The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Ankara Summit, held on July 7-8, 2026, has taken its place on the stage of international relations as a critical turning point where the Alliance restructured its Euro-Atlantic security architecture and updated its strategic deterrence against multidimensional global threats. The preparations prior to the summit, the declarations published during it, and the strategic decisions taken subsequently have not only fortified the internal dynamics of the Alliance and the long-term vision of the West; they have also created an entirely new diplomatic and geopolitical equation in the South Caucasus subsystem, where global power competition is most intensely experienced.
In this turbulent period when the global security architecture is being reshaped, the autonomous and balancing role assumed by the host country, Türkiye, as a regional center of gravity, alongside Ukraine’s defense industry-oriented asymmetric moves, directly impacts the distribution of power in the Caucasus. In this regard; Azerbaijan’s elevation to the status of a reliable and strategic partner in the eyes of the Alliance through its successfully conducted multidimensional balancing policy, the conspicuous diplomatic isolation and axis shift of Georgia, traditionally considered the West’s “outpost” in the region, and the collision of Armenia’s efforts towards Western integration with the geopolitical reflexes of Russia and Iran, once again demonstrate that the South Caucasus has transformed into a hybrid strategic chessboard beyond its traditional borders.
The NATO Ankara Summit Declaration, published on July 8, 2026, forms a united front against Russia’s long-term threat to the Euro-Atlantic region and terrorism, while reaffirming the Alliance’s collective defense commitment under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty with unshakeable resolve. While the document draws attention to the rapid increase in defense investments by European allies and Canada, expanding their responsibilities within the Alliance alongside the USA; it emphasizes that NATO’s deterrence capacity has been modernized with a new procurement initiative exceeding $50 billion, encompassing advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), unmanned systems, and integrated air defense. As the long-term financial assistance of the European Union (EU) is secured along with the 70 billion euros of sustainable military support provided for the year 2026 for Ukraine’s struggle for independence; the adaptation against hybrid threats, the clear warning regarding Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, and the gratitude expressed for the hospitality of the host, Türkiye, holistically reveal the Alliance’s 360-degree vision for regional and global security.[i]
The aforementioned declaration has simultaneously consolidated the Alliance’s determination for collective defense and deterrence by positioning Russia as the greatest long-term threat to the Euro-Atlantic region; while the announced military aid and procurement initiatives have clearly demonstrated that the West is preparing for a protracted strategic competition. This summit, which cemented the host country Türkiye’s central role in logistics, energy security, and regional diplomacy; although it did not bring direct new security guarantees to the South Caucasus countries (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan), presented a long-term framework that will profoundly affect the power balances and diplomatic equations in the region through Black Sea security, combating hybrid threats, and defense industry collaborations.[ii]
This structural transformation and long-term strategic preparation in the Alliance’s deterrence capacity have also directly accelerated the bilateral relations of regional actors. In this context, the United Kingdom and Türkiye signed a comprehensive defense and security partnership agreement within the scope of the NATO Summit held in Ankara, envisioning the deepening of cooperation in the fields of cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and the defense industry. This document will further solidify the existing strategic ties of the two allies, which gained momentum with Türkiye’s procurement of 20 Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets. This critical step, taken at a time when the USA, under the Donald Trump administration, is reviewing its long-term security commitments to Europe, demonstrates that Türkiye is increasingly positioned as an indispensable strategic power by the UK and other European allies due to both its growing role in regional security and its influence over US foreign policy.[iii]
Ukraine, one of the primary beneficiaries and simultaneously one of the dynamos of this expanding security architecture, is also striving to maximize the opportunities presented by the summit. In his speech at the Defense Industry Forum organized on the margins of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy strongly reiterated his country’s demand for NATO membership, highlighting a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) interception success rate exceeding 90 percent and effective long-range airstrikes reaching as far as the Russian city of Omsk. Proposing a “UAV Agreement,” which involves the supply of Ukrainian-produced unmanned aerial vehicles to Azerbaijan and Gulf countries in addition to EU and NATO allies, Zelenskyy emphasized that Russia’s only major advantage in the current situation is ballistic missiles. Requesting assistance from the allies primarily regarding air defense missiles, the Ukrainian leader stated that if this support is provided, his country could meet the remaining needs of the war with its own defense industry.[iv] Ukraine’s desire to transition from being a passive recipient of Western aid to a position where it can export military technology, particularly through unmanned systems, to actors like Azerbaijan and the Gulf, indicates that the industrial dimension of the war is globalizing.
Ukraine’s defense industry-oriented initiative and NATO’s cross-border vision are creating a new geopolitical equation and an asymmetric polarization in the South Caucasus, the key extension of the Alliance’s eastern flank. Within the scope of the summit preparations, Ambassador Kevin Hamilton, the NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, met with high-level state officials and security experts during his first official visit to Azerbaijan on June 25-26, 2026, discussing regional stability, the development of NATO-Azerbaijan relations, and the preparations for the upcoming Ankara Summit. During the meetings, Hamilton stated that he appreciated Azerbaijan’s contributions as a reliable partner to NATO operations, Europe’s energy security, and Ukraine, as well as its constructive stance in the ongoing peace process with Armenia. As a result of the contacts, it was emphasized that the existing strong cooperation covering critical areas such as military interoperability and combating hybrid threats will be carried to a much more institutional and profound dimension with the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme currently being developed.[v]
Hamilton’s meetings with Vice President Hikmet Hajiyev and Deputy Ministers of Foreign Affairs Araz Azimov and Elnur Mammadov during this visit prove that bilateral relations and regional security issues are being addressed within a high-level institutional framework. While Hamilton described Azerbaijan as a reliable partner in the South Caucasus, which has strategic importance for the Alliance; he once again underlined Baku’s valuable contributions to the Alliance, energy supply, and Ukraine. While the constructive approach exhibited in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process was appreciated; it was declared that practical cooperation will become even stronger in the name of regional stability with the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme, which has reached its final stage.[vi] Azerbaijan’s ability to conduct such an advanced Individually Tailored Partnership Programme with NATO without provoking regional powers like Russia and Iran can be evaluated as a successful outcome of Baku’s multidimensional balancing policy.
However, Euro-Atlantic integration in the South Caucasus does not follow a uniform course; in contrast to Azerbaijan’s institutionalizing and deepening partnership, Georgia has settled right at the center of debates on diplomatic exclusion and axis shifting. Georgia’s non-invitation to the NATO Summit held in Ankara ignited the fuse of alienation and international isolation debates in the country. Officials of the ruling Georgian Dream Party (GDP) rejected the allegations of isolation by emphasizing that Tbilisi holds the position of a “strategic partner” in the eyes of NATO, reflecting a cautious and rational foreign policy, rather than a “member state” status; and argued that the current meeting formats at the summit did not align with past participation practices.
Concurrently with this diplomatic argumentation, it was announced that the Georgian Minister of Foreign Affairs would participate in a separate side event in Ankara within the scope of the Munich Security Conference, independently of NATO’s official decision-making processes. Conversely, the opposition and political analysts interpret the absence of the former strategic partner Georgia from the program while countries like Qatar, the UAE, and Ukraine were at the table as Tbilisi’s complete loss of the West’s trust. While experts emphasize that the country is perceived as an “unreliable and toxic” state that could leak information to Russia, President Mikheil Kavelashvili’s visit to Tehran during the same period to attend the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has further crystallized Georgia’s stance of maintaining its balance and regional posture without regard to East-West or any international security actors.[vii] The Association of Georgian Diplomats also reacted harshly to this picture, characterizing the situation as a new step taken in the country’s self-isolation process. Stating that no Georgian representative was present at any official meeting within the scope of the summit and that the subject of Georgia was not included in the official agenda; the Association emphasized that Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili’s attendance at a side event titled “Allies in Ankara” organized by a think tank in Ankara does not change the fact that Georgia remained completely outside the official political processes and decision-making formats at the summit.[viii]
In light of the current regional dynamics and the geopolitical climate created by the NATO Ankara Summit, despite the asymmetric power distribution and polarization tendencies in the South Caucasus, it is predicted as highly probable that the existing geopolitical balance will be maintained and the status quo will be preserved through the strategic maneuvers of regional and global actors in the forthcoming period. On the other hand, it is expected that the Baku administration will continue to use its key role in energy supply security and the Middle Corridor project as pragmatic diplomatic leverage, and will continue its institutional ties with NATO by fortifying its multidimensional balancing policy, taking into account national interests and regional actors. Correspondingly, it is assessed that Georgia, which is gradually moving away from the normative framework of the West and approaching the orbit of regional hegemons, will turn to purely interest-based relations by instrumentalizing its status as a strategic transit hub; and this axis shift will significantly restrict the West’s capacity for influence and impact in the Caucasus.
Considering this pragmatic approach of Georgia, which prioritizes its national interests and centers on regional dynamics, and Russia’s reflexes aimed at preserving the current status quo in the geopolitics of the Caucasus; it seems inevitable that Armenia, attempting to integrate into the Euro-Atlantic architecture, will face deep geo-economic and logistical bottlenecks, and it is anticipated that the Yerevan administration’s demands from the West will focus on increasing its economic resilience and expanding the capacity of civilian observation missions rather than conventional security guarantees. At the center of all these complex geopolitical fault lines, it is evaluated that Türkiye, by proactively utilizing the autonomous and diplomatic center of gravity position it cemented at the Ankara Summit, will on the one hand strive to remain an indispensable anchor for NATO’s deterrence strategies on the Black Sea-Caucasus line, and on the other hand assume the role of the sole balancing actor that minimizes potential conflict risks by maintaining the ground of competitive cooperation it conducts with Russia and Iran against the interventions of extra-regional actors.
[i] “The Ankara Summit Declaration”, NATO, https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
[ii] “Ankara Summit Declaration Signals Stronger NATO Posture with Implications for Caucasus and European Security”, Financial, https://finchannel.com/ankara-summit-declaration-signals-stronger-nato-posture-with-implications-for-caucasus-and-european-security/132446/opinion/2026/07/, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
[iii] “UK, Türkiye Set to Sign Defense and Security Partnership at NATO Summit”, The Caspian Post, https://caspianpost.com/regions/uk-turkiye-set-to-sign-defense-and-security-partnership-at-nato-summit, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
[iv] “Zelenskyy calls for Ukraine’s NATO membership in Ankara”, ArmenPress, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1254966, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
[v] “NATO Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia visits Azerbaijan”, NATO, https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2026/06/26/nato-special-representative-for-the-caucasus-and-central-asia-visits-azerbaijan, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
[vi] “NATO envoy says Azerbaijan reliable partner in South Caucasus”, Caliber, https://caliber.az/en/post/nato-envoy-says-azerbaijan-is-reliable-nato-partner-in-south-caucasus, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
[vii] Peter Barabas, “Georgia left off NATO summit partner list as critics decry isolation”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/10/georgia-left-off-nato-summit-partner-list-as-critics-decry-isolation, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
[viii] “Diplomats: NATO Summit in Ankara — Another Step into Self-Isolation for Georgia”, SOVA, https://sovanews.tv/en/2026/07/07/diplomats-nato-summit-in-ankara-another-step-into-self-isolation-for-georgia/, (Access Date: 21.07.2026).
