Analysis

Energy Competition in the Black Sea: Turkey’s Expanding Fleet

Turkey is expected to conduct full-capacity deep-sea exploration in the Black Sea with six drilling ships by 2026.
With the new ships, it appears possible to achieve an internal production rate of close to 50% in line with the goal of energy independence.
With this technological capacity, Turkey is poised to build a multilateral and independent axis in regional energy diplomacy.

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Turkey is preparing to increase its hydrocarbon production capacity and geopolitical influence in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean by adding two seventh-generation deep-sea drilling ships to its energy fleet in July 2025.1 According to a statement by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, these high-tech vessels, capable of drilling up to 12,000 meters, will operate under the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) and are set to begin their first operations in early 2026. This development is seen as one of the most concrete steps toward realizing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s frequently emphasized vision of “energy independence for Turkey.”

Turkey already has four deep-sea drilling ships named Fatih, Yavuz, Kanuni, and Abdülhamid Han. Following work carried out in the Sakarya Gas Field, 710 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves have been discovered since 2020, with the first phase of production from these reserves beginning in 2023. Currently, 9.5 million cubic meters of gas are produced daily from 12 wells, and this production reaches approximately 4 million households. Turkey aims to achieve full-capacity production in this area by 2029.It is estimated that 30% of the country’s annual gas needs could be met from the Sakarya Field.

The newly purchased ships are not merely a technical investment; they are also an instrument that directly affects Turkey’s energy security, its strategy to reduce its dependence on imports, and its room for maneuver in foreign policy. The issue of energy security is not merely concerned with supply-demand balance but also with the control of energy routes and the management of the geopolitical value of energy resources. With these newly acquired vessels, Turkey now possesses a total of six drilling ships, placing it among the top four countries in the world with the most modern deep-sea energy fleet.

Turkey’s decision to divert its energy investments to the Black Sea is not only an economic choice but also a geopolitical one. The Black Sea is located at the center of both NATO-Russia tensions and Central Asia-Europe energy corridors, while Turkey is transforming itself from a mere transit country into a producer and platform provider. This transformation is also parallel to the EU’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russia. Turkey’s increased natural gas cooperation with countries such as Romania and Bulgaria is leading to the establishment of a new energy axis in the Black Sea.

At the same time, these investments are taking Turkey to a new level not only in the energy sector, but also in terms of technological competence, diplomatic activity, and regional competition. The purchase of seventh-generation ships is laying the groundwork for Turkey to establish a sphere of influence that encompasses not only its own reserves, but also potential fields in Libya, Somalia, and even the Eastern Mediterranean. All these developments are transforming Turkey’s traditional identity as an “energy importer” into that of an actor in a multidimensional energy diplomacy.

With the addition of two new drilling ships to Turkey’s energy fleet, it will be possible to drill deeper in the Black Sea; not only natural gas, but also regional dominance will be reshaped. By 2026, Turkey will be able to establish a full-fledged “energy architecture” under the Black Sea with six active drilling ships.

Over the next five years, Turkey is expected to triple its production capacity in the Black Sea, reaching a domestic production rate of nearly 50% for natural gas. This increase could reduce Turkey’s energy import bill by $15-20 billion annually, which would have positive implications for the budget balance. Additionally, Turkey’s energy diplomacy in the Balkans, the Caucasus, and Central Europe will become a stronger bargaining chip thanks to this energy supply capacity.

From a geopolitical perspective, Turkey’s independent drilling activities in the Black Sea with its own ships will grant Ankara autonomy, particularly in the energy competition between Russia and the West. Turkey shall not be bound by either the route entirely dictated by the West or the model enforced by Russia in the energy sector. On the contrary, it shall become an “energy network builder” that produces its own energy, searches for it with its own ships, and shares it with third countries.

This situation will also accelerate the internationalization of energy resources in the Black Sea. It is possible that Turkey will begin joint drilling activities with countries such as Romania and Bulgaria from 2027 onwards, and even shift its focus to new reserve areas in the east of the Black Sea via Georgia. Additionally, thanks to this technological capacity, Turkey’s more assertive position in the Eastern Mediterranean could lead to energy cooperation within the framework of its restructured relations with Egypt and Israel.

In the long term, these investments will not only be part of Turkey’s energy independence goal; they will also be a strategic turning point in terms of strengthening the country’s technological infrastructure, redefining its environmental responsibilities, and contributing to regional peace initiatives through energy-based diplomacy. High-tech investments such as deep-sea drilling ships will enable Turkey to develop its capacity not only in energy production but also in energy engineering, maritime technologies, and digital monitoring systems. This process may trigger structural transformations such as increased university-industry collaboration, the development of domestic technologies, and the institutionalization of knowledge transfer.

Moreover, we are moving into a new era in which energy diplomacy will be intertwined not only with power competition but also with green transformation and regional development. Turkey’s transformation of its hydrocarbon-based energy strategy into a hybrid model by integrating renewable energy sources in the long term will provide a critical balance on the path to achieving carbon-neutral goals. In particular, parallel investments in wind, solar, and hydrogen alongside Black Sea natural gas production could position Turkey as a model example in terms of both climate commitments and energy supply security. Thus, Turkey could establish itself as an active actor not only in emissions reduction but also in climate finance, technology sharing, and energy transition platforms in the post-COP era.

An approach that views energy not only as a resource to be consumed, but also as a driving force for peace, development, and diplomatic dialogue will make Turkey’s foreign policy vision more inclusive. In this context, Black Sea gas will not only supply Turkey’s domestic market but will also form the basis for new energy cooperation with the Balkans, the Caucasus, and Central European countries. Energy corridors, joint infrastructure projects, and technical training programs developed under Turkey’s leadership could create a new diplomatic platform for building trust with countries in the region.

An approach that views energy not only as a resource to be consumed, but also as a driving force for peace, development, and diplomatic dialogue will make Turkey’s foreign policy vision more inclusive. In this context, Black Sea gas will not only supply Turkey’s domestic market but will also form the basis for new energy cooperation with the Balkans, the Caucasus, and Central European countries. Energy corridors, joint infrastructure projects, and technical training programs developed under Turkey’s leadership could create a new diplomatic platform for building trust with countries in the region.

In conclusion, the expansion of Turkey’s drilling fleet is not only a gateway to deep-sea reserves, but also to strategic areas such as multi-layered energy diplomacy, environmental responsibility, and technology exports. This development symbolizes the beginning of a new era in which Turkey is evolving from its traditional consumer identity to a regional order-shaping identity that shapes the energy order.

  1. “Türkiye adds 2 new deep-sea drilling vessels to expand energy fleet”, AZERTAC, https://azertag.az/en/xeber/turkiye_adds_2_new_deep_sea_drilling_vessels_to_expand_energy_fleet-3664911, (Erişim Tarihi: 19.07.2025). ↩︎
Aybike VRESKALA
Aybike VRESKALA
Hacettepe University, Department of English-French Translation and Interpretation (Double Major) and Middle East Technical University, Department of International Relations (Special Student)

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