As the world now lives in an “Age of Unpeace”[i] or “Age of Global Crises,” with constant chaos and conflict in different regions, hopes for a collaborative world order are diminishing. Although actors emphasizing building together for the future and the shared destiny of humanity exist within the United Nations system, they often prove ineffective, particularly in the face of crises and events, and become the root cause of the problem. The unjust structure of the UN Security Council, tasked with maintaining world peace, ensures that the system remains dominated by a constant state of anarchy.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis that erupted in Europe has triggered a global political, economic, and security crisis encompassing Eurasia, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The multi-vector political, economic, and security crises in international politics demonstrate that there are no longer local or regional conflicts; instead, we must speak of global crises. Crises in different parts of the world are now creating a “domino effect,” shifting to other geopolitical basins and severely disrupting interstate relations wherever they reach.
As in the case of Ukraine, the crisis that erupted in the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026 has begun to shake both the global economy and geopolitical balances. The ongoing attacks against Iran, coordinated by Israel and the United States, have altered the balances in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria, and have put actors, especially those in the Asia-Pacific region, who are dependent on energy imports from the Strait of Hormuz, in a very difficult position. From this point on, one of the most debated issues has been in which region a new crisis might erupt after the one in Hormuz.
In this regard, while Iran’s attempts to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait through the Houthis are noteworthy, attention has also turned to what other tools the US might use to pressure Iran. In this context, while the US, which is trying to completely block Iranian oil sales by imposing an embargo in the Strait of Hormuz, keeps the option of direct military intervention on the table, it is primarily focusing on a “multi-faceted containment strategy.” Although under naval encirclement, Iran maintains its connection with the world by land. Therefore, from the perspective of US strategy, creating secondary crisis areas and zones of instability in Iran’s near and far surroundings is of vital importance. It can be argued that Iran’s biggest geopolitical supporters are Russia and China. Therefore, the US may be focusing on keeping Russia and China preoccupied with new “crises/problems” in order to weaken Iran’s economic and defense resilience.
The attack by Ukraine on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea on July 25, 2026, can also be cited as an example of these new crises. This example essentially sends a significant message that the US is closely monitoring the connections between Iran and Russia and that these connections could be targeted “when necessary.” The attack in the Caspian Sea can also be seen as an attempt to target China’s Central Corridor extending to Europe.[ii] Therefore, there is a geopolitical environment in which China’s westward corridors—northern (Russia), central (Caspian), and southern (Iran)—are threatened by various crises. Consequently, the security of the Strait of Malacca, a critical bottleneck in China’s Maritime Silk Road, may also be jeopardized in the near future.
The current geopolitical landscape currently constrained by the Caspian and Hormuz straits, may trigger new areas of crisis in the coming period. The simultaneous insecurity of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb makes the Cyprus-centered Eastern Mediterranean basin a key location for energy transit. On the other hand, the disruption of China’s land-based energy and trade corridors (Northern, Central, and Southern) due to crises may force Beijing to take radical steps to guarantee the security of the Maritime Silk Road. This situation could pave the way for increased pressure on Taiwan and an escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The potential US blockade of the Malacca Strait in response to a possible Chinese operation, particularly against Taiwan, would force China to turn to the Sunda or Lombok straits under Indonesian control; this would create a massive maritime security crisis encompassing the entire Southeast Asian region.
A unified geopolitical encirclement may emerge, where China and the Eurasian bloc’s westward and southward-facing global trade and logistics routes are simultaneously pressured by crises on the Northern Axis (Russia-Ukraine war), the Central Axis (Caspian and Caucasus), the Southern Axis (Iran, Hormuz, and the Eastern Mediterranean), and the Eastern/Pacific Axis (Malacca and Taiwan). In this conjuncture, where land and sea corridors are simultaneously destabilized, it becomes difficult for the global system to emerge from the “Age of Unpeace”; crises cease to be mere local conflicts and transform into fundamental tools for reshaping and managing global power balances.
Consequently, the “selective” application and violation of international law rules is creating a “norm erosion” not only regionally but also globally. Due to Iran’s actions, other bottleneck coastal states around the world may further increase their de facto control over strategic straits, restrict passage, or impose economic obligations. This could increase the costs of global maritime trade, leading to instability in many sectors, particularly energy supply security. While the US attempts to pressure Iran, the world may face a much more challenging situation in terms of global trade.
[i] The term is used in reference to Mark Leonard’s book “The Age of Unpeace”.
[ii] For more, see “Jeopolitik Kırılma Eşiğinde “İstanbul 2.0 Vizyonu”nun Kaçınılmazlığı ve “Genişletilmiş Karadeniz Havzası Güvenlik Kuşağı”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/jeopolitik-kirilma-esiginde-istanbul-2-0-vizyonunun-kacinilmazligi-ve-genisletilmis-karadeniz-havzasi-guvenlik-kusagi/, (Date Accessed: 31.07.2026).
