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“Alliance of Apprehension” Against Turkey!

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This alliance is more of a “terror alliance” sweetened by “kind” and “diplomatic” words by Ankara’s so-called allies. Turkey’s conclusive decisions have led to different perspectives and responses, particularly from western states.

In this context, Turkey’s offensive towards Jarablus, Al-Bab, Idlib and now Afrin, which is also expected to further expand-deepen toward East Euphrates has once again established Turkey’s role as a playmaker in the region. This situation has albeit led to criticism and “discourse uniformity”.

This homogeneity is because the results are likely to be severe for western states, while the risks associated are difficult to assess since Turkey has put a resolute stance in the process. Hence, this method is being favoured at the moment.

Some “cyclical allied states” could also be included in the same list. This is because such allies are willing to continue their relationship until the “ox” is dead and go back to “unfinished business” once the issue is resolved. This also opens the invitation to new oxen.

“Apprehension Sauced” threats to Ankara!

A few concrete examples relating to the situation above would be well enough to clarify the “friend-ally ring” Turkey is exposed to. For this, samples will be listed chronologically from first to last.

The first instance came from Federica Mogherini, EU Foreign and Security Policies High Representative during a joint plenary session on the topic of “Human Rights in Turkey” and “The Situation in Afrin”.

Mogherini stated that the Afrin operation is likely to cause a humanitarian crisis and negatively affect negotiations in Syria. She also said that; “opening new fronts aren’t a solution and will not make Turkey safer. Real security can only be possible via a negotiated political settlement. We believe that military operations should focus only on terror-listed organisations by the United Nations.”

This is not the first instance of assertion by Mogherini! In a press statement on 22th of January, she declared that the EU “was anxious” about Turkey’s Olive Branch Operation. Herein, the words “new fronts” and “Turkey’s security” are new additions.

What is more remarkable is the fact that Mogherini’s accounts were delivered on the same day Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State indicated that the US was “apprehensive” of Turkey’s Afrin operation.

The French President, Emmanuel Macron which is supposed to be “Turkey’s Friend,” has employed a similar show of concern. Macron stated that the operation carried out by Turkey in Afrin should not turn into an occupation. Otherwise, it would be a great concern for France. He stated that; “Turkey should carry out its offensive in coordination with its western allies.”

Herein the vital point of the matter is that a perception operation is being carried against Turkey by the West. Following Turkey’s resolute stance, the West is trying to limit further gains by coercing Ankara into a “new alliance.”

Meanwhile, the UN, whose primary mission is to preserve peace, stability, security and human rights in the world has joined this “campaign”. UN spokesperson Stefan Dujarric made a statement on 19th of January expressing “concern” of Turkey’s operation which had not yet begun. There are very few cases where the UN is so “tender” and “proactive”.

“Futile” Elucidations!

What upsets Turkey, are statements expressed by friendly neighbours and allies which lead to concern and disquiet. As these comments showed a substantial increase in the recent period, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan asserted that “I don’t believe Russia and Iran will adopt such stance”.

Recent accounts by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, indicate that Turkey’s concerns are legit. This declaration was a first by Rouhani about the Olive Branch Operation.

Speaking at a press conference attended by domestic and foreign journalists, Rouhani called the operation “futile” and asserted that; “We have strong relations with Turkey and Russia on regional issues. Our principle attitude is that an army enters the territory of another country upon the request of relevant state and its people. Otherwise, we find this not to be right. We desire that this operation is ended as soon as possible because both our Turkish brothers and Kurds are losing their lives.”

Taking into consideration Iran’s current foreign policy and the warning above no comment can be made due to irrelevancy.

In conclusion, states “quarrelling” with each other see Turkey as the way out of the grave crisis. What is indeed worrying is the possibility of discourse turning into action.

However, whatever is going to happen will happen since the sleeping giant has awakened!

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.