One of the most remarkable developments in the Indian and Western Pacific is Japan’s growing strength in the field of defence and security and it’s moving away from its pacifist structure to a proactive policy. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently stated that they will increase the share of defence expenditures in the budget to 2% in the next five years.[1] The country had allocated budgets ranging from 0.9% to 1.1% for the defence item since the Second World War. The budget of 40.4 billion dollars to be allocated to defence for 2023 represents the highest amount to date.
Raising defence spending to 2% is like the limits set by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Therefore, it can be argued that the pressures of the United States of America (USA) were also effective in Japan’s following a more proactive policy in the field of defence. The fact that the 2% target will be reached in 2027 may be a sign that a new NATO will be established on this date. In other words, the USA and its allies in the Indo-Pacific may consider forming a defence alliance by this date, bringing defence spending to at least the level of NATO countries within five years. Japanese officials argue that defence spending should increase due to the growing “Chinese threat.”[2]
It can be argued that this fear was artificially created by the USA so that allied states such as Japan and Australia could give more security-defence support. When you position China as the “other/rival/enemy,” as a natural consequence of this, states will take measures to ensure their security. Whether Beijing is a real threat militarily is open to debate. However, it is known that there is a goal of reunification with Taiwan. The Pentagon argues that this will not happen peacefully, but through military force, and urges Japan and other regional states to prepare for it.
Tokyo says Beijing should refrain from using force to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.[3] In other words, Japan is concerned that the status quo regarding Taiwan will be changed unilaterally by Beijing. This is like the fears carried by the USA. The policies followed by Japan and the USA due to their common security interests are also similar. It is estimated that the National Security and Defense Strategy Document to be published by Japan at the end of the year will bear great similarities with the one published by the White House.
Possibly, Japan will devote a large place to Taiwan in its new national security strategy and will focus on the “Chinese threat.” Increasing its defence budget, citing these security concerns, Tokyo may begin to prepare a war cabinet and budget in the coming years. Because the Pentagon’s warnings are in this direction: It is stated that in the third term of Cinping, he included experienced people related to Taiwan in his party cadres, and therefore it may go for unification through military force.[4] In other words, the USA wants Japan to focus on defence by targeting China. Therefore, the Tokyo Government is moving away from its pacifist structure in preparation for the war that may arise over Taiwan.
In recent years, cooperation-dialogue mechanisms realized by Japan in the Indo-Pacific in bilateral and tripartite formats have also gained momentum. For example, Japan is to hold talks with Australia, India, and the USA in a 2+2 format, in which the defence and foreign ministers participate. In addition, in triple format “Japan-USA-South Korea,” “Japan-India-Italy,” “Japan-England-Australia,” “Japan-USA-India,” “Japan-Australia-India” and “Japan-Australia-USA” meetings are also held. Soon, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong will visit Tokyo to hold talks in a 2+2 format.[5] Australia and Japan revised their security agreements in October 2022. Today, it is discussed to take this cooperation one step further and Japan’s participation in AUKUS. Again, in this process, the USA decided to increase the number of its military units in Australia, citing the increasing “Chinese threat.” According to the information confirmed by the Pentagon; Australia will invite Tokyo to join these associations at the 2+2 format talks in Japan.[6] In other words, the USA and Australia invite Japan to join their alliance. The UK’s position is not yet clear.
There is talk of the possibility of AUKUS turning into JAUKUS with the participation of Japan. But the purpose of the dialogue at AUKUS is to support Australia in the procurement and development of nuclear submarines and is considered a defence-security alliance. In this respect, it differs from other bilateral, triple, and quadruple security dialogues conducted to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open. In other words, to make a sound assessment of Japan’s participation in AUKUS, it should be looked at how much Tokyo needs this military-technical cooperation. It is also unclear whether the UK and the US will offer this support to Japan. In previous statements, such a possibility was denied by all parties. In AUKUS, it is more likely that the UK shares nuclear submarine technology. In other words, it is estimated that London will make the main and final decision on Japan’s participation in the alliance.
The Chinese claim that Japan and Australia are jeopardizing their interests and independence for the sake of “American hegemony.”[7] In other words, Beijing states that Tokyo has been dragged into crises by Washington and is a victim of the policy of the bloc. To prevent this political polarization and re-establish bilateral relations, the leaders of China and Japan met in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, in November 2022 and signed a joint five-point memorandum of understanding.[8] Accordingly, the two countries do not threaten each other; they would see them as partners and turn to cooperation. Thus, a stable and constructive Sino-Japanese relationship would be established. However, less than a month after this agreement, Tokyo continued to take new decisions supporting Washington’s policies.
In short, Tokyo’s increasing its defence budget, allocating a large place to Taiwan in its national security strategy, continuing to criticize China’s unilateral moves, and most importantly, joining regional military alliances such as AUKUS with the support of the USA and Australia, China-Japan can lead to the irreversible deterioration of their relationship.
As a result, although Japan reaffirmed its commitment to the “One China Principle” in the memorandum signed with China in November 2022, it continues to take steps and make statements to support Taiwan’s independence.[9] Japan’s move towards a proactive policy may cause history to repeat itself.
[1] “Japan Set to Hike Defense Budget Amid Ongoing Tension in Region”, Anadolu Agency, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/japan-set-to-hike-defense-budget-amid-ongoing-tension-in-region/2751777, (Date of Accession: 12.12.2022).
[2] “Japan Lawmaker İn Taiwan Says China Threat Needs More Military Spending”, The Asia Today, https://theasiatoday.org/news/east-asia/japan-lawmaker-in-taiwan-says-china-threat-needs-more-military-spending/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost, (Date of Accession: 12.12.2022).
[3] Ibid.
[4] U.S. Department of Defense, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”, S3, https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23321290/2022-military-and-security-developments-involving-the-peoples-republic-of-china.pdf, (Date of Accession: 12.12.2022).
[5] “Australia Extends Military Invitation to Japan”, ABC, https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/australia-extends-military-invitation-to-japan/101749738, (Date of Accession: 12.12.2022).
[6] “Australia Warned Not to Become US’ ‘Spearhead’, As ‘2+2’ Meeting Goes Beyond Hyping ‘China Threats’”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281371.shtml, (Date of Accession: 12.12.2022).
[7] Ibid.
[8] “China and Japan Reach a Five-point Consensus on Stabilizing and Developing Bilateral Relations”, FMPRC, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202211/t20221118_10977637.html, (Date of Accession: 12.12.2022).
[9] “Japan Could ‘Recognize Taiwan as Country’ One Day”, Taipei Times, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2022/12/09/2003790399, (Date of Accession: 12.12.2022).
