In the Asia-Pacific, as North Korea continues to rapidly develop its military and missile capabilities, signs of regional polarization are emerging. In response to this threat, South Korea has increasingly sought support from the United States (US) and Japan to enhance its military deterrence and other defense and offensive capabilities. In 2023, it was even claimed that South Korea and the United States would conduct joint nuclear drills against North Korea. Although there have been talks between the parties on this issue, they have not yet been concluded. It may have been calculated that such an exercise would further provoke North Korea and ties would be completely severed.
The foreign and security policies of both South Korea and Japan have become proactive in recent years. Compared to Tokyo, Seoul tries to avoid as much as possible steps that could escalate regional tensions. This is because Seoul does not want to further polarize Pyongyang. This is because North Korea, with its recent decisions, has made South Korea a direct target and completely destroyed the hopes for unification. Japan, on the other hand, is the most important country that the US cooperates with as part of its integrated deterrence strategy. With the inclusion of South Korea, the deterrence effect of the allied states against North Korea will be further expanded. But at the same time, this strategy will increase North Korea’s anger and the danger of nuclear war will escalate.
It should be recalled that the change of power in South Korea last year paved the way for the improvement and further development of Washington-Seoul relations. However, the US-South Korean rapprochement is also leading to heightened tensions in the region and an increased risk of war. Since last summer, the US and South Korea have stepped up military exercises in the region, including in Japan. In the wake of North Korea’s ballistic and hypersonic missile test, the United States, South Korea and Japan have been conducting joint exercises.[i]
This military support by the US leads to a further escalation of the North Korean threat to South Korea. Due to this escalating threat, South Korea is more channelled into regional military alliances. Indeed, the security of the Asia-Pacific is threatened by North Korea’s ballistic missile tests. The US feels that it cannot counter these multiple threats alone. That is why it is joining forces with South Korea and Japan. Washington can only defeat this rival through a multi-coalition.
South Korea and Japan are at the center of the “threat from North Korea”. They are therefore the main allies of the US in the region. However, South Korea is wary of triggering a major coalition war. In particular, Seoul considers that there is no way to resist North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Therefore, under normal circumstances, South Korea does not want to escalate the crisis by joining the US alliances. However, it can be said that normal conditions have disappeared and an extraordinary situation has emerged in the region.
South Korea faces a dilemma as to whether to support the United States in its regional defense and security policies. This is often interpreted as the Seoul government’s inexperience in foreign policy. At the same time, the Seoul government is likely to make mistakes in its defense-security policies. It seems that Seoul has decided to shift to an aggressive foreign policy in order to counter North Korea’s threats. This means following the dangerous crisis politics of the United States. Japan is making a similar mistake. Both countries revised their defense-security strategies and adopted a more aggressive posture. As a result of US encouragement and guidance, South Korea and Japan are unwittingly becoming a polar opposite to North Korea.
Washington’s policy of polarization could eventually lead to the establishment of a collective defense pact in the region. This may be the US objective: to deepen the crisis and then use it as a pretext to establish a collective defense pact in the region. It can therefore be argued that in 2024, there will be stronger talk of a defense alliance in the Asia-Pacific with Japan, South Korea and the United States at its center.
In the event of a deep and irreversible deterioration of the security environment, the states of the region may begin to think that the only way to stop North Korea is to join this collective defense organization. Therefore, it can be argued that South Korea will cooperate more militarily with the United States in the future and the regional security environment will deteriorate further as a result. The most practical outcome could be the establishment of a collective defense organization in the Asia-Pacific.
[i] “S. Korea, Us, Japan Stage Joint Naval Drill Involving Aircraft Carrier”, Korea Times, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/01/205_367061.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.01.2024).
