The “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” movement, which has dominated politics in the United States in recent years, is now facing its own small fractures. MAGA has long been consolidated by Donald Trump’s charismatic teachings and anti-media campaigns. Slogans like “deep state,” “fake news,” and “anti-elite” formed the foundation of this movement. However, this rhetoric has begun to become hollow, turning into promises that weren’t fully realised for MAGA’s electoral campaign. One indicator of this shift has been Trump’s failure to fulfil promises regarding the Epstein files.
Trump has long exploited the Epstein affair to hope in the public that justice would be served. These promises were met with enthusiasm, particularly among conspiracy theory enthusiasts and those who believed in “exposure of the deep state.” However, in the summer of 2025, the Justice Department and FBI officially released a statement declaring that the “client list” that had become publicly expected did not exist. At this point, a serious rift emerged between Trump’s promises and the movement’s base. Some MAGA supporters have outright described this as a “betrayal.” This symbolises not only disappointment but also a political rupture that has led to a questioning of faith in Trump.
The Wall Street Journal’s report on a salacious birthday card allegedly written by Trump further deepened this division. While this report may have initially appeared tabloid, it reshaped the understanding of various factions within MAGA toward Trump. Some completely denied the report, labelling it as a “forged document” and a “conspiracy theory.” This group once again viewed Trump as a victim of the system. Meanwhile, more sceptical groups demanded clarification of such reports. Trump’s silence, however, only fueled suspicion. This incident became not just a media manipulation or smear campaign, but also a symbol of the ideological rift within MAGA.
MAGA has now divided into three distinct factions. The first group stands out as “media defenders.” This group includes figures like Elon Musk, Charlie Kirk, and Steve Bannon. These figures believe that Trump is being targeted by the media and are acting out of a protective instinct. They believe that such scandals are a natural consequence of Trump’s struggle with the system, and the media, as always, is trying to silence the “real leader.” This group prioritises victimhood rhetoric to bolster Trump’s position.
The second group consists of MAGA members who demand transparency. Figures like Elizabeth Wheeler, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Michael Flynn stand out on this front. While these individuals still support Trump, they have now shifted to a more questionable position. Issues such as the non-disclosure of the Epstein files and withholding “grand jury” testimony from the public create trust issues within this segment. For them, the issue is no longer simply defending Trump; if the public’s interests are truly being served, this must be proven with documentation. This group demands clarification of ambiguities and believes that Trump’s past promises are empty if this is not achieved. The third and most extreme group consists of radical conspiracy theorists. According to this part, Epstein is also a Mossad agent and a blackmailer who recorded the secrets of US elites. Even Trump’s policies towards Iran are being evaluated in this context. This group views Trump’s “Midnight Hammer” attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, as a step shaped by these conspiracies. Yet, Trump has historically adopted an anti-war and isolationist foreign policy. This contradiction has caused confusion even among his most radical supporters.
The revelations following Operation Midnight Hammer also fueled these theories. Media reports indicated that the Fordo facility in Iran was severely affected, while other facilities suffered far less damage. This discrepancy triggered both transparency groups and conspiracy theorists. Some claimed that Trump was attempting to distract the public with this operation. Others claimed that it was a joint decision by deep seated organisations within Israel and the US.
It remains to be seen what path Trump and the Republicans will take from now on. Trust in the Trump administration is being shaken. This process could lead to new leadership candidates within the party. Figures like Ron DeSantis, JD Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy, in particular, are quietly trying to turn grassroots discontent to their advantage. MAGA’s post-Trump future may depend on how influential these figures are and degree to which the movement’s grassroots are seeking change. If Trump fails to recoup this loss of trust, MAGA could be consigned to history as a once-effective but disintegrating grassroots movement. However, Trump’s populist reflexes and political manoeuvrability suggest it’s too early to completely rule out this scenario.
The upcoming election cycle could redraw the ideological landscape not only of the Republican Party but also of the American right. Therefore, the political developments that unfold in the coming period will determine not only Trump’s fate but also the survival of the MAGA movement. The movement’s fragmentation could trigger new political trends within the grassroots and pave the way for different leadership figures. However, the possibility of Trump’s resurgence should not be completely dismissed. The dynamic nature of the American right is always susceptible to sudden ruptures and surprise outbursts. This climate of uncertainty could reshape the political balance not only for MAGA but also for the entire country.
