The coordinated attacks launched by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran on 28 February 2026 directly threaten the already fragile geopolitics of South Asia. In particular, the border regions located within the triangle of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran exhibit a structure prone to instability due to weak state capacity, smuggling networks, and the presence of armed groups. Therefore, a possible scenario involving a ground operation against Iran carries the potential to evolve into a multi layered security crisis not only through classical interstate conflict dynamics but also with the involvement of non-state actors.
While discussions in the global public sphere continue regarding the possibility of a United States ground operation against Iran, various scenarios are also being developed concerning ethnic groups within Iran. In this context, the situation of ethnic, radical (fundamentalist), or other types of organizations opposing the Islamic regime in Iran has become a subject of interest.
The Baloch is an ethnic group living in both Iran and Pakistan and, particularly due to their Sunni identity, may experience tensions with the Shia administration in Iran. For this reason, it can be argued that Baloch organizations targeting Iran have a strong fundamentalist character. On the other hand, while Baloch organizations in Pakistan also possess a fundamentalist character, they are more prominently characterized by their ethnic separatist objectives. Naturally, these issues are not limited to ethnic and sectarian lines but also have deep historical and socio sociological dimensions.
Ethnic groups in Iran are considered as instruments that the United States could potentially use within the context of a possible military intervention. The sensitive and fragile ethnic structures of states, when combined with the risk that external interventions may trigger internal dynamics, can create extremely dangerous situations. Indeed, the sectarian and ethnic fragmentation dynamics that emerged after the 2003 invasion of Iraq demonstrated how such interventions can produce long term instability.
In the first quarter of the twenty first century, one of the elements with which the Islamic Republic of Iran has struggled most in order to ensure its national security has been Baloch organizations. Although the Iranian state succeeded in eliminating Jundullah, which was among the leading of these organizations, through military means, successor structures such as the “Army of Justice (Jaish al Adl)” have continued to maintain their presence around the Pakistan border and have occasionally carried out attacks within Iran that can also target civilians. Although these organizations claim to defend the material and moral rights of the Baloch people, they are generally regarded as marginalized fundamentalist groups that have difficulty gaining support from society, particularly in Iran.
These organizations have, for many years, carried out attacks against security forces in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan region and then crossed into Pakistan to take refuge, a situation that has led to Iranian reactions toward Pakistan and the deterioration of diplomatic relations. It is argued that these Baloch organizations targeting Iran, rather than having a separatist character, aim at changing the Islamic regime. In contrast, it is emphasized that Baloch organizations in Pakistan possess a strong ethnic separatist identity in addition to their fundamentalist characteristics, with the primary objective being the establishment of an independent Balochistan.
In recent years, a significant increase has been observed in attacks carried out by Baloch organizations in Pakistan targeting security forces, including civilians.[i] These movements, concentrated in the Balochistan region, have been organized around demands such as the distribution of natural resources and political representation. In this context, large scale infrastructure projects such as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) further increase tensions in the region. Baloch groups view these projects as the exploitation of local resources by external actors and, for this reason, may carry out attacks against both the Pakistani state and Chinese investments.
Following attacks by Baloch organizations, Pakistan has criticized both the Taliban administration in Afghanistan and India, which it claims support these groups. For example, after the attack carried out by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) against Pakistan on 1 February 2026, the Islamabad government asserted that this organization received support from Afghanistan linked fundamentalist groups, particularly the Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Afghan Taliban behind it.[ii] In short, due to the Baloch issue, Pakistan may face major problems with its neighbors, particularly Iran, as well as Afghanistan and India. As a result of the Taliban in Afghanistan improving its relations with India over the past year, the conjuncture in South Asia has changed rapidly, and Pakistan has launched a war against Afghanistan due to multiple interconnected security issues.
The conjuncture in South Asia has become much more dangerous with the coordinated attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran. In this context, the current conflict environment in Iran has the potential to create certain impacts at both regional and global levels in terms of the Baloch issue. First, the weakening of central authority in Iran may create security gaps in border regions, which could expand the operational space of Baloch armed groups. Second, increasing instability along the Iran Pakistan border may make the already fragile security relations between the two countries even more vulnerable. Third, the possibility that the United States and Israel may use ethnic groups within Iran as indirect instruments could transform the conflict into a proxy war.
Fourth and finally, the possibility that the United States may conduct a ground operation from the strategic port city of Chabahar in Iran’s Sistan and Balochistan region,[iii] may lead to an irreversible wave of instability in South Asian geopolitics, potentially resulting in fragmentation. Indeed, the province of Sistan and Balochistan stands out as a strategic region through which Iran opens to the Indian Ocean. This region, where Sistani and Baloch ethnic groups predominantly reside, has the potential to directly shape the future of South Asian geopolitics. As the attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran continue, much more analysis is needed regarding this strategic region. The Baloch issue may trigger a major wave of crisis that could progress with a domino effect not only in Iran but across the South Asian line extending to Pakistan and China.
[i] “Pakistan’daki saldırılar ve Güney Asya’da Değişen Güç Dengeleri”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/anka-analizler/pakistandaki-saldirilar-ve-guney-asyada-degisen-guc-dengeleri/, (Date Accesed: 27.03.2026).
[ii] “Pakistan: Belucistan’da 145 ‘Hindistan destekli terörist’ öldürüldü”, Euronews, https://tr.euronews.com/2026/02/02/pakistan-belucistanda-145-hindistan-destekli-terorist-olduruldu, (Date Accessed: 27.03.2026).
[iii] Since the potential ground operation by the United States against Iran and the importance of Chabahar in this context constitute a separate subject of discussion that should be evaluated in terms of military strategies, they have not been addressed in detail in this analysis.
