On 2 August 2022, following the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States of America (USA), to Taiwan, China announced 8-item “counter measures” in response. One of these items was the suspension of high-level military contacts. As of this date, military contacts that could reduce the risk of possible conflict between the two countries had disappeared.
Over the past period, the US side has made intensive efforts to restart these talks. Finally, on 16 November 2023, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to San Francisco, in a meeting with US President Joe Biden, the two sides agreed to put bilateral relations back on track and resume the defence dialogue.[1] Subsequently, on 21 December 2023, the Pentagon announced that General Charles Brown, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, had a meeting with his Chinese People’s Liberation Army counterpart, General Liu Zhenli.[2] Which side is most interested in resuming these military contacts, and how will they affect the course of bilateral rivalry?
The resumption of these talks after a long hiatus can be seen as an attempt by the parties to prepare for new geopolitical earthquakes in the world. Indeed, while the war in Ukraine is still raging, the US is seeking to buy time to deal with new crises in the Middle East. Again, China aims to minimise the negative effects of unpredictable crises in the world and the competition with the US on its economy.
In addition to the current risks and threats, there are also some uncertainties that are likely to harm bilateral relations in the future. For example, in January 2024, Taiwan’s elections could see a serious contest between the pro-US Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) or the Kuomintang, which has close ties with mainland China. The outcome of these elections could create major ruptures in US-China relations. Again, the possible end of the Russian-Ukrainian War and the resulting shift of Russian interest towards the Asia-Pacific could lead to a further hardening of the US approach to China. A Republican candidate winning the US presidential election at the end of 2024 could lead to a renewed deepening of the trade war with China and a further escalation of military tensions.
The Pentagon stresses “the importance of working together to manage competition responsibly, avoid miscalculations, and maintain open and direct lines of communication”. This is because the United States can use China’s moderate approach, which values dialogue and cooperation, to advance its own interests. More precisely, China’s pro-dialogue and pro-cooperation stance may pave the way for the US to further advance its interests in Taiwan and other potential crisis areas. It should be recalled that the US was in constant contact with China until 2 August 2022, when Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, landed her plane in Taiwan. In other words, Washington and the Pentagon intensively used communication channels to prevent any Chinese intervention during this visit. Thanks to the close dialogue with China during this potential crisis, the US was able to visit Taiwan and thus improve its image in the global arena.
In the statements made by the US, it is stated that “real dialogue will reduce misunderstandings. The main issue on which the two countries disagree or have difficulty in understanding each other is whether the parties are making unilateral moves to change the status quo on issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. According to China, the US is trying to unilaterally change Taiwan’s status quo by paying diplomatic visits to Taiwan, providing military support, pledging to defend the island, and supporting its participation in international organizations. This is unacceptable as it is China’s red line. The US, on the other hand, sees China’s activities in the region as “moves to change the status quo”.
Mutual understanding is critical for stable and sustainable relations between the two superpowers. Beijing has frequently stated that Washington should be “careful and consistent in its words and actions”. This is because, on the one hand, the United States continues its rapprochement with Taiwan, while on the other hand, the United States has expressed its respect for China’s “One China” principle. However, as China approaches the US with a win-win approach, Washington is now finding it difficult to sustain its policy of strategic ambiguity. It will be valuable for the parties to be able to explain their intentions to each other correctly and sincerely in order to prevent possible future conflicts. Neither side wants a major military confrontation in the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, the resumption of military dialogue would be useful to quickly reduce tensions.
[1] @POTUS, “Today, I’m announcing that the U.S. and PRC are resuming military-to-military communications.”, X, 16 November 2023, https://x.com/POTUS/status/1724976837086904382?s=20, (Date Accesion: 23.11.2023).
[2] “US And China Resume Military Contacts at The Highest Level”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/e499f036-ab76-4c1a-a53e-b2583bd1bc45, (Date Accesion: 23.12.2023).
