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Incomplete Settlement Between Ankara and Washington

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In the coming days, Ankara will host US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and White House National Security Adviser Lieutenant General Herbert Raymond McMaster. These accommodations will not be out of the ordinary since in the current situation, the armed forces of both states could confront one another at any moment.

The parties are aware of this situation, hence are keeping the diplomacy on the table. In this context, the visit of the US delegation is remarkable. At this point, the determination of Ankara and desperation of the US is significant.

In this context, Turkey has responded to Washington’s repeated assertations of; “limiting” Operation Olive Branch, “abandoning the offensive towards Munbij”, “you need our support” by retaliating that operations will continue “until all PYD/PKK units are exhumed from the Syrian border”.

Well then, will these visit lead to a conclusion? Not Really. Therefore, it seems that the “pointless period” will continue to prevail in Turkish-American relations

On the other hand, it is apparent that the process cannot continue in this way. In other words, maintaining a sustainable relation between Ankara and Washington under current conditions is not possible. The existing situation only leads to freezing an escalating, deepening, expanding and enduring conflict as much as possible.

Herein the future of the process heavily depends on US’s attitude towards Turkey and the steps it will attain in this regard. The US shall either sit down with Turkey or develop a policy where Ankara has no place on the table.

Herein the goal is clear: Turn international public opinion against Turkey and force Ankara to comply.

If the US Fails to Achieve a Result, the “Dirty Battle” will be Escalated!

In terms of those who closely follow the recent Turkish-American relations, the answer to this question is very simple!

The US will try to endanger and cause causalities for the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and Free Syrian Army (FSA) while also attempting to cause a conflict between the two.

At this point, multidimensional attrition wars towards TAF and FSA are obvious. While the US is targeting TAF and FSA through terrorists with sophisticated weapons to their owners; on the other, the media and a number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), think tanks, are circulating news and reports based on their disinformation, to influence / suppress their manoeuvrability.

It worth remembering the period between March 1 Permit and 2007 Sack crisis whereby the United States utilised mainly PKK and the so-called genocide as means to punish Turkey. The US kept pushing on those topics mercilessly until Erdogan & Bush met in Washington in November 2007 and reached a consensus.

At this point the US will push for a new process with groups it is in conflict with in order to influence Turkey. The US which “failed to use” Turkey in Syria abruptly ended the “model partnership” period and bailed on Turkey during Geneva talks of 2012. Instead the US has sought partnership with Russia and Iran.

The developments that followed are well known. The USA following the 2013 military coup in Egypt and Gezi events has pursued a policy to “neutralise”, “disreputable”, “isolate” and “destabilise” Turkey. These events reached paramount point on “15th of July Hybrid Coup”.

Turkey has not Renounced its “New Republic Project”

Even though the US has not openly discarded Turkey in Syria and the Middle-East, it shall still pursue strain policy as set in the above three examples. The US still believes that Turkey can brought under control. The US which envisioned to initiate a civil war in Turkey via the “15th July Hybrid Coup”, has not abandoned this goal.

So, the name and method are clear: The US wants to transform Turkey via civil strife and terror organisations and Washingston’s choice of “ally” is a direct reference to this issue. Therefore, support to PYD-YPG/PKK/SDG by the US from 2016 showcase how the US is willing to implement its new strategy.

The US believes that there is at least a year or two which it could appraise. Through its “covert war” the US is planning to construct its version of “New Turkish Republic”. In this context an indirect coup via Syria has been mobilised.

During their visit, US authorities will renounce this. However, Turkey has its response ready!

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.