The meeting between Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Washington is drawing attention not only in terms of bilateral relations but also regarding the geopolitical balance in Latin America. In recent years, relations between the United States (U.S.) and Brazil have been volatile due to trade tariffs, ideological differences, and competition over strategic resources. For this reason, the talks at the White House are considered significant not only for economic cooperation but also for managing political tensions.
The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Brazilian products stand out as one of the major crisis points in relations between the two countries. In particular, the additional 40% tariff imposed on Brazilian products in 2025 has caused serious concern within the Brazilian government. Although Washington officially justified this decision on economic grounds, the process is seen as directly linked to Brazilian domestic politics. This is because the Trump administration has cited the lawsuits filed against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro as one of the justifications for the tariffs. [i]
Bolsonaro’s conviction on charges of leading a coup attempt is further deepening political polarization in Brazil. Trump’s open support for Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is fueling debates that Washington is directly interfering in Brazil’s domestic politics. In particular, Trump’s request in a letter to Lula to drop the charges is increasing diplomatic tensions between the two countries. The Lula administration views this approach as an interference in Brazil’s sovereign affairs.
However, it appears that the two leaders have been working to develop a more measured communication style in recent times. A brief meeting during the United Nations General Assembly signals a thaw in relations. Trump’s positive remarks about Lula and his statement that “we’ve found good chemistry” indicate that neither side desires a complete breakdown in relations. [ii]This is because current global economic conditions are driving both Washington and Brazil toward pragmatic cooperation.
Critical minerals are one of the most critical topics of the meeting. Brazil’s reserves, particularly of rare earth elements, are of strategic importance to the United States. The Washington administration aims to reduce dependence on China during Trump’s second term. For this reason, efforts are being made to establish alternative supply chains outside of China. Within the framework of this strategy, Brazil is emerging as a key partner for the United States.
Rare earth elements and critical minerals are among the fundamental elements of today’s technological competition. Used in areas such as electric vehicle batteries, semiconductor chips, missile systems, wind turbines, and satellite technologies, these minerals hold not only economic but also military value. In particular, resources such as lithium, cobalt, and niobium provide a strategic advantage in global power competition.
The U.S. administration is attempting to break China’s dominant position in critical minerals. It is reported that China controls approximately 60% of the world’s rare earth reserves and accounts for 90% of global refining capacity. This situation is viewed as a national security issue by Washington, as a significant portion of the U.S. defense industry relies on China-based supply chains. Brazil, on the other hand, holds the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves, making the country more valuable from a geopolitical perspective.[iii]
However, the Brazilian government has adopted a more nationalist approach regarding the control of these resources. The Lula administration does not want a model reliant solely on raw material exports. The Brazilian government advocates for the processing of critical minerals and the production of value-added goods within the country. For this reason, it is taking a cautious approach to granting unrestricted access to U.S. companies.
At this point, the Lula administration’s developmentalist economic approach comes to the fore. Lula has established himself as a leader who, in previous terms, sought to balance social welfare policies with economic growth. His approach, which advocates for the state to play a more active role in strategic sectors, is also evident in the area of critical minerals. Consequently, there is a significant divergence between Washington’s free-market-oriented expectations and Brazil’s policies prioritizing state control.
The issue of tariffs, however, remains the most sensitive aspect of economic relations. Due to the additional tariffs imposed by the U.S., Brazil’s exports to the U.S. have fallen to their lowest level in recent years. The 18.7% decline in exports in the first quarter of 2026 is considered a notable development for the Brazilian economy.[iv] Tariffs on steel, agricultural products, and industrial goods, in particular, are putting pressure on Brazilian exporters.
Although the Washington administration has recently eased some tariffs, the Brazilian side believes this is insufficient. In particular, the Trump administration’s 15% blanket tariff on global imports is undermining the competitiveness of Brazilian products. For this reason, the Lula administration is seeking to secure economic concessions during the talks.
The issue of combating organized crime is also expected to be addressed in the talks. In recent years, drug networks, arms trafficking, and transnational criminal organizations centered in Latin America have posed a security threat to both the U.S. and Brazil. In particular, illegal mining activities and illicit drug routes in the Amazon basin have made security cooperation between the two countries imperative.
For the U.S., Brazil is not merely an economic partner. It is also a key player in the power dynamics of Latin America. The Washington administration is concerned about the growing economic influence of China in the region. The Lula administration’s active role within BRICS and its close ties with China are being closely monitored by the U.S. For this reason, the Trump administration does not want to lose Brazil entirely to the Chinese sphere of influence.
Lula, on the other hand, is pursuing a foreign policy that supports a multipolar world order. While maintaining relations with the United States, the Brazilian government is also seeking to establish balanced ties with China, Russia, and other rising powers. This approach demonstrates Brazil’s desire to act more independently within the global system.
Consequently, the Trump-Lula meeting is not viewed merely as a diplomatic engagement between the two leaders. The meeting is seen as a process that could yield significant outcomes regarding trade wars, competition over critical minerals, the struggle for influence in Latin America, and global power balances. Fully normalizing relations between the two sides appears unlikely in the short term. However, economic interests and strategic needs are steering Washington and Brazil toward controlled cooperation. In particular, potential agreements regarding critical minerals are emerging as a key factor that could determine the direction of U.S.-Brazil relations in the coming period.
[i] Bush, Daniel, and Leandro Prazeres. “Brazilian President Lula to Discuss Economic and Security Issues with Trump at the White House”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8d84g963eeo, (Accessed: 17.05.2026).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid.
