The European Parliament Elections are considered one of the fundamental pillars of the democratic structure of the European Union and were held this year between June 6 to 9, 2024. This process, which determines the 720 members of the European Parliament, sheds light on the future of citizens as well as the direction in which the European Union will operate.
In the European Parliament, members are clustered in alliances determined not by country but by political orientation. In order to form these political groups, at least 23 members and at least a quarter of the member states must be represented. There are 7 political groups in the current parliament, and they represent the broad spectrum of European politics. The two largest groups are the center-right European People’s Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats. These two groups form the strongest political alliances in the European Parliament and shape the bulk of European politics.
These two main groups are followed by the liberal Renew Europe and the Greens/European Free Alliance. The far-right groups European Conservatives and Reformists and Identity and Democracy enjoy a significant representation in the Parliament. The smallest group is known as the Left Group. There are also parties that are not affiliated to any group, such as the ruling Fidesz in Hungary.
The majority in the European Parliament is usually formed by the cooperation of center-right and left-wing parties such as the European People’s Party, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and Renew Europe. Yet, the strengthening of the far right and the weakening of center politics have the potential to change the balance in the Parliament. According to opinion polls, far-right parties have come first in countries such as Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. [1]
The European People’s Party remains the largest group in the European Parliament. It also seems that the Social Democrats will continue to be the second group. It was also predicted that the liberals would lose seats and the result came as expected[2]. It seems, however, difficult for the far right to act as a single bloc due to its internal divisions. The far-right wing is generally united around nationalist discourses such as the protection of national borders and opposition to immigration.
A shift towards the far right in Europe could have dramatic effects in many areas, from climate change to migration, trade and agriculture. The EU’s financial and military assistance to Ukraine against the Russian invasion could also be affected by this situation. The new Parliament that will emerge in the wake of the elections will also determine the structure and policies of the EU Commission. The rise of the far right may lead to serious changes in EU policies. In the environment and climate policies in particular, looser regulations and nationalist approaches in agricultural policies may emerge. The EU’s migration and asylum policies are also expected to become stricter. Before the elections, the EU Commission under von der Leyen had adopted the Asylum and Migration Agreement and narrowed the scope of the Green Deal. With the influence of the far-right in the new Parliament, it seems possible that such policies will be further hardened.
One of the decisive figures of the elections is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. All while proposing to join forces with France’s Marine Le Pen, Meloni is getting closer to the center-right European People’s Party at the same time. This makes Meloni a key figure in the elections. In France, Jordan Bardella is the new star of Marine Le Pen’s party, while in Germany, the rise of AfD is also striking.
In France, the election results caused a rather political earthquake. With winning 31.5% of the vote, the far-right National Union Party managed to more than more than double the 15.2% of the vote of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance Party. In a nationally televised statement, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for new legislative elections. This success of the National Unity Party led by Marine Le Pen means a major defeat for the government in France.
As for Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany party came second with 16.5% of the votes. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats scored their worst result ever with 14%[3]. These achievements of the AfD change the political balance in Germany and increase the difficulties that mainstream parties will face in the legislative process. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s ultra-conservative Brothers of Italy Party secured the most votes in the elections, thus strengthening Meloni’s position.[4] This demonstrates the magnitude of the electorate support for right-wing policies in Italy.
The European Parliament Elections are of great importance not only for Europe but also for global politics. The results of the US Presidential Elections set to take place in November will also affect the strategies of right-wing conservative parties in Europe. Particularly figures such as Italian Prime Minister Meloni may redefine their positions according to the political developments in the US. A possible victory of Donald Trump could reinforce the tendency to move further to the right in Europe.
The election results revealed the weaknesses of the governments in France and Germany, the core countries of Europe. Since the leadership of the European Union is usually shaped by the leadership of these two countries, such vulnerabilities have the potential to affect the future policies of the EU. Overall, the European Parliament Elections held from June 6th to 9th, 2024 have the potential to change the political balances in Europe. The strengthening of the far right and the weakening of the center politics have a profound impact on the future policies of the EU. Consequently, the election results are of great importance not only for European citizens, but also for all those interested in the future of Europe around the world.
[1] Matina Stevis-Gridneff , “In E.U. Elections, the Center Holds, but the Far Right Still Wreaks Havoc”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/09/world/europe/european-parliament-elections-far-right.html, (Date of Accesion: 10.06.2024).
[2] Jan Strupczewski, Sudip Kar-Gupta & Ingrid Melander, “Far-right advances in EU election, France calls snap national vote”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-parliament-poised-rightward-shift-after-final-voting-2024-06-09/, (Date of Accesion:10.06.2024).
[3] Christian Edwards , “Far right surges in European Parliament elections but center still holds”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe/european-parliament-far-right-surge-intl/index.html, (Date of Accesion: 10.06.2024).
[4] Lorne Cook, Raf Casert & Samuel Petrequin, “Far-right gains in the EU election deal stunning defeats to France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/eu-election-right-migration-climate-polls-vote-0fbfcb7bd987008e802d70f759fa870b, (Date of Accesion:10.06.2024).
