On 10th September 2025, the Polish Armed Forces announced that they had shot down at least three Russian drones over Warsaw, bringing the number of violations to 21, and that the wreckage of the downed drones had been found.[i]Following this development, Poland called for an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and numerous NATO member countries issued statements condemning Russia’s actions.[ii] While NATO continues to investigate whether Russia’s action was intentional, US President Donald Trump shared the view that this incident was “a mistake” and pointed out that conditions in the Ukraine War are changing rapidly, saying, “Here we go!”.[iii] German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul emphasized that support for Poland would be increased, stating, “Russia has caused a dangerous escalation with this behavior”.[iv] After this incident, European countries, including the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Germany, began to announce military support for Poland.
A week before the events in Poland, discussions had intensified regarding NATO member countries sending troops to Ukraine or providing security guarantees to Ukraine. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if NATO provided such support, foreign troops in Ukraine would become “legitimate targets”.[v] While all these developments were unfolding, Trump’s failed attempts to bring Putin and Zelensky together within the framework of peace negotiations were also seen as a “major disappointment” in Europe. Indeed, while Europe wants the US to provide more military support to Ukraine and exert more pressure on Russia, Trump has focused on Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and a possible Putin-Zelensky summit. Moreover, Trump’s failure in this regard has led Europe to take new initiatives regarding Ukraine, and a new package of sanctions against Russia has been approved. Discussions have also accelerated regarding sending military units, trainers, or a post-war peacekeeping force to Ukraine, as strongly advocated by French President Emmanuel Macron. In brief, NATO’s European members have clearly focused on increasing their support for Ukraine. Moreover, this support is spreading across Eastern Europe and the Baltics, particularly following Poland’s downing of a Russian drone.
The failure to achieve concrete results from the talks between Trump and Putin, including the Alaska Summit, and Trump’s failure to draw Putin into peace negotiations have had a significant impact on these developments. This can be interpreted as an “open failure” or as a new US strategy regarding the security of Russia, Ukraine, or Europe. In this context, it is unclear whether Trump’s plan or “American Grand Strategy” favors the continuation of the war in Ukraine. Similarly, it is crucial to reconsider the strategies of the UK and the US regarding the future of the Ukraine War. Since taking office, Trump has focused on persuading Putin to engage in peace negotiations with Ukraine and, having failed to do so, indirectly warned Putin, saying, “You’ll see what happens!”.[vi] Trump’s warnings may be related to providing security guarantees to Ukraine or sending troops, as well as accelerating NATO’s deployment process in Eastern Europe.
If we consider the perspective linking the escalation process to Russia, the following points can be made: Putin perceives that Trump is seeking a new strategy or retaliation regarding the peace negotiations. Following discussions on providing security guarantees to Ukraine, Putin is acting on the belief that the US and European powers will deepen the war in Ukraine. Therefore, Russia may have wanted to take certain initiatives that could lead to an escalation of tension on its Eastern European border. The reciprocal escalation race is causing the Ukraine War to prolong and expectations regarding peace negotiations to be in vain.
On the one hand, NATO is showing a tendency to increase its military presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltics; on the other hand, Russia may engage in dangerous initiatives that could spread its war in Ukraine to a wider area. The failure of Trump’s attempts to initiate peace negotiations and the resulting decline in hopes for a Putin-Zelensky summit are leading to a new escalation in the Ukraine issue. This escalation has begun to turn into NATO-Russia tension. Both the US and the UK may be trying to show Russia the “NATO threat” as a way to end the Ukraine War. This is because NATO’s concrete presence in Ukraine (security guarantees or sending troops) means “clearly crossing” the lines that Russia has defended for decades. From Russia’s perspective, NATO expansion signals a return to pre-war conditions in Ukraine. This means that the justifications for Russia’s war in Ukraine have not disappeared and may even continue to grow. While Moscow wants to prevent NATO expansion, recent developments have forced it to face this reality.
As long as Putin avoids engaging in peace negotiations, the US and the UK will continue to make bold moves to force Moscow into peace. Putin may have missed a potential opportunity for a peace agreement, perhaps without realizing it. NATO’s recent moves suggest that Russia may have missed this opportunity. Aware of this reality, Russia has announced that negotiations have been suspended.[vii] The current situation indicates that NATO-Russia tensions could escalate to a higher level. At this point, the need for NATO member countries such as Türkiye, which act in a “moderate” and “balanced” manner, is greater than ever.
[i] “Polonya, Rusya’nın yaptığı insansız hava aracı ihlalinin ardından BM Güvenlik Konseyi’ni toplantıya çağırdı”, Euronews, https://tr.euronews.com/2025/09/11/polonya-rusyanin-yaptigi-insansiz-hava-araci-ihlalinin-ardindan-bm-guvenlik-konseyini-topl, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] “Poland says Russia’s drone incursion ‘wasn’t a mistake’ after Trump’s speculation – Europe live”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/sep/12/poland-russia-drones-ukraine-war-latest-news-europe-live, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[iv] “Polonya: Hava sahamızı ihlal eden bazı Rus insansız hava araçlarını düşürdük”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/polonya-hava-sahamizi-ihlal-eden-bazi-rus-insansiz-hava-araclarini-dusurduk/3683287, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[v] “Foreign troops in Ukraine would be ‘legitimate targets’ for Russia, Vladimir Putin warns”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/b41ef3ef-1837-4de2-9e0d-ab6904c1cd50, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[vi] “Trump Putin’i açık açık tehdit etti! ‘Neler olacağını göreceksiniz’”, Milliyet, https://www.milliyet.com.tr/dunya/trump-putini-acik-acik-tehdit-etti-neler-olacagini-goreceksiniz-7439008, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[vii] “Son dakika…Kremlin’den flaş açıklama: Rusya-Ukrayna barış müzakereleri durduruldu!”, Milliyet, https://www.milliyet.com.tr/dunya/son-dakika-rusya-ukrayna-baris-muzakereleri-durduruldu-7444308, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
