On January 17, 2024, the bill to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine was rejected by a large majority in the German Bundestag.[i] A similar step from Germany after the US Congress calls into question the West’s support for Ukraine. The Scholz Government was reluctant to accept such demands from the beginning of the war. Despite this, Berlin’s support for Kiev continued uninterruptedly. In fact, the Berlin Government recently agreed to double its military aid to Ukraine to 8 billion euros in 2024. [ii]Therefore, Germany’s views on the war in Ukraine began to be discussed.
Germany wishes to end the devastating effects of the prolongation of the war on itself and the European economy. Germany may now have realized that there is no way to stop Russia by military means. Berlin has been trying to put the burden of this war on the United States of America (USA) for a long time. If this is not possible, it argues that the support given to Ukraine should be shared equally and fairly among the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
According to the Scholz Government, further arming Ukraine is not a definitive way to end the war. On the contrary, it causes the war to prolong further. In this process, the Berlin Government insisted on sending Leopard-2 tanks to Kiev for a long time. Only after the USA agreed to send its Abrams tanks to Kiev, Germany took a similar step and approved the sending of Leopard-2 tanks.
Germany is against the West’s polarization against both Russia and China. In this context, for example, it is disturbed that Ukraine’s NATO membership is supported by political motives and does not accept such a membership process. The war in Ukraine revealed an important military reality about Germany. Germany, which minimized its army after the Second World War, was not prepared for war. This attracts attention as an important national security issue. The fact that the majority of Leopard-2 tanks are not in a usable condition and need modernization reveals the lack of maintenance of the weapon-vehicle inventory in the German Army. These problems have led to an increase in Germany’s dependence on the USA.
However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is trying to avoid following the USA’s world politics as much as possible. In this context, he envisions that Germany can be influential in the Eurasian world with an autonomous foreign policy. The Scholz Government, which opposes the traditional bloc mentality of the West, is concerned that NATO will become more polarized with Russia over Ukraine and will inevitably be dragged into a war. Because the fight against Russia is a European policy that Germany must follow. In order to defend Ukraine and restore the security of Europe, the Berlin Government had to turn to the fight against Russia.
It is known that there are differences of opinion within the coalition government in Germany regarding the fight against Russia. So, could this situation cause Germany’s policy regarding support for Ukraine to change? This is a question mark. Germany stands out from other Western actors due to its cautious attitude towards Ukraine. Germany, which opposed the sending of Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine for a long time last year, also views Ukraine’s attack against Russian territory negatively.
The refusal to send long-range Taurus missiles that could hit Russian territory to Ukraine is a clear indication of this. In this context, Germany may think that a Ukrainian counterattack would be pointless. In fact, this strategy may be a plan that emerged with the support of the UK and the USA. Germany clearly shows that it is against this.
As a reminder, while Ukraine requested long-range Taurus missiles to be able to attack Russia, Germany had worked to shorten their range before delivering them to Kiev. As a result, Germany is disturbed by the polarization in the global system in recent years. The Russia-Ukraine War created both consolidation and disintegration within the Western World. [iii]Germany, on the other hand, sees cooperation with Eurasian powers as a way to get rid of the hegemony of the Atlantic powers in the long term. For this reason, Germany takes a stance on the multipolar world by talking about the dangers of the bloc that occurred due to the Ukrainian War. Ultimately, Berlin’s view of Ukraine will remain cautious.
[i] “485 German Votes Banned ‘Ukrainian’ Taurus, Scholz Must Decide”, Bulgarian Military, https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/01/18/485-german-votes-banned-ukrainian-taurus-scholz-must-decide/, (Date of Access: 13.11.2023).
[ii] “Scholz Coalition Set To Double Germany’s Military Aid To Ukraine To £7bn”, Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/12/olaf-scholz-double-germany-military-aid-ukraine/, (Date of Access: 13.11.2023).
[iii] “Germany Mulls Sending Ukraine Taurus Long-Range Missiles”, Liga Net, https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/berlin-obsujdaet-s-mbda-postavku-ukraine-modifitsirovannyh-krylatyh-raket-taurus-reuters, (Date of access: 23.08.2023).
