Russian-Ukrainian war which is ongoing for approximately for three months, Russian army has focused mostly on the east of Ukraine. In this scope Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) is drawing attention to Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy International Relations Specialist Bledar Feta’s view on the Russia’s potential future actions and course of war in Ukraine.
Russian forces continue their attacks in the East Ukraine. How do you perceive the developments related to war?
It is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a fragile position. His plans of war went out of schedule and he realized that there is no fast and certain way left for a decisive victory however, he also knows that scenario of losing this war is an unacceptable possibility. In the current situation, Kremlin determines the objectives of war in the direction of the situation on the battlefield. Therefore, we can argue that Russia has abandoned or at least delayed- until the necessary conditions appear- the objectives of capturing Kiev and overthrowing the Ukrainian government. Thus, Putin may decide that denazification of Ukraine is complete and neutrality of Ukraine has achieved and end the war. Yet, even in this scenario, real problem would be the invaded territory of Ukraine. Putin will never accept a peace agreement that gains nothing viable with thousands of Russian soldiers lay dead.
Russian Army has turn its eyes to the east of the Ukraine. How does the war in Ukraine is proceeding? How do you perceive?
Russian Army concentrating on the Eastern Ukraine and attempting to gain full control on the southern areas, may perceived as an action for unifying the invaded Ukrainian territory to directly to Russia. Invading the land corridor which connects the Donetsk and Luhansk cities, which are located in the Eastern Ukraine with Crimea’s southern areas, will not only assist Putin’s claims to denazification of Ukraine; but also will help Russia to start the peace negotiations with a better deck of cards. If plans of Putin for the east and south of Ukraine turns fruitless, Russia will find itself in an unfavorable position. Such a situation will increase the risk of escalation including a possible nuclear strike. Kremlin has already utilized the so-called strategy of “escalation for the sake of de-escalation.” Therefore, Russia may hope to end the war in favorable terms and may use a threat of a non-strategic nuclear strike.
How do you see the West’s approach to Ukraine?
Western powers seem to “putting all the eggs into one basket”. There is a consensus in West about a need for a Ukrainian victory against Russia due to the Putin’s ambitions of domination which exceeds Ukraine’s borders. This fact has consolidated the view of the elite of the EU’s on anti-Russian sentiment. Decreasing EU’s divisions on the Russia and the level of sanction is on the right track, however there are questions regarding how long will this consensus last, and whether this consensus will be enough to allow EU emerge even stronger from this conflict. Besides, EU’s approach to Ukraine has lots of boundaries. First of these; possibility of Western support ending when a risk of direct and a general risk of confrontation emerges. Another one lies in the dependency in energy field. War has shown that dependency is rather one-sided. Therefore, EU’s position in every field which are related to security, need to be evaluated according to the capability of the organization. Decisions primarily taken by the member states, thus EU has limited jurisdiction on defense and security. In this extend, we can argue that, there is a need for actualizing the concept of “European Defense Union” after the developments in the Ukraine.
