Analyzing the details of the rare earth elements or mining agreement between the United States (US) and Ukraine from a political and geopolitical perspective is of utmost importance. First and foremost, it is essential to determine whether this agreement is a form of compensation equivalent to military aid, or a strategic move by the US to counter China’s growing hegemony in the global economy. The answers to these questions can be found through an analysis of the current global geopolitical landscape and the doctrines shaping energy policies. Daniel Yergin’s theory that “energy security is a holistic approach and affects all security policies” appears to have merit and can be tested in the case of Ukraine.[1]
Even before beginning his second term, Donald Trump’s campaign promises largely focused on boosting the national economy of the US.[2] Achieving a more protectionist economic model and increasing growth rates once again would only be possible through stable energy policies and a less fragile global geopolitical environment. This notion has become clearer in light of the Ukraine crisis.
Rare earth elements are used in battery technologies for electric vehicles, especially in the production of lithium-ion batteries. For instance, elements such as neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) are used in the production of powerful magnets. Devices like smartphones, computers, LED screens, lasers, and televisions require rare earth elements due to their optical and electrical properties. These elements are also critical for military equipment such as radar systems, missile guidance systems, night vision devices, and magnetic levitation technologies. Additionally, rare earth elements are used in wind turbines, solar panels, and other renewable energy systems. For example, samarium (Sm) and neodymium (Nd) are used to make the strong magnets found in wind turbines.[3]
In recent years, the growing importance of rare earth elements and their application areas have highlighted Ukraine’s potential in this field. The US’s demand for rare earth elements reflects the ongoing geopolitical rivalry with China and the global race in high technology. These minerals are of strategic importance, particularly in battery technologies, high-tech manufacturing, and military equipment.[4] Their use in sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy systems, and the defense industry can directly influence a country’s advantage in the global power competition. The US aims to diversify its supply of these resources due to China’s dominance in the production and export of rare earth elements. The US’s dependence on China for these critical materials poses a significant security risk.
Indeed, the US imports a substantial amount of its rare earth elements from China.[5] As of 2022, 72% of the US’s rare earth imports came from China.[6] This figure underscores the US’s reliance on China and highlights the strategic importance of these materials in global trade. Moreover, 70% of processed rare earth elements are sourced from China.[7] This reveals that China is not only the supplier of raw materials but also the central hub of the global supply chain in terms of processing and turning these elements into finished products.
This dependency renders the US vulnerable to China’s trade policies and potential embargoes. Therefore, the US’s search for alternative sources of rare earth elements emerges as a critical strategy in the global power struggle. Ukraine, as part of this strategy, holds significant potential for the US with its rich mineral deposits and rare earth reserves. Ukraine’s mineral resources are pivotal not only for energy security but also for the US’s technological and defense-related competition with China.
Ukraine’s rare earth elements are not only vital for energy security but also serve as a determinant of its position in the global competition. Ukraine’s possession of these strategic resources affects the geopolitical rivalry between China and the US. Therefore, bringing Ukraine’s mineral resources to the global market could undermine China’s leadership in this field.
The potential of Ukraine’s rare earth elements enhances its strategic significance in the realms of global energy security and technological competition, while this agreement offers a substantial economic opportunity for Ukraine. However, Ukraine’s ability to effectively utilize these resources will depend on infrastructure development, attracting foreign investment, and minimizing imbalances in the global supply chain. This agreement could accelerate Ukraine’s economic development and strengthen cooperation with the West in energy security. In the long term, however, the management of these resources and adapting to global market dynamics must be shaped in a manner aligned with national interests. Despite Trump’s hardline rhetoric and policies, this agreement holds the potential to revitalize Ukraine’s long-struggling economy. Furthermore, it could help reintegrate post-war Ukraine into the global economic system.
[1] Yergin, D. (1991). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. Free Press.
[2] “Trump’s tariff tactics carry higher economic risks than during his first term”, AP, https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-trade-inflation-mexico-china-canada-5e0cad1ba2d9ec086ddf8999b0807dff, (Erişim Tarihi: 03.03.2025).
[3] Binnemans, K., Jones, P. T., Blanpain, B., et al. (2013). “Rare-earth economics: The contrast between the USA, EU and China.” Journal of the Less Common Metals, 319, 16-19.
[4] International Energy Agency (IEA). (2021). The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions. IEA, Paris.
[5] U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). (2022). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022.
[6] Plumer, B., & Popovich, N. (2021). The U.S. Is Critically Dependent on China for Rare Earth Minerals. The New York Times.
[7] Harjani, A. (2021). China Dominates the Supply Chain of Rare Earth Elements: What it Means for the U.S. CNBC.
