Before the G20 Summit, which took place in Indonesia on November 15, 2022, United States (US) President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and gave moderate messages on improving bilateral relations and keeping them away from crises. With this meeting, the possibility of a new crisis in Taiwan decreased and the international community took a deep breath. Shortly after that, on November 22, 2022, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe in Cambodia, where he went for the 9th ASEAN Defense Ministers meeting. Austin said that communication channels between the two countries should remain open to avoid conflict at a time when tensions are rising in the Indo-Pacific.[1]
These two developments gave the impression that the US was trying to get its relations with China back on track and to prevent competition from turning into a crisis. However, upon the emergence of the Covid-19 protests in China in this process, the White House continued to interfere in China’s internal affairs by making a statement on the subject. “We’ve been saying for a long time that everyone in the US and around the world has the right to peaceful protest,” said John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council. This includes the People’s Republic of China.” he said.[2]
In the continuation of his words, Kirby stated that China’s “Zero Covid Policy” did not yield results and this was proven by other examples in the world.[3] At a time when it was trying to improve relations with Beijing, the White House signaled that it would not give up on its old policies with this statement.[4] The US defends democracy, open and free society and liberal economic order all over the world. But applying these policies against China can lead to dangerous tension and even conflict.
The national strength of the US is based on democracy, and China’s weakest point is the states that are autonomous or governed by a special system. In other words, Washington uses values such as democracy and human rights. With the export of democracy, countries liberalize, and the door is opened for Western companies. But since China is a closed society, acting without knowing the realities of the field is risky for the US. In other words, the US’s implementation of wrong policies regarding the Covid protests in China could have caused a Taiwan-like crisis in bilateral relations.
Washington has started to get more involved in China’s internal affairs with the statements it has made in recent years. Again, in the Trump era, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went so far as to say that China would be held accountable for the Xinjiang-Uyghur issue.[5] In the Biden period, however, the Taiwan Issue began to be addressed. Because Taiwan’s situation, status and position are more different and sensitive than Xinjiang-Uyghur, Hong Kong, and other internal dynamics.
The White House administration considers that it may be the wrong policy to be too concerned with China’s internal affairs since the Trump era. Because it is very risky for Washington to follow and defend a clear policy without knowing the future of the protests in China. The US will not want to spoil its bilateral relations with China and lose the dialogue again. Therefore, it will continue to walk a “fine line.”
This sensitivity of the US in order not to spoil the relations has also found a response on the Chinese side. Beijing, which signals that it can soften the “Zero Covid Policy”, announced that it is at a new stage in controlling the epidemic with the decrease of the Omicron variant and the increase in the vaccination rate.[6] However, when the demonstrations first broke out, the Beijing administration had given the message that it would not compromise its “Zero Covid Policy.” Therefore, the prospects for the reopening of the Chinese economy were delayed until the first half of 2023. It can be said that the factor that changed China’s thinking in this process was the statement made by the White House. Because by declaring that it supports the people’s right to peaceful demonstration, Washington has shown that it will continue to interfere in China’s internal affairs.
China, on the other hand, does not want a conflict with the US in a new area or a Cold War. If domestic problems persist, the US will have more instruments at its disposal to put pressure on China. Beijing, which wants to defuse the Taiwan crisis and distract the US from this issue, can also develop strategies to distract from protests and other internal dynamics. In other words, giving up the “Zero Covid Policy”, can both relax society and reach the old growth figures again by enabling the economy to open early. However, since reducing measures will also increase deaths, the already low age of productivity may fall further, and thus the rate of economic growth may again slow down. In this respect, China is in a dilemma to give up or continue its current Covid policy.
In general, China wishes to reduce and, if possible, get rid of external pressures on internal dynamics, to put relations with the US back on track, and to stay away from crisis and conflict. This foreign policy goal causes China to reconsider its domestic policies. For the US-China relations to progress without breaking, a process seems to be working towards reducing the potential crisis areas. Beijing is taking steps in this direction. For example, China is reflectivity on Taiwan as in the past; that is, it responds to the moves of the US rather than being proactive.
The US, on the other hand, acts more proactively by focusing on crisis politics. The reason why Washington wants to keep channels of dialogue with Beijing open is its desire to advance this policy of crisis. The US in these relations aims to control China. Washington’s hegemonic stances cause China to be seen as a potential threat in the world. The bloc policy of the US also raises the risk of a potential war with China.
[1] “Austin To China’s Defense Chief: US Concerned About ‘Increasingly Dangerous Behavior’ in Indo-Pacific”, Legion, https://www.legion.org/news/257543/austin-china%E2%80%99s-defense-chief-us-concerned-about-%E2%80%98increasingly-dangerous-behavior%E2%80%99-indo, (Date of Accession: 14.12.2022).
[2] “White House Says ‘Everyone Has the Right to Peacefully Protest’ After China Covid Demonstrations Intensify”, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-china-covid-protests-rcna58952, (Date of Accession: 14.12.2022).
[3] Ibid.
[4] “White House Treads Carefully as Protests Unfold in China as US Tries To Mend Relations with Beijing”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/29/politics/white-house-china-covid-protests/index.html, (Date of Accession: 14.12.2022).
[5] “Mike Pompeo Declares China’s Treatment of Uighurs ‘Genocide’”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/mike-pompeo-china-uighur-genocide-sanctions-xinjiang, (Date of Accession: 14.12.2022).
[6] “China Signals It Could Soften Its Zero-Covid Policy, But There Are More Questions Than Answers”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/01/china/china-protests-zero-covid-position-intl-hnk-mic/index.html, (Date of Accession: 14.12.2022).
