The recent debate between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris symbolizes a significant moment in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election cycle.
In the aggregate of national polls compiled by analyst Nate Silver, Harris is currently ahead of Trump with 48.9% to 46.0%. This slight increase under Harris’s leadership is particularly noteworthy considering that it experienced a gradual decline before the debate on September 10, 2024, dropping from a four-point lead on August 25, 2024, to just two points during the debate. According to the latest survey by the internet-based polling company YouGov, 56% of participants believe that Harris won the debate, while only 26% think Trump did. This highlights how effective Harris’s performance was and indicates that there is potential for a significant boost from the debate.[1]
Meanwhile, Trump has faced challenges that could weaken his campaign momentum, such as discussions regarding Haitian immigrants and a recent assassination attempt against him.
Despite Harris’s current lead in national polls, the path to securing the presidency is complicated by the Electoral College system. According to Analyst Silver’s model, Harris needs to achieve at least a two-point victory in the popular vote to increase her chances of winning the Electoral College, and to be a 94% favorite, she must secure a four-point lead. Currently, the chance of winning the Electoral College is 43.5% for Biden, while Trump has a 56% probability.
The results of the mentioned Electoral Board’s trend are quite significant. Even if the referendum is predicted to be won by Silver’s model with 50.3% to 48.5%, the likelihood of Harris winning the popular vote and losing the Electoral College is 24%. Major racing states such as Pennsylvania, where Harris is leading with only a 0.5-point difference and 19 votes, appear to be critical to both candidates. In short, one should not fall into the illusion that a candidate who appears to be leading in election polls has a high chance of winning.
Kamala Harris’s performance in the last debate has provided crucial support for her campaign at a critical juncture. This performance has not only demonstrated his readiness to confront Donald Trump directly, but it has also allowed him to present himself to undecided voters as a capable leader. Compared to Biden’s performance in the last debate, it has led Democrats to be more favorable towards Harris’s presidency. Immediately following Harris’s performance, there was an increase in the poll numbers reflecting voters’ positive reactions. However, the permanence of this “debate momentum” remains uncertain. Political momentum may be temporary, and various factors can influence its longevity.[2]
An important issue is the potential for discussions that often surround Trump. Trump’s negative statements or attitudes about Harris that he could share with the public could mean that any achievement Harris has made could quickly be overshadowed. Trump’s unfounded statements on various issues, along with ongoing claims, could divert attention away from Harris’s achievements and instead reignite discussions about her character and policies. Such distracting elements can complicate Harris’s efforts to reinforce and build upon the gains of her campaign.
Additionally, Trump’s announcement that he will not participate in further debates indicates that it is a strategic move to control the narrative. By avoiding further confrontations, Harris has reduced the risk of making mistakes that could be exploited by the Democratic campaign. This decision can be seen as an effort to both solidify the loyalty of its base and protect its weak points from public scrutiny. However, this also means that Harris needs to find other platforms to engage voters, and strengthen her message by appearing in town halls, rallies, and the media to keep her campaign in the spotlight.
As the November elections approach, the 2024 race is proving to be extremely competitive. Both candidates face unique challenges and opportunities that will significantly impact their election prospects. Harris’s rise in national polls, supported by her effective debate performance, presents a significant opportunity for her campaign. However, the complexities inherent in the Electoral College system pose significant obstacles.
In this election environment, both candidates need to adapt their strategies in a way that resonates with undecided voters, especially in key battleground states, in order to navigate successfully. For Harris, this involves presenting a clear vision for the future while highlighting policy proposals that address leadership qualities and the concerns of everyday Americans. It needs to emphasize its commitment to issues that resonate deeply with voters, such as health, education, and economic stability. In response, Trump will likely continue to rely on rhetoric that historically mobilizes support, trusting in his established base. Trump’s approach will require strengthening the themes of nationalism and economic revival and presenting himself as the candidate who can restore America to its former greatness. However, this strategy also carries the risk of alienating moderate voters who may be in search of a more unifying message.
As a result, the implications of the Trump-Harris debate extend far beyond the sudden shifts in poll numbers. The changing dynamics of this race will stem from a complex interaction of economic factors, voter sensitivities, and the strategic choices made by both campaigns. As November approaches, the focus will increasingly shift to states that are more battlegrounds, meaning key areas where the outcome will depend on voters’ reactions to the contrasting visions presented by the candidates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for both campaigns striving for victory in what is likely to be one of the most significant elections in recent history.
[1] “Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?”, Theconversation.com, https://theconversation.com/harris-gains-in-post-debate-us-national-polls-but-will-her-gains-be-sustained-239059, (Accessed: 18.09.2024).
[2] “Trump rules out another presidential debate against Harris”, BBC.com, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn9l9500vg7o, (Accessed: 18.09.2024).
