Central Asia’s strategic location has a profound impact on regional security and stability. This interview examines how great power competition is shaping the dynamics in Central Asia and its overall impact on the region.
Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents an interview with Dr. Albina Muratbekova from the Eurasian Research Institute of Khoja Ahmet Yesevi International Kazakh-Turkish University to assess developments in Central Asia.
1-In your opinion, what steps could be taken to enhance economic and cultural cooperation among Central Asian countries? What do you consider to be the key elements of regional development in this context?
With renewed leadership in Central Asia and geopolitical shifts in Eurasian geopolitics, the sense of regional integrity and regional solidarity in Central Asia has increased. The strengthening of regional cohesion also stimulated debates on the formation of a regional identity. It is noticeable across different levels, including high-level forums, academia, and media.
Economic cooperation is undoubtedly seen as one of the main factors promoting greater regional integration. It serves as a foundation for shared prosperity and sustainable development and plays a pivotal role in shaping regional dynamics. In Central Asia, an enhancement of regional economic cooperation evidences the easing of tensions and misunderstandings between the regional leaders. The intensification of meetings between the regional leaders and the work of the consultative meetings, along with the high-level meetings involving certain ministries, created conditions for easing trade regulations and transportation. As a result, the trade volume between the regional economies reached over $10 billion in the past year, doubling over the previous five years (nCA, 2023).
However, to fully leverage the potential of economic engagement, more measures should be taken to ease trade rules. Elimination of trade barriers and harmonisation of laws will enable businesses to achieve better economic cooperation. To this end, the regional trade agreement is essential. The regional governments already started to work in this direction when, in April 2023, they signed a regional agreement on the collaboration of a National Committee for Trade Facilitation. If concluded the regional trade agreement might facilitate not only the liberalisation of trade policies, foster the opening of new spheres of trade, and improve social welfare, but also strengthen regional integration.
The digitalization of all spheres also opens up opportunities for promoting intra-regional trade. Given that all Central Asian governments are extensively working on digital transformation, digitising customs services and expanding e-commerce prospects could lead to a rise in intra-regional commercial relations. Kazakhstan, as a leading country in the region in terms of digitalization, can share its experience and spearhead the growth of regional e-commerce, while other Central Asian states with a good level of industrialization could provide sufficient goods and products for consumers in regional marketplaces.
The legacy of a once common market might also help to develop joint infrastructure development activities that also contribute to stimulating better economic integration and, hence, strengthen regional unity. Regional stakeholders are working comprehensively to expand the economic, transport, and logistics potential of the region. Joint initiatives in fields such as renewable energy, transportation, and communication networks would facilitate a sense of connectivity and solidarity among nations.
Apart from economic cooperation, common cultural heritage also promotes a solid basis for strengthening regional coherence. The centuries-long connections, including the recent legacy of the Soviet era, create ideal circumstances for enhancing the degree of cultural exchange in the area. Deep cultural links allow for boosting interaction in fields such as education, culture, and tourism exchange, among others.
While most Central Asian countries are trying to move towards internationalisation, there are still traces of the Soviet past in their educational systems. On the other hand, during times of globalisation, the competition for niches in education has grown exponentially. Therefore, Central Asian education institutions could unite their efforts in competing to attract regional students and promote regional exchange opportunities. In terms of research collaboration, similarly, the common legacy of research infrastructure and research approaches provides a brilliant ground for enhancing scientific collaboration. By uniting efforts, scientists could assist each other in implementing projects as well as share new approaches that contribute to producing new knowledge that is grounded in local realities.
The cultural sphere demonstrates the centuries-long interlinked cultural tapestry of the region. Nomadic heritage, architecture, oral and written traditions, music, dance, and common religion all serve as a bridge to the region’s past and present. Greater awareness of the rich legacy of a culturally diverse and historically significant region Central Asia fosters regional identity formation.
Awareness of belonging to the region and its historical interlinkage promotes a boost to intra-regional tourism. The promotion of intra-regional tourism enables visitors to immerse themselves in the history of the area, along with increasing people-to-people contacts. Hence, establishing ties at the grassroots level based on common cultural, linguistic, ethnic, and touristic heritage will promote the development of a sense of regional identity and belonging.
The elements of cooperation mentioned serve as a basis for deepening regional cooperation and facilitating the formation of a regional identity. While the political systems in the region rely on a top-down approach to activate discussions, if the initiative originates at the grassroots level, it may result in a more deliberate and successful growth of regional engagement that also helps to shape regional identity. Promoting regional coherence through media and academic coverage will also stimulate these processes, whereas deepening business ties will provide financial benefits for enhanced partnerships.
2-According to your perspective, how can Central Asian countries establish more effective collaboration with major Asian powers in the areas of sustainable development and environmental protection?
Being signatories of the Paris Agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, and the UNFCCC, Central Asian states are keen to work on sustainable development and environmental protection of the region. All Central Asian governments had created institutional and legal frameworks for advancing their national strategies in mitigating the effects of climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, creating scenarios for adaptation, and adopting policies to regulate emissions. They have agreed on a Regional Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change in Central Asia and developed a Regional Statement of the Central Asian countries. According to the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), governments of Central Asia pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from 10% to 15% by 2030; while with outside funding, this reduction might rise to 30%, depending on the country indicators (1990 baseline) (CAMP4ASB, 2019). In order to promote regional cooperation in the areas of the environment and sustainable development, the Advisory Council of the Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development of Central Asian Countries was established.
Central Asia has semi-arid and arid environments, very little forest cover, and declining glacier masses. Glaciers in the Central Asian mountains have already dropped by 25% in the past 50 years. Meanwhile, for tackling climate change challenges in the region, external support is essential. Therefore, Central Asian governments work with both European and Asian colleagues, as well as with the support of international organisations.
In virtue of geographical closeness, China shares similar environmental challenges in the border regions with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan and assists in overcoming common challenges. In particular, to enable effective water distribution along the Kazakh-Chinese borders, a joint hydraulic facility was constructed alongside the Khorgos River. To assist in irrigating land, China has constructed reservoirs and canals in the Kyrgyz Republic’s Issyk-Kul area. In Tajikistan, recently a brand-new observation station for tracking temperature and ecology was stationed by Chinese. However, Chinese assistance is coupled with concerns because the highly industrialised projects within the Belt and Road Initiative could provoke tensions in water, environmental protection, and other issues related to sustainable development.
Projects implemented within the Official Development Assistance (ODA) mechanism of Japan involve technical cooperation, capacity-building, and different types of financial assistance. South Korea also, through its ODA mechanisms, develops cooperative initiatives that address local needs and provide access to climate funds. It encourages climate-smart farming in Central Asia, along with assisting in capacity-building training to name but a few.
In general, Asian partners, either bilaterally or through international institutes, support Central Asia’s sustainable development and environmental protection through their regional cooperation frameworks and by developing policy alignments. To strengthen the capacity of Central Asia, it is essential to invest in capacity-building programmes that aim to improve the expertise of researchers, government officials, and professionals, along with the facilitation of technology transfers and encouraging joint development initiatives to raise awareness about environmental issues and sustainable practices among the public.
3-How is the regional security and stability of Central Asia shaped within the framework of its relations with the major Asian powers? What, in your opinion, are the effects of these dynamics on the region?
Due to its strategic location between two powerful nations—China and Russia—and the border with Afghanistan, a long-standing threat to regional security and stability, Central Asia plays a vital role in maintaining stability for the whole Eurasian system. Located in Asia, it also means that Central Asian security is deeply intertwined with its Asian partners.
Undoubtedly, the situation in Afghanistan impacts the regional security and stability of Central Asia and shapes the regional security framework. Due to the enduring conflict there, it is still far from removing from the agenda the Afghanistan factor when considering Central Asian security.
China’s role in maintaining regional stability is important, especially given its activities to maintain security in Tajik’s borders. India, being among the major defence partners of the region, also puts significant efforts into maintaining the stability of the region and developing the capacity of army personnel and military equipment.
The region is vulnerable to transnational dangers such as organised crime, drug trafficking, and terrorism, which are made worse by its proximity to Afghanistan and the porousness of parts of its borders. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was established to find solutions to these problems since it considers the three evils—terrorism, separatism, and extremism—to be mostly security-related challenges of the region. Within the SCO, the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) was created to ensure its maintenance.
The regional security and stability of Central Asia are considered among the key factors that shape not only the Central Asian dynamics but also impact the greater Eurasian geopolitics due to its strategic location in the “heartlands” of Eurasia.
Dr. Albina Muratbekova
Dr. Albina Muratbekova is a Senior Research Fellow at the Eurasian Research Institute of the Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, where she is writing policy briefs on Asian affairs, with a specific focus on China, India, and Central Asian countries. She holds a PhD degree in Oriental Studies from Al Farabi Kazakh National University. During her studies, she won a postdoctoral studies fellowship from the University of Fribourg; a EUCACIS PhD support programme fellowship (Erasmus+ and Volkswagen Foundation); a Fudan University Fellowship in International Politics (Chinese Politics and Diplomacy); and an ITEC (India) certificate course participation. Her primary research interests cover China-India relations; Central, East, and South Asian affairs; Soviet science diplomacy; and the formation of the Soviet social sciences, including Oriental studies.
