Recent statements by United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump regarding Cuba indicate that Washington is once again shifting toward hard power and instruments of pressure in its Latin American policy. The designation of Cuba as the “next target” immediately following military and diplomatic maneuvers against Iran reflects the U.S. desire to establish a continuous hegemony in its regional strategy. In this context, the Cuba issue creates a multi-layered crisis area that should be analyzed not only within the framework of bilateral relations, but also through Venezuela, energy security, and regional power balances.[1]
From the perspective of classical negotiation theories, Trump’s statements that the Cuban leadership “wants to make a deal” can be interpreted as part of a strategy to portray the other side as weak and ready to make concessions.[2] Such discourses serve the purpose of establishing psychological superiority before negotiations and shape public opinion accordingly. However, the fact that the Cuban administration does not confirm these claims suggests that an institutionalized negotiation process has not yet been formed between the parties.
One of the most significant developments drawing attention in this process is the removal of the Nicolas Maduro administration from power in Venezuela. The cheap oil that Venezuela has provided to Cuba for many years functions as one of the fundamental elements sustaining the Havana administration’s economic and social system. The disappearance of this support leads to a serious disruption in Cuba’s energy supply and further weakens the country’s already fragile economic structure.
The reflections of the energy crisis on daily life are becoming quite evident. The electricity outages occurring across the country directly affect not only industrial production but also basic living conditions. It is seen that Cuba, which is largely dependent on fossil fuels for electricity generation, cannot operate its thermoelectric power plants at full capacity due to the inability to supply sufficient oil. When combined with infrastructure deficiencies, this situation causes widespread and long-term outages.
Another dimension of the energy crisis manifests itself through the disruptions emerging in urban life. The failure of garbage collection services poses serious risks to public health. The public’s tendency to burn garbage using alternative methods increases air pollution and deepens health problems. These developments show that the social and environmental dimensions of the economic crisis are also becoming increasingly severe.
One of the primary goals of the pressure policies implemented by the U.S. is to pull Cuba into a weaker position at the negotiation table. This strategy aims to force the regime to make concessions through economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation. However, it is known that such policies have historically often failed to produce the expected results. A similar situation is observed in the case of Cuba. For the impact of the sanctions is largely felt by the public, while the political elites can use this pressure to reinforce the legitimacy of the regime.
At this point, the role of Marco Rubio, who stands out as the U.S. Secretary of State, also draws attention. The involvement of Rubio, a politician of Cuban origin, in the process carries both symbolic and strategic meanings. This situation shows that the U.S. is inclined to use the diaspora factor more effectively in its Cuba policy. At the same time, it is also evaluated as a signal of a possible diplomatic contact.
The crisis Cuba is in is not limited to energy and economy only. The decline in the tourism sector has significantly reduced the country’s foreign exchange earnings. In particular, the suspension of flights by international airlines due to problems in fuel supply leads to the weakening of one of the most important income sources of the Cuban economy. This situation causes the crisis to turn into a self-perpetuating cycle.
The Cuban government’s permission for the private sector to import fuel to a limited extent can be seen as a pragmatic step toward alleviating the crisis. However, such measures can only meet a small portion of the country’s general energy needs. Therefore, it can be stated that these initiatives provide temporary relief rather than solving structural problems.
From a social perspective, the Cuban people continue to live in an environment of increasing uncertainty and insecurity. There is concern that electricity outages will lead to even more severe consequences, especially with the approach of the summer months. The inability to use basic cooling tools such as air conditioners and fans makes living conditions seriously difficult. This situation brings with it the risk of potential social unrest.
The reflections of the Cuba crisis in the international system can be analyzed not only within the framework of U.S.-Cuba relations but also in terms of multilateral diplomacy. It is observed that actors such as European Union countries and Canada, in particular, tend to maintain their economic and tourism relations with Cuba. This situation shows that the pressure policy implemented by the U.S. does not fully resonate on a global scale. Therefore, the Cuba issue brings the ongoing debates on the effectiveness of unilateral sanctions in the international system back to the agenda.
The current situation in Cuba also draws attention for its potential to trigger regional migration movements. The worsening of economic conditions and the difficulty in accessing basic services can cause especially the young population to head out of the country. In this context, the crisis in Cuba carries the risk of creating a new migration pressure across the Caribbean and Latin America, similar to the Venezuelan migration wave. These developments produce dynamics that could lead regional countries to reconsider their migration policies.
In conclusion, it is understood that the U.S. pressure policy toward Cuba is based on a multi-dimensional strategy. The deepening of the energy crisis is directly linked to the developments in Venezuela, and Washington evaluates this situation as a geopolitical opportunity. However, it remains uncertain whether this strategy will lead to regime change in the short term. On the contrary, existing data indicate that such pressures mostly increase humanitarian costs and aggravate the burden on society.
[1] Grant, Will. “Trump Sets His Sights on Crisis-Hit Cuba After Iran Action.”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14m5mj055jo, (Date Accessed: 22.03.2026).
[2] Ibid.
