Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has visited Vietnam and Philippine when the USA has started a trade war against other states, especially to China. In the era where the USA president Donald Trump’s custom tariffs shocked the ASEAN members, Ishiba, by visiting the region, highlights that his country could be a trustable partner. It is estimated that through Japan’s official security assistance, offered to ASEAN countries, will yield to the construction of a free and open Indo-Pacific. [1]
Through this contact, Japan aims to restore trust in the ASEAN countries whose having economic difficulties. Because, China’s effectiveness in the region is increasing in terms of both economic and defense cooperation. At this point, Japan is show up as a balancing actor. Although, the USA’s high tariffs is suspended for 90 days, it already caused changes in the supply chain. As a result, it is estimated that its inevitable the ASEAN countries and China will increase economic activity. To prevent this from happening, Japan, head towards to trade, technology and financial partnerships.
Japan’s will to cooperate with the countries in the region in the context of ‘Free and Open İndo-Pacific’ is compatible with the USA’s strategy of balancing China. One of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) partners Japan and the USA, even though they aimed to act supply chain and balancing power, their way to achieve the objective are different. While Japan is aiming to establish long-term trust relationships with states via regional cooperation and infrastructure investments; the USA is aiming to establish a regional balance by competitive military and strategic engagement based on deterrence.
Veteran Researcher of RAND, Jeffrey Hornung contemplate that the custom tariffs will cause a possible disagreements and difficulties among the USA and ASEAN states.[2] These difficulties are being discussed in two ways: changing direction of supply chain and investment. Since the ASEAN countries and China have a tie in production and supply chain, the USA’s new custom tariffs will cause a disruption and breakdown of the chain. With that way production model will be forced to change or ASEAN countries will start to establish closer relations with China. Change in the production will cause a competition in investment between ASEAN countries. With this situation will decrease the trust feeling in the organization.
The USA’s high tariffs will cause a separation between the countries in the region and clash of economic strategies. This situation will weaken the common goal of the ASEAN countries such as regional solidarity, compatibility and impartiality. On the other hand, these tariffs contradict with the agreement of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that the ASEAN and China has agreed to. Because this agreement, aims to reduce custom tariffs between countries, eased investment and ensure the integrated operation of supply chains. But the USA’s high tariffs especially to China forcing ASEAN states to choose a side.
At this very point Japan assume a balancing or mediator role. At a time, Japan by presenting investment and infrastructure projects to ASEAN countries, trying to reduce countries economic ties to China, at the same time by providing security cooperation they make it possible to the countries follow multilateral balance policy between in the competition of the USA and China. Besides, Japan is being seen as trustable partner by ASEAN countries about regional security and economic stability through cooperation.
However, strategic partnerships that ASEAN countries will develop with Japan may cause China to approach these countries more cautiously or to interact more through platforms such as RCEP or the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). ASEAN countries, which adopt the principle of multilateralism, while benefiting from technology and infrastructure opportunities by getting closer to Japan, will keep the dual balancing policy in the foreground by emphasizing neutrality against sensitivities that may arise in their relations with China and stating that cooperation with the two countries is complementary.
In conclusion, due to the high US tariffs, ASEAN countries will indirectly develop their relations with China. Japan, on the other hand, stands out as a balancing actor in Southeast Asia through its policies. In this context, it offers cooperation opportunities in technology and security areas. Indeed, the US’s protectionist economic policies have pushed ASEAN countries to look for alternative ways. China is strengthening this alternative with platforms like both the BRI and RCEP.
ASEAN countries, which give importance to neutrality in the US-China competition, aim to maintain their multifaceted foreign policies with Japan’s support. Japan has adopted a soft power approach while diversifying these countries’ economically based cooperation. Therefore, while supporting ASEAN’s neutrality strategy, it also emphasizes its role as a constructive actor providing regional stability.
[1] “Japan’s role for ASEAN increasingly crucial amid U.S. tariff standoff”, Japan Today, https://japantoday.com/category/politics/focus-japan’s-role-for-asean-increasingly-crucial-amid-u.s.-tariff-standoff, (Date Accession: 03.05.2025).
[2] Ibid.
