On August 2, 2022, Speaker of the United States (USA) House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi paid a visit to Taiwan. After this visit, China started to follow a very strict and proactive Taiwan policy and many drills were held around the island. This has increased the tension in the Asia-Pacific region to a high level. Due to the danger that Beijing has begun to increase, the USA and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) also made statements of support to Taiwan. Therefore, the relations established by the West with Taiwan gained momentum.
All these developments have served Taiwan’s interests. Because, after the visit, many Western state administrators continued to go to Taiwan and make statements of support to the island. At the same time, Taiwan’s trade and military relations with the West, and especially with the United States, have advanced. As a matter of fact, on October 3, 2022, the USA approved the decision to sell weapons worth 1.1 billion dollars to Taiwan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the agreement was “necessary for Taiwan’s security” and urged Beijing to stop its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan.[1]
It can be said that the current conjuncture and China’s aggressive attitude towards the island create an advantage for Taiwan. As a matter of fact, as Beijing’s pressure on Taipei increases, the relations developed by the West with Taipei gain momentum. Because we can say that there is a win-win relationship. The Western alliance uses Taiwan in its policy of suppression and containment of China. This returns to Taiwan in terms of economic interests and security support. Moreover, it is possible that this situation will open a door to Taiwan in terms of official recognition status in the future.
In this context, the issue of how Taiwan protects its national security and interests in the current conjuncture and how it can provide these with internal resources is very important in terms of bringing Taipei’s geopolitical and geostrategic interests to the highest level. At this point, Retired Rear Admiral Kung Chia-cheng, Former Head of Taiwan National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, stated that Taiwan has stealth supersonic missiles that could hit Beijing, change the military balance in the Taiwan Strait, and potentially deter a future Chinese invasion.[2] This statement can be read in two different ways.
First of all, there are claims that the ultimate goal of Chinese President Xi Jinping is to go down in history as the president who unified China and Taiwan. Therefore, it can be expected that China will increase its pressure on Taiwan in the future. This increases Taiwan’s security concerns and naturally Taiwan increases its defense and military power.
On the other hand, it is unclear whether the West, the USA and NATO will give serious support to Taiwan in a possible hot conflict. At this point, considering that the Ukraine War is still going on, it can be predicted that the West will not want a new conflict. This leads Taiwan to strive to become a self-sufficient state. As a matter of fact, considering the prediction that China’s junction points with Taiwan will increase, it can be stated that this is a need for Taiwan.
Another important issue that needs to be evaluated in this context is what message Taiwan wants to convey through those statements. Because both the West’s moves over Taiwan and Taiwan’s proactive policies against China make the Beijing administration more oppressive on Taiwan. As the pressure of China increases, both the anti-Chinese activities of the West in the region and its relations with Taiwan are developing. It can be thought that Taipei is aiming for this with those explanations. Therefore, the island administration may be aiming to make Beijing more aggressive by using threatening rhetoric against China, and to deepen the West’s anti-Chinese activities and relations with itself.
As a result, Taiwan has made a serious military threat against China through its emphasis on concealed weapons. Beyond whether Taiwan actually has the military capacity to implement the threat in question, it is much more important to conduct a strategic analysis of the reasons for the discourse. As a matter of fact, in the context of the two issues evaluated here, firstly, Taiwan may be following a strategy of “taking care of itself” because of the lack of possible support from the West, and secondly, it has been determined that Taipei may want to maximize the pressure that the West will exert on China with the benefits it has obtained from the West by provoking China.
[1] “USApproves $1.1 Bn Taiwan Arms Sale, Angering China”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62775544, (Date of Accession 24.12.2022).
[2] “Taiwan’s Hidden Missiles Can Hit Bijing, Shanghai”, Asia Times, https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/taiwans-hidden-missiles-can-hit-beijing-shanghai/, (Date of Accession 24.12.2022).
