According to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will undertake an official visit to China from June 4 to 8, 2024, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.[1] This visit is significant in the context of Pakistan’s efforts to preserve strategic autonomy amidst escalating competition between the United States and China, as well as the increasing importance of bilateral relations.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan has characterized the visit as a manifestation of the “iron-clad Pakistan-China friendship,” marked by frequent high-level exchanges and dialogues.[2] The parties have articulated their commitment to further enhancing strategic cooperation under all conditions. Within this framework, they aim to modernize the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and increase trade and investment volumes. Furthermore, they plan to expand collaboration in the areas of security, defense, energy, space, science and technology, and education. Promoting cultural cooperation and people-to-people exchanges will also be key topics of discussion, with these initiatives anticipated to shape the future direction of Pakistan-China relations.[3]
During this visit, the official launch of the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is expected. While the first phase of the project focused on energy, transportation, and industrial cooperation, the new phase will expand into areas such as agriculture and enhancement of living standards.[4]
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), connecting Gwadar Port in Pakistan’s Balochistan province to Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, has faced criticism from India due to its passage through the disputed Kashmir region. On the other hand, Pakistan plays a pivotal role in addressing China’s growing security concerns in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean. Accordingly, the relationship with Pakistan holds vital significance for China.
China views Pakistan as a strategic counterbalance to India along the route extending to the Indian Ocean. In this context, China has made substantial investments in the development of Pakistan’s strategically significant Gwadar Port, which has the potential to become China’s second naval base in the Indian Ocean, following Djibouti.[5] China’s support for Pakistan in maritime modernization projects elevates China to the status of a strategic partner for Pakistan.
In addition to serving as a strategic counterbalance to India, Pakistan holds significant geopolitical importance for China’s energy security. China’s energy security depends on the Persian Gulf, which includes major oil suppliers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia.[6] Thus, maintaining a presence in Pakistan is critical for China to ensure a secure supply chain in this region. The increasing uncertainties in energy markets, driven by crises such as the Russia-Ukraine War, are prompting China, which prioritizes economic development, to enhance its energy security measures.
Despite doubts about Pakistan’s ability to guarantee the security of Chinese projects and citizens, as evidenced by recent attacks on Chinese personnel in Pakistan, China aims to enhance strategic cooperation with Pakistan and, by continuously supporting Pakistan amidst internal turmoil, seeks to demonstrate to other countries in the region that Beijing is a reliable power.
The relationship with China is also of critical importance for Pakistan. Pakistan and China have a lasting partnership, being “all-weather” allies. On May 24, 2024, while presiding over a meeting with representatives of Chinese companies, Shahbaz Sharif stated that Pakistan seeks to benefit from China’s expertise to promote its information technology sector and boost exports.[7] Additionally, he emphasized that Pakistan is an agricultural country and aims to utilize China’s modern technologies in this sector.[8] Sharif invited Chinese companies to invest in Pakistan’s electricity, hybrid automotive, and other sectors.[9] In this context, relations with China are of great importance for Pakistan to achieve its economic development goals and modernize strategic sectors.
In response to the increasing concerns and criticisms from the United States regarding the CPEC, Pakistan aims to maintain its strategic autonomy and remain neutral in the US-China rivalry. In this context, newly re-elected Prime Minister Sharif’s commitment in his inaugural parliamentary speech, stating that “Pakistan will not align unilaterally with either the United States or China amid ongoing tensions,” serves as a significant signal to both nations.
Relations with the United States are as critically important for Pakistan as those with China. Considering the United States’ influence in institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, which can affect Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic interests, Pakistan recognizes the importance of maintaining positive relations with the United States.
While assistance from the United States is vital for securing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan also requires urgent financial support from China to stabilize its challenging economic conditions. Indeed, during a period when negotiations with the International Monetary Fund were progressing slowly, China stepped in by providing a 1 billion dollars loan.[10] Along with this, while the United States has reduced its military and economic assistance to Pakistan and deepened its strategic cooperation with India, China has pledged to increase its military and economic collaboration with Pakistan.
In addition to economic support, Pakistan is in great need of China’s military assistance to meet its increasing defense needs. At a time when the strategic partnership between India and the US is expanding, Pakistan is particularly planning to further strengthen its relations with China, especially in the defense and security domains. It is well known that the US has formed regional coalitions such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes Pakistan’s rival India, to counterbalance China. Pakistan is concerned about the regional strategic balance in South Asia being disrupted by the US arming India through these coalitions. In this context, Pakistan remains determined to enhance its relationship with China despite criticism from the US.
During the period of 2018-2022, China exported more than half of its arms and defense technology to Pakistan.[11] Additionally, the two countries conduct naval exercises focused on enhancing information sharing, joint patrols, and interoperability in the Indian Ocean. This underscores the importance of military diplomacy in China-Pakistan relations.
Pakistan’s inclination towards a neutral stance amidst the competition between the US and China, while continuing strategic cooperation with China in military and economic realms, is understandable. Notably, the US remains Pakistan’s primary export market. While exports to the US, European Union, United Kingdom, and Canada collectively comprise 55% of Pakistan’s total exports, exports to China represent only 11%.[12] In general, Pakistan maintains a trade surplus of 5.4 billion dollars in its trade with the US and Western countries, whereas it has a trade deficit exceeding 15 billion dollars in its trade with China.[13] Hence, despite substantial Chinese investments, maintaining positive relations with the US is crucial for Pakistan due to trade and economic reasons.
In conclusion, Pakistan endeavors to maintain its strategic autonomy amidst competition between the US and China, striving to balance its relations with both major powers. While its military and economic cooperation with China deepens, its trade relations with the US also hold critical importance. This balancing act is necessary for Pakistan to safeguard its strategic interests both regionally and globally. In this context, Shahbaz Sharif’s visit to China underscores Pakistan’s determination to remain neutral in the competition between major powers and continue cooperation with both China and the US.
[1] “Curtain Raiser: Prime Minister’s Visit to China”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Pakistan, https://mofa.gov.pk/press-releases/prime-ministers-visit-to-china, (Date of Access: 31.05.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] “Pakistani PM hails China as key partner in country’s economic development”, Xinhua, https://english.news.cn/20240529/d3d1ec5891ad447f87102dc12a38eb13/c.html, (Date of Access: 31.05.2024).
[5] “The China-Pakistan Axis and Indian Ocean Geopolitics”, Geopolitical Monitor, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-china-pakistan-axis-and-indian-ocean-geopolitics/, (Date of Access: 31.05.2024).
[6] Ibid.
[7] “Pakistan PM Sharif to visit China next month for formal launch of second phase of CPEC”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-pm-sharif-to-visit-china-next-month-for-formal-launch-of-second-phase-of-cpec/article68215407.ece, (Date of Access: 31.05.2024).
[8] Ibid.
[9] Ibid.
[10] “Pakistan receives $1 billion from China”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-receives-1-billion-from-china/article66979257.ece, (Date of Access: 31.05.2024).
[11] “What Pakistan’s political changes mean for China, the US and India”, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3253872/what-pakistans-political-changes-mean-china-us-and-india, (Date of Access: 31.05.2024).
[12] “China or the US: Pakistan’s Choice”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2023/07/china-or-the-us-pakistans-choice/, (Date of Access: 31.05.2024).
[13] Ibid.
