On February 28, 2024, South Korean and United States (US) troops announced that they would begin expanded annual military exercises in response to North Korea’s increasing nuclear threats. The two countries see Pyongyang’s tests as an invasion rehearsal. In recent months, North Korea has inflamed tensions in the region with fiery rhetoric and ongoing missile tests. While it is unlikely that North Korea will launch full-scale attacks on South Korea and the United States, observers say Pyongyang may engage in provocations against South Korea, with which it still has a tense border.[1]
These exercises are taking place at a time when both countries aim to be prepared against potential attacks from North Korea. The South Korean and U.S. Militaries announced that the allies will conduct Exercise Freedom Shield, as well as a computer simulation command center training and various separate field trainings, from March 4 to 14, 2024.
South Korean General Staff Spokesperson Colonel Lee Sung-Jun stated that these exercises aim to strengthen their joint capabilities to prevent North Korea from using its nuclear weapons, and said that they will conduct 48 field exercises this spring and that this year’s exercises will include air attack, live shooting and bombing training. Lee said, “Our army is immediately, strong and ready to fight to the end in case of provocation by North Korea. At the same time, we will further strengthen our determination through the exercises that will be held soon,” he said.[2]
US Military Spokesperson Colonel Isaac L. Taylor said that the exercises of the allies were for defensive purposes and that there was solid evidence that a “high readiness rate” provided deterrence. North Korea, which did not immediately respond to the announcement of the drills, had responded to previous South Korea-US military drills with its own missile tests. As part of its efforts to expand its nuclear and missile arsenal since 2022, North Korea has sharply increased its weapons testing activities. North Korea has conducted six missile tests this year, five of which reportedly involved cruise missiles.[3]
South Korean Military Spokesperson Lee stated that the upcoming South Korea-US exercises will include detecting and shooting down North Korean cruise missiles. Analysts say that in the event of a conflict, North Korea would traditionally use cruise missiles to target American warships and American military installations in Japan. On the other hand, North Korea’s weapons tests in 2022 and 2023 were mostly focused on ballistic weapon systems..[4]
It can be said that by restarting diplomatic negotiations with a larger arsenal of weapons, North Korea is forcing the USA and South Korea to make concessions on sanctions. North Korea can be expected to step up its missile tests and other provocations this year as both the United States and South Korea are set to hold elections.
South Korea and the United States responded to North Korea’s test firings with expanded military exercises and trilateral exercises involving Japan. US and South Korean officials have warned that any nuclear attack by North Korea against them would spell the end of Pyongyang. In a telephone conversation on February 28, 2024, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin condemned North Korea’s missile tests and affirmed the importance of maintaining an extremely strong joint defense posture. The Pentagon said Austin reaffirmed the “iron-solid” U.S. expanded deterrence commitment to South Korea’s defense.[5]
First, it is unclear how the announcement of the exercises will interact with North Korea’s response. However, given that North Korea has responded to previous similar exercises with missile tests, it is likely to respond similarly this time. This could increase tensions in the region and have a destabilizing effect.
Secondly, the exercises of South Korea and the USA show how prepared they are against new threats such as North Korea’s cruise missiles. This can be interpreted as an effort to continuously strengthen the defense capabilities of the allies. But despite North Korea’s previous tests, it is unclear whether the drills will reduce North Korea’s aggression.
Thirdly, the exercises of South Korea and the USA may affect the general security dynamics in the region. The exercises can strengthen U.S. allies in the region by demonstrating U.S. engagement and commitment to South Korea. However, it could also cause North Korea to engage in further provocations and weapons tests, which could escalate tensions in the region.
As a result, the military exercises of South Korea and the USA against North Korea can also be considered as a step towards strengthening the defense capacities of the allies. However, the long-term effects of such exercises and North Korea’s response are unclear.
[1] “South Korean and US troops Will Begin Major Exercises Next Week in Response to North Korean Threats”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-us-military-drills-north-korea-d633b0e37134c12bba7b4f79650510aa, (Access Date: 29.02.2024).
[2] “America and South Korea Restart Their Big Military Drills”, The Economist, https://t.ly/JBCcd, (Access Date: 29.02.2024).
[3] “South Korean and US Troops Will Begin Major Exercises Next Week in Response to North Korean Threats”, ABC News, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-korean-us-troops-begin-major-exercises-week-107616393, (Access Date: 29.02.2024).
[4] “South Korean and US Troops Will Begin Major Exercises Next Week in Response to North Korean Threats”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-us-military-drills-north-korea-d633b0e37134c12bba7b4f79650510aa, (Access Date: 29.02.2024).
[5] “America and South Korea Restart Their Big Military Drills”, a.g.e., (Access Date: 29.02.2024).
