Serbia, who tries to follow an “unbiased” and “balanced” policy in the Russian-Ukrainian War, remained in limbo between the European Union (EU) and Russia in that process. On the one hand, the Belgrade administration condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; on the other hand, it steadfastly refuses to join the EU sanctions against Moscow. In the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, Serbia, which aspires to EU membership, has found it difficult to maintain its relations with both the EU and Russia. Since his inauguration in 2017, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has been facing an uphill struggle to pursue a balanced foreign policy.
In this context, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Strahinja Subotic, a Senior Researcher at the European Policy Center (CEP) based in Serbia, to evaluate EU-Serbia relations in the context of the Russia-Ukraine War.
- EU accession aspirant Serbia has announced that it will not impose sanctions on Russia. First of all, how do you evaluate Serbia’s foreign policy towards Russia?
I think your question is about whether Serbia can impose sanctions on Russia… Serbia is expected to impose sanctions on Russia as part of the eight-sanctions package prepared by the EU. In fact, Serbia has been obliged to do so since it started accession negotiations in 2014. However, this has to be done gradually in the process of accession negotiations. In other words, the harmonization process proceeds step by step based on goodwill. The key point here is that while Serbia has been trying to maintain a balance between East and West for a long time, it has stagnated or made very limited progress in foreign policy due to its relationship not only with Russia but also with China.
- The EU has called on Serbia to join sanctions against Russia over the Ukrainian War, stressing that maintaining close ties with Moscow is not compatible with the idea of building a common future with the EU. However, Serbia seems to be firm in its stance. What does this process mean for the future of EU-Serbia relations?
Taking into account most of the EU regulations and sanctions targeting Russia, Serbia’s overall compliance percentage dropped from 64% to 45%. This is a cause for alarm for the EU institutions. In fact, the EU Commission, the European Parliament, and member states have called on Serbia to align its foreign policy with the EU and join the sanctions against Russia.
To summarize briefly, if Serbia does not impose sanctions on Russia, it risks stagnation on its path to the EU and will not be able to make any progress. We can characterize this process as “permanent stagnation.” In other words, rather than the rule of law and the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, the relevant chapters could also be closed if Serbia fails to make concrete progress on this issue.
Therefore, the foreign policy issue is based on grounds that will affect Serbia’s overall perspective of future EU membership. So, of course, this process is very damaging for Serbia as a state. This is why the calls for solidarity, especially for Ukraine, will be a crucial test for Serbia.
- Can we say that Belgrade is at a crossroads between Russia and the EU? How will Serbia overcome this challenge in its balanced foreign policy?
Serbia sees the EU perspective in functional terms. That is, Belgrade uses the EU as a tool to benefit its own financial interests without really believing in the values of the union. There is also the possibility that the EU could sanction Serbia by suspending the visa exemption granted to Serbia in 2019. Although this is very unlikely, it is mentioned as a scenario. Therefore, the EU could reinstate the visa regime if Serbia does not act as expected.
In terms of EU benefits to Serbia, visa and liberalization are seen as the most important issues. In addition, the EU and Serbia signed the Stabilization and Association Charter, which guarantees free trade. Considering that two-thirds of this trade come from the EU, this is an important issue for Serbia. On the other hand, the EU is the largest donor and investor in Serbia compared to other countries. Therefore, EU investors play an important role in Serbia’s economy, and any disengagement from the EU could put this business environment at risk.
- Will the EU pressure on Serbia increase? Will Serbia also be forced to choose sides?
Serbia may impose sanctions on Russia, but this process is likely to be gradual. In other words, we should not expect Serbia to impose a package of eight sanctions overnight. Such a step would mean that Serbia would completely turn its back on Russia. Therefore, even if Belgrade decides to impose sanctions, it will not do so in a blatant or overt manner, as other states have done. Undoubtedly, Serbia will try not to anger Russia too much, as it is an important stakeholder in the oil industry. Also, the vast majority of Serbs feel close to Russian society, literature, culture, and of course history and religion. Therefore, all these factors show why Serbian citizens are reluctant to side with the EU against Russia despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. In conclusion, if Serbia wants to continue enjoying the advantages of the EU, it will sanction Russia, but this will be a gradual process. Moreover, if Belgrade imposes sanctions against Moscow in the near future, Serbian foreign policy may suffer a loss of confidence.
Strahinja Subotic:
He is a Program Manager and Senior Research Fellow at the European Policy Center (CEP). His areas of expertise are EU enlargement policy and the geography of the Western Balkans. He holds a Master’s degree in Political Science from the Central European University (CEU) in Hungary. He is currently pursuing his Ph.D. at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Belgrade. He also studied at the University of Missouri under a program funded by the US State Department.
