The civil nuclear cooperation agreement signed by the Donald Trump administration with Saudi Arabia is not considered only as a technical arrangement that deepens the partnership between the two countries in the field of energy. The agreement marks an important transformation in the understanding of security and diplomacy that the United States (USA) has adopted in the Middle East for many years. The Washington administration had previously linked Saudi Arabia’s access to American nuclear technology to the condition of diplomatic normalization with Israel. The fact that the Trump administration has largely abandoned this basic condition shows that US foreign policy is moving towards a more pragmatic and economic interest-oriented line instead of an ideological and security-centered approach. In this respect, the agreement in question has the potential to reshape not only the US-Saudi Arabian relations, but also the balances of power in the Middle East and global competition.
In the post-Cold War period, US Middle East policy has largely been built on an understanding that puts Israel’s security at the center. Especially in strategic areas such as civil nuclear technology transfers, Washington has acted by observing regional balances and has linked technology sharing to strict political conditions. The fact that the Trump administration’s agreement with Saudi Arabia changes this traditional approach reveals that there is a divergence in the regional priorities of the United States. Although Trump later stated in his statement that the agreement is conditional on participation in the Abraham Agreements, it is noteworthy that such an obligation is not explicitly included in the publicly reflected content of the agreement. This situation shows that Israel’s security concerns are no longer Washington’s sole determining priority.
One of the fundamental reasons behind this change is the increasingly intense global competition between the US and China.[i] In recent years, the Beijing administration has developed important partnerships with the Gulf Countries in the fields of energy, infrastructure and technology within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Saudi Arabia has also stated at various times that it is open to alternative cooperation in the field of nuclear energy while deepening its economic relations with China. Therefore, from Washington’s perspective, Saudi Arabia’s shift towards Chinese technology is considered not only an economic but also a strategic risk. The main message given by the Trump administration with the agreement shows that it has become more important for the United States for Riyadh to work with Washington instead of Beijing in the field of nuclear energy. Thus, the agreement becomes a new front in the great power rivalry beyond energy cooperation.
The “America First” approach that gained prominence during Trump’s second presidential term is also considered one of the key dynamics behind this agreement. The administration prioritizes agreements that will yield economic gains and strategic advantages over ideological objectives in foreign policy. The fact that American companies will take part in Saudi Arabia’s large-scale nuclear energy investments creates long-term commercial opportunities for the US economy. In particular, the fact that companies such as nuclear reactor manufacturer Westinghouse will be able to participate in multibillion-dollar projects strengthens the economic dimension of the agreement. In addition, Washington also aims to limit the influence of China and Russia in the global nuclear energy market.
However, the most debated aspect of the agreement is the risks it poses regarding the proliferation of nuclear weapons. According to information reflected in the press, the agreement allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its own territory to a certain extent. Moreover, it is claimed that there are no binding control mechanisms in place that would definitively prevent the country from turning to a military nuclear program in the future. In this respect, the agreement departs from the nuclear cooperation model signed with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2009, which includes strict inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Although technically having a uranium enrichment capacity does not directly mean the production of nuclear weapons, the possibility that such an infrastructure could be used for military purposes in the future raises serious concerns for the international public.
This situation has drawn particularly harsh criticism in Israel. Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman has argued that Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear program could trigger a “crazy arms race” in the entire Middle East. Given the widespread belief that Israel has nuclear weapons, although it does not officially recognize them, it is not surprising that the Tel Aviv administration is distancing itself from the formation of a new nuclear capacity in the region. [ii]Considering that Israel has identified Iran’s nuclear activities as one of the biggest threats to its national security in recent years, the possibility of Saudi Arabia achieving similar technical capabilities makes the perception of regional security more complicated.
Criticisms of the agreement are not limited to Israel alone. Democratic members of the US Congress also argue that the arrangement could further accelerate Iran’s nuclear ambitions and increase regional instability. At the core of these criticisms lies the international relations dynamic known as the security dilemma. The steps taken by a state to increase its security may be perceived as a threat by other actors and may trigger mutual armament processes. Saudi Arabia’s development of its nuclear infrastructure may increase Iran’s motivation to further develop its own nuclear capacity, as well as affect the long-term strategic calculations of regional actors such as Türkiye, Egypt and the UAE.
When evaluated from Riyadh’s perspective, the agreement does not only have a security dimension. Saudi Arabia aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependence under the “Vision 2030” program. In a country where electricity consumption is rapidly increasing, nuclear energy is seen as one of the alternatives that will strengthen energy supply security in the long term. Nuclear energy is of strategic importance in terms of reducing the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on the economy, reducing the use of oil in domestic consumption and being able to export more oil. For this reason, the Riyadh administration considers nuclear technology not only as a security issue, but as an important part of the economic transformation program.
The political implications of the agreement also draw attention. Saudi Arabia has not had to officially recognize Israel or back down from its position on the Palestinian state while obtaining the strategic nuclear cooperation that it has long demanded from the United States. This situation shows that Washington evaluates that a comprehensive normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel is not possible in the short Dec under the current conditions. The ongoing conflicts in Gaza and the tension with Iran have significantly altered the regional diplomatic landscape. The Trump administration also appears to have chosen to focus on more achievable goals in line with this reality.
On the other hand, the timing of the agreement is also noteworthy. Washington’s efforts to strengthen its relations with the Gulf Countries at a time of continuing military tension between the United States and Iran are considered as part of a strategy to re-Decertify the structure of the regional alliance. Saudi Arabia’s distant approach to escalating tensions during the war process and supporting the Deceleration of tensions between the United States and Iran have contributed to making relations with Riyadh even more important for Washington. Therefore, the nuclear agreement can be read not only as cooperation in the field of energy, but also as an attempt by the United States to reshape the Gulf security architecture.
As a result, the nuclear agreement signed by the Trump administration with Saudi Arabia is an important milestone that reveals the changing priorities of US foreign policy. The traditional Israeli-centered approach is being replaced by a more pragmatic strategy that prioritizes global competition with China and centers on economic interests. However, the effects of the agreement on the proliferation of nuclear weapons, regional balances of power and the security dilemma will continue to be discussed for many years. This cooperation, which supports Saudi Arabia’s energy transformation, could also be the beginning of a new era of strategic competition in the Middle East. In the coming period, the way the agreement is implemented, the inspection mechanisms of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the reactions of Iran will be among the main elements that determine the future of both regional security and global nuclear Deconfliction.
[i] Bush, Daniel. ”Trump’s Nuclear Deal with Saudis Jettisons Longstanding US Demands”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz05lx0xpero, (Date of Access: 26.07.2026).
[ii] Ibid.
