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Tipcat between the US and the “Others”!

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This headline describes the world which is currently out of its joints. The US, more precisely, President Donald Trump, whose leadership is swaying away is in the mood of burning Rome and the dismissal of Rex Tillerson is a clear indication of this. Trump who is unburying the hatchet, in the process of forming a war council around him.

In reality, Trump is impersonating the role assigned to him by the US deep state, just like previous instances. Therefore, the current attitude of Trump is non-surprising. The inevitable rise of China and the re-organisation of the European Union (EU) by France-Germany partnership has pushed the US to pursue a new quest and utilise different methods.

In fact, Trump has asserted that the fundamental issue of the US is its economy during his election campaign and inaugural speech. He also referred to China as an opponent of the US.

Trump pointed out that the most significant threat to US national security is the effect of China on the economy. It was later understood that Germany, was also seen as a threat as a need trade war began.

A Trade War initiated with Steel and Aluminium

Immediately after Trump announced that he would bring additional customs duties to imported steel and aluminium, many countries, especially China warned Washington of possible consequences. For instance, the Chinese Foreign Ministry warned that “global trade will suffer” if similar measures are increased and called upon the US “to act moderately regarding the use of commercial protection instruments”, while the Chinese Ministry of Commerce accused Trump of harming the international trade system.

Zhang Yesui, the spokesperson of China’s National Peoples’ Congress, took a step further and indicated that China does not seek an economic war with the US, however, if the economy is harmed, necessary actions will be taken.

Such revulsions were not limited to China. Germany, the EU, Australia, Canada, Brazil and Mexico voiced their concerns too. The German Foreign Minister, Sigmar Gabriel, indicated that German and European producers “did not cause unfair competition by lowering prices” and called upon Donald Trump to “reconsider” his decision. Meanwhile, Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the EU Commission stated that such move would put thousands of European workers at risk.

The repercussion of Gabriel and Juncker were not limited to the statements mentioned above. Gabriel, who invited Trump to contemplation, asserted that if the US insists on proceeding with the plan, its “mistake will not be accepted” and called on the EU to respond, “with determination”. Juncker’s statement of “We will not sit idle while our industry endures unfair measures. The EU will consider what is necessary to defend its interests” are a direct addition to Gabriel’s comments.

However, the warnings were hardly taken into consideration by Trump who on March 9th signed a decree that pegged a 25 percent and 10 percent customs tariff on imported steel and aluminium respectively. With duties in place, attention has once against turned towards China and the EU.

The US Needs a Grandeur War!

The current trade war has been ongoing for a quite long time. To put it more concretely, the US will continue to engage China by encircling and sabotaging its projects with terror. Developments in Myanmar, Kashmir, East Turkestan and Afghanistan will come to prominence in the forthcoming days.

From US viewpoint this is the final opportunity, and this is why it is necessitating a war with China as it struggles to in withholding global hegemony. For instance, the UK, which was appraised as the “leader of the EU” during the Cold War era, has eventually pulled away from this duty and is currently trying to establish its scheme. Hence, Washington’s EU policy is nothing but a lame duck and France and Germany, the central pillars of the EU could push the US into political-security severe crisis, which the White House is eventually aware.

The US is conscious of the bitter consequences that could occur in the Pacific if it yields in Europe. On the other hand, China and Russia are cognisant of US’s Achilles heel. While China is contradicting the EU especially the UK through its One Road One Belt Initiative, Russia has put forth it’s crude power against the US.

Therefore, the US could pursue a war to keep possession of Europe as it is impossible to win the battle of the Pacific without EU’s support. Moreover, once the “One Road Project” is completed, US-based maritime power will be dealt a great blow, which in return could lead to the US becoming the “unwanted” entity around the globe.

In short, US policy after September 11 is facing severe crises and impediments, and Washington is aware that this scheme cannot continue further. The only way to overcome the impasse is a grandeur war. This is also the underlying reason for the policy change in Syria and Trump is willing to conclude Obama’s unfinished business.

In conclusion, the US deep-state is once again coming up with new schemes that will freshly alter the world order.

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.