On October 8, 2022, a huge explosion occurred on the Kerch Bridge which connects Russia with Crimea and is the main route of logistical support to the Russian elements in the south of Ukraine after this incident, the bridge became unusable.[1] This event was a great source of motivation for Ukraine. Thus, after the attack, which is thought to have been carried out by the National Security Service of Ukraine, Mykhaylo Podolyak Advisor to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, stated that all the lands captured by Russia will be taken back.[2]
Kerch Bridge is the main connection point between the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. After Russia annexed Crimea in violation of international law in 2014, the 19 kilometers long bridge built by the Moscow government to connect Crimea and the Russian mainland was inaugurated in 2018 by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The attack on the bridge which has a symbolic meaning in terms of the importance given by the Moscow administration to Crimea revealed the security weakness of the Russian Army.
Undoubtedly; this event caused a harsh reaction from Russia and as of October 10, 2022, the Russian army started bombing various regions of Ukraine including Kyiv.[3] This shows that the war will turn into a comprehensive invasion scenario. In other words, Russia spread the war to all Ukrainian lands again by taking actions similar to February 2022.
When these events are considered together with the partial mobilization decision of Russia and the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia in violation of international law, it can be said that Moscow has a tendency to escalate the war. However, this tendency also seems to exist on the Ukrainian side, due to the attack on the Kerch Bridge.
In fact, this move of the Kyiv administration is extremely important as it shows that Ukraine wants to liberate all Russian-occupied lands including Crimea. Because the bridge, which symbolizes Russia’s power in Ukraine was heavily damaged, Russia lost its prestige, the supply line used by the Moscow administration was damaged and Russia’s security weakness in the Crimea point was seen once again.
More importantly, it has been understood that Moscow’s threat to use nuclear weapons doesn’t have any deterrent effect. Because the Kyiv administration is taking very determined actions to ensure its territorial integrity. It announced to the whole world that it wouldn’t compromise on this issue through the Kerch Bridge. Therefore, the threats that considered Moscow’s annexed areas as Russian territory[4] and referred to the nuclear doctrine weren’t enough to make Kyiv take a step back.
However, Russia does not think of any alternative other than victory in Ukraine although it cannot afford it. This is why Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons and uses the energy trump card. The Kremlin is giving the message that the war, in which Moscow will be defeated will lead to a process in which the whole world will lose. Therefore, the Moscow administration does not intend to withdraw without achieving a result that it will describe as a victory in Ukraine. Partial mobilization decisions and referendums are also related to this. Therefore, the Kyiv administration knew that the attack on the Kerch Bridge would not go unanswered. Thus, the Moscow administration responded to this attack by bombing many cities in Ukraine, especially Kyiv.
At this point, it’s necessary to make predictions about the course of the war. Currently, Russia is aware that Ukraine is showing serious resistance in the eastern and southern regions. For this reason, it may want to defocus the Ukrainian Army by making an invasion from the north, namely Belarus. In other words, the Kremlin may try to create a suitable basis for a comprehensive invasion of Ukraine by putting pressure on the Minsk administration and making Belarus a front country.[5] However, how Belarus will look at this issue is debatable.
On the other hand, it can be said that Russia believes that in order to win the war, the support of Western countries to Ukraine should be stopped. Because the Ukrainian Army showed more serious resistance than expected thanks to the support of the West and at this point, it attacked many regions. In this context, it wouldn’t be surprising if Putin concentrated on the threat of nuclear weapons and energy blackmail. However, it’s obvious that the West and especially the United States (US)-the United Kingdom (UK)duo, namely the Anglo-Saxon alliance want to bring Russia to its knees in Ukraine.
In this context, the US– England duo wants the Moscow administration to experience the trauma that the Soviet Union experienced in Afghanistan during the current war. The reason why there is no significant progress in the negotiation processes that will result in a ceasefire is that Kyiv knows that it’s not alone and on the other hand, Moscow sees stepping back as a heavy defeat not only against Ukraine but also against the West. Therefore, the Kerch Bridge attack and Russia’s response indicate that the war will continue until one side imposes its military superiority on the other.
Consequently, the attack on the Kerch Bridge which is supposed to be carried out by the Ukrainian Security Service made the security weakness of Russia visible to the whole world and the Kyiv administration gave the message that it wouldn’t negotiate the issue of establishing the territorial integrity of the country including Crimea. On the other hand, Russia interpreting the defeat in the war as undermining its claim to be a great power increased the dose of its attacks on Ukraine. These events have shown that the war will intensify even more. Because neither side thinks of any other option but to win.
[1] “Взрыв на Крымском мосту-спецоперация СБУ,-УНИАН”, Focus, https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/532265-vzryv-na-krymskom-mostu-specoperaciya-sbu-unian, (Date of Accession: 12.10.2022).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “Escalation: Kyiv, Other Cities under Russian Attack in Apparent Retaliation for Kerch Bridge Blast”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/escalation-kyiv-other-cities-under-russian-attack-in-apparent-retaliation-for-kerch-bridge-blast/, (Date of Accession: 12.10.2022).
[4] Şafak Oğuz, “The Dangerous Dimension in the Russia-Ukraine War: The Nuclear Threat”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/the-dangerous-dimension-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-the-nuclear-threat/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
[5] Sabir Askeroğlu, “Lukaşenko’nun Abhazya Ziyareti”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/lukasenkonun-abhazya-ziyareti/, (Date of Accession: 13.10.2022).
