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Did the US Change Strategy Against Turkey?

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Turkey’s resolute attitude and operations in the field since 24th of August 2016, has caused the US to lose composure. Washington which until yesterday supported its discourse; “Turkey will eventually seek US support in Syria” has begun to realise that such rhetoric is harmful and likely to have multi-dimensional margins, which include Russia, China, and Iran along with NATO and the EU.

The US is aware of the fact that if Turkey is mislaid irremediably; its global hegemony and western leadership will be endangered. Furthermore, such occurrence would also cause chaos in domestic politics too. In other words, a struggle for power within the western world and a second civil war could be initiated in the United States.

Although it is late, the US has begun understanding that Turkey is one of the central actors of the “New World Order”. Another fact that the US takes into consideration is the reality of Turkish politics and dynamics which indicate that relations between the two will never be the same again.

Furthermore, this will have openly announced that it will not be a part of US’s unilateral interventions and massacres. This is also the underlying factor of the struggle between Turkey and US for decades.

The New Strategy is built on “Scapegoat” and “We Understand You”!

The US is trying to meet/reconcile with this new behest in a new fashion. Hence, a new strategy has been put into practice to gain Turkey. In this regard, Washington is crinkling in a bad way and looking for a scapegoat and Russia has become the pigeon. In this context, the statement of US State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert: “By its statements, Russia is not only causing avoidance but also leading to a split between two NATO.” is substantial.

According to Nauert, Russia is responsible for the division between Turkey and US/NATO, not PYD-YPG/SDG/PKK terror organisations and Washington’s policies of Neo-Sevres.

Nauert is apparently living in a different universe. Following the jet crisis between Turkey and Russia on 25th of November, the US turned the tension into an opportunity and chose a terror group as an ally rather than Turkey. It seems that Russia has made this preference to.

Such statements lack any serious state policy and highlight that the US has lost its deterrence. The US should give up these self-conceited attitudes. Furthermore, no state can sustain such “cold-blooded” assertions.

The reason the US is quickly collapsing is due to such names and the dreams they will never actualise.

Of course, there some names that are trying to garner a more reasonable approach, for instance, Michael Doran. Doran, an expert on Middle-East, said the following about US’s ambition to establish a new order in Syria via PYD/PKK terror organisation rather than Turkey. “Since Barack Obama’s term, incorrect assertions have been made that PYD is different from PKK. You cannot explain this to any Turk.”

The New Strategy: Reconciliation Rather Than Conflict!

Likewise, the US up until yesterday has stood with PYD and ran its flag along with rags of the terror organisation while warning Turkey not to initiate “an operation” is now willing to give up on Afrin, for the East of Euphrates in return. That said, the US once again selling out its trust and threatening with action.

In this context, acting within the framework of Pentagon’s strategy to regain to Turkey, spokesperson Adrian Rankine Galloway statements are paramount. Galloway stated that “if PYD decides to support their counterparts in Afrin, they shall lose our support and will no longer be our allies.”.

The US is trying to support this new strategy with NATO too. Even though NATO’s assertations vary to United States avowals, it is a known truth that NATO cannot exist without US support. Hence NATO’s realisations can be considered as an extension of US strategy.

In this context, following Turkey’s operation against PYD/PKK terror organisation in Afrin, the visit of Rose Gottemoeller, NATO’s Deputy Secretary-General to Ankara is critical. In her visit Gottemoeller, stated that “NATO understands the suffering of Turkey from the threat of terrorism.” However, until the operation, unintended negative consequences were voiced in Turkish-US/Western relations and Turkey-NATO.

Therefore, power reigns and it is necessary to speak in a language that the US understands. Turkey should continue to utilise this language until the ultimate goals are achieved. Sweet talks and groundless promises should be disregarded.

Finally, the US aims to implement a new strategy to divide Turkey via reconciliation, not conflict. Therefore, being aware and alert is compulsory!

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.