One of the busiest intersections of global diplomatic traffic, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), held in Belém, Brazil, located in the Amazon basin, between November 10-21, 2025,[i] has turned into the most intense stage of geopolitical reckoning between the Global South and the Western bloc, far beyond being a platform for environmental consensus against expectations. In this new era, where the climate crisis has evolved past being a mere ecological disaster scenario to become a matter of national security concerning the survival of states, the concept of “Green Transformation” has also lost its innocence.
As the world prepares to abandon its fossil fuel-based energy equation, it is entering a much more ruthless and arduous arena where lithium batteries are replacing oil barrels and cobalt & nickel supply chains are replacing natural gas pipelines. As of today, this paradigm shift in energy indicates the beginning of a new era of colonialism, or what is also known as the “Green Imperialism” era, in which those who control raw materials will shape the global order, rather than a peaceful transition process.
Hosted by the President of Brazil, the Global South countries gathered at the summit described the carbon neutral targets imposed by the West as a strategy to hinder development [ii] and raised the most organized protest in history. In particular, African, Latin American, and Southeast Asian countries refuse to allow critical minerals extracted from their territories to be transferred to Western markets in raw form and at rock-bottom prices. These countries are rejecting the role of being a passive raw material repository in the global supply chain by insisting that the processes of refining mines and converting them into value-added products be carried out on their own soil.
Initiatives by countries rich in critical minerals, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile, Indonesia, and Bolivia, to form a cartel similar to the Organization of the Mineral Exporting Countries (Mineral OPEC) are causing significant concern in the corridors of Brussels and Washington. Indeed, all critical sectors of the 21st century, ranging from electric vehicles to the defense industry, renewable energy turbines to digital technologies, are fundamentally dependent on these rare earth elements and strategic minerals.
The People’s Republic of China undoubtedly stands at the center of these new raw material wars. Through a strategy meticulously woven over decades, the Beijing administration controls nearly 80% of global capacity, if not in the extraction of rare earth elements, then in their processing and refining. While striving to break free from its dependence on oil, the Western world has unwittingly grown dependent on China. This monopoly position in the supply chain gives China a highly functional and deterrent advantage in its hegemonic struggle with Washington.
Beijing’s restrictions placed on the export of elements vital to chip production, such as gallium and germanium, in 2025 have brought European and American tech giants to the point of halting their production lines. This situation heralds a new era in which free market rules are shelved and the rules are dictated by the state capitalism. Although Western capitals have launched a diplomatic offensive targeting African and Central Asian countries to establish alternative supply routes bypassing China, the infrastructure network Beijing has established in these regions under its Belt and Road Initiative is largely thwarting these efforts.
This profound shift in energy geopolitics presents a complex equation for the Republic of Türkiye, bringing both risks and opportunities. Ankara has successfully pursued a strategy of becoming an energy corridor and terminal country during the fossil fuel era, reinforcing its geostrategic importance through pipelines that transport resources from the East to Western markets. However, the era of critical minerals requires access to mining sites, processing facilities, and secure logistics networks rather than pipelines.
Türkiye’s greatest advantage in this new era is the win-win-oriented, humanitarian and deep-rooted network of relationships it has built across the African continent over the past twenty years. In contrast to the West’s colonial past, the equal partnership model offered by Türkiye is met with great sympathy in African capitals. From the Sahel belt to the East African steppes, Turkish companies’ acquisition of mining licenses and the positive relationships they have established with local communities set Ankara apart from traditional colonial powers, giving it a moral and strategic advantage in the race for raw materials.
On the other side of the energy equation, the Organization of Turkic States mechanism functions as a geopolitical lever. The territories of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan are home to rare elements, considered to be the oil of the digital age, beyond traditional valuables such as uranium, gold, and copper. Ankara’s Joint Energy and Mining Strategy developed with this geography transforms the Caspian-crossing Middle Corridor from a simple logistics route into the lifeblood of the global supply chain.
Türkiye’s capacity to deliver Asia’s minerals to European industry makes it a safe haven. In particular, the discovery in the Beylikova field in Eskişehir has been certified as the world’s second-largest reserve, and the operation of this field is accelerating Türkiye’s evolution from an importer to a technology-exporting game changer. The current reserve potential significantly strengthens Türkiye’s hand both within the Western alliance and in regional power competition.
Post-COP30 climate diplomacy has shed its idealism of saving the planet and has instead adopted a reflex to protect the industrial capacities of states. The European Union’s introduction of tools such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has brought the concept of “Green Protectionism” into the literature while erecting invisible walls in front of developing countries. Trade is becoming fragmented in this process, where World Trade Organization rules are effectively suspended. Türkiye, meanwhile, is striving to adapt its industry to new standards through Customs Union modernization and the Green Deal alignment process, while also continuing to seek alternative markets.
The picture we see in the final days of 2025 is clear; the power hierarchy is no longer measured in barrels of oil. The decisive factor in the new era is the question of who controls battery technologies, chip raw materials, and renewable energy infrastructure. The Belém Summit declared that the Global South has comprehended this reality and demands to be a founding actor rather than merely a menu item at the table.
Türkiye, with its geographical location, diplomatic flexibility, and production capacity, is putting forward a vision of becoming a balancing and transformative center of power along the North-South and East-West axes, rather than taking sides in these chaotic raw material wars. Ankara’s presence in the heartland and sphere of influence stretching from Africa to Central Asia makes it one of the indispensable actors in this new energy equation. The future belongs not to those who extract the ore from the ground, but to those who can process it with intelligence, technology, and fair distribution.
[i] “What did COP30 achieve?”, European Commission, 1 Aralık 2025, https://climate.ec.europa.eu/news-other-reads/news/what-did-cop30-achieve-2025-12-01_en, (Access Date: 16.12.2025).
[ii] “Speech by President Lula at the Opening of COP30, in Belém”, Brezilya Hükümet Resmi Sitesi, 10 Kasım 2025, https://shorturl.at/E5Y4G,(Access Date: 16.12.2025).
