Küçükdeğirmenci, iyi derecede İngilizce ve başlangıç seviyesinde Çince bilmektedir.