Following the November 10, 2020 Moscow Declaration, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been and are currently engaged in various negotiations on the signing of a permanent peace agreement. Since Russia was the main actor that played a decisive role in the signing of the ceasefire agreement, it was seen that Moscow came to the forefront in the mediation diplomacy regarding the peace agreement. However, in the course of time, meetings were also held in which the United States (US) Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought together Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. As a matter of fact, both Washington and Moscow are continuing the process for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. However, it can be seen that the European Union (EU) has become the dominant actor in mediation.
Essentially, this is due to the EU’s genuine interest in the stability of the South Caucasus. This is because the Union is facing serious problems due to the energy crisis, especially in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War, and logistical problems in its supply chains due to the blockage of the Northern Corridor. In such an environment, the importance of the Central Corridor has increased for the EU. Therefore, the stability of the South Caucasus, both in logistical and energy terms, has become more important than ever.
Moreover, both Azerbaijan and Armenia have a positive attitude towards the EU’s mediation and perceive it as a reliable mediator. This is due to the importance both actors attach to relations with the EU.
First of all, to mention Azerbaijan, the Baku administration both wants to export its own energy resources to Europe and tries to act as a bridge for the transportation of the resources of the Caspian littoral states to Europe. This is confirmed by the energy agreement Azerbaijan signed with the EU in July 2022 [1] and the rapprochement in its relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.[2]
Armenia, on the other hand, has been isolated from the world for 30 years due to the occupation of Karabakh and has become dependent on Russia and Iran. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan believes that this isolation has impoverished the Armenian people. Therefore, he wants to reach out to the West. Healthy relations with the West require normalization with Azerbaijan. In this process, Yerevan sees the EU as an ideal mediator.
Due to all these reasons, Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiations mediated by the EU gained momentum in June 2023. In this context, a meeting was held on June 1, 2023 in Moldova at the European Political Community Summit with the participation of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and President of the European Council Charles Michel. During the meeting, issues such as the demarcation of the borders between the two countries, mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity and the situation of Karabakh Armenians were discussed.[3]
Michel also stated that a summit will be held in Brussels on July 21, 2023 with the participation of the same leaders and that the meeting in Moldova is a preliminary preparation for the meeting to be held on July 21, 2023.[4] On June 6, 2023, the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the Georgian crisis Toivo Klaar visited Baku.[5] This means that the EU continues the process of normalization in the South Caucasus through shuttle diplomacy. Probably, Klaar is trying to find a middle ground between Baku and Yerevan and in this context to clarify the issues to be discussed on July 21, 2023.
It should be emphasized that this effort is also crucial. Because, although Azerbaijan and Armenia seem to be close to an agreement on many issues, there are serious differences between the approaches of the parties on two issues. The first of these is the Zangezur Corridor. While Baku is waiting for the corridor to be opened, Yerevan seems to be slowing down this process.
The second is the situation of Karabakh Armenians. Although Armenia has some demands on this issue, Azerbaijan states that this issue is its internal matter and refuses to make any concessions. It seems that the EU is trying to find a middle ground in these differences.
In conclusion, the EU cares about the stability of the South Caucasus due to the energy and logistical problems in the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian War and wants an agreement to be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia that will ensure lasting peace. In return, both states involved in the conflict perceive the EU as a reliable mediator. This makes Brussels the center of the negotiation process. Although it is not possible to resolve the conflicts between the parties in the short term, there is a strong will for peace.
[1] “EU Agrees Deal with Azerbaijan to Double Gas Exports by 2027”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/07/18/von-der-leyen-heads-to-azerbaijan-to-secure-new-gas-import-deal, (Date of Accession: 07.06.2022).
[2] Doğacan Başaran, “Azerbaycan-Özbekistan Yakınlaşması ve Hazar’da İşbirliği Arayışları”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/azerbaycan-ozbekistan-yakinlasmasi-ve-hazarda-isbirligi-arayislari/, (Date of Accession: 07.06.2023).
[3] “EU-Mediated Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit Underway in Moldova”, Armenpress, https://www.armenpress.am/eng/news/1112316/, (Date of Accession: 07.06.2023).
[4] Ibid.
[5] “EU Special Rep for South Caucasus to Arrive in Baku”, Report.az, , (Date of Accession: 07.06.2023).
